DraftKings MLB Picks April 16. Tonight’s menu: Fried Rattlesnake
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks April 16. Tonight’s menu: Fried Rattlesnake
We have a 13 game main slate for our DraftKings MLB picks tonight. This is one of the largest slates on the year, and it would be a full 15 games if they moved the start time back 30 minutes. The Yankees and Tigers are being difficult and starting at 6:35 eastern instead of 7:05. The worst part is that we can’t stack Yankees against Chris Sale or use the suddenly dominant Matt Boyd against the weak hitting Pirates. Don’t worry….there’s a turbo slate for that!
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Rain wont be an issue tonight, but the wind could be a factor in spots. There is a 14 mph crosswind in San Diego making a pitchers park feel even more like one. There is the same brisk wind blowing in from right in Arlington that there was last night.
If you didn’t have Christian Yelich, you didn’t place. I used Yelich in two lineups. One survived even with Richards thanks to Gallo and Goldy. The other was a disaster despite Bauer and Yelich
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
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DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Tyler Glasnow ($10,600): The Orioles have only faced Glasnow 15 times. They have just two hits and one run to go with a staggering nine strikeouts. This offense is starting to wake up, but I doubt they get much against Glasnow. Glasnow is 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts in 17 innings. Good luck guys. You’re going to need it.
Stephen Strasburg ($10,300): The Giants have actually done well against Strasburg, so I can see a fade here since he doesn’t have dominant numbers. The Giants are hitting .270 in 100 at bats, but they do only have one homer and eight runs to go with a solid 25 strikeouts. Strasburg got roughed up a bit by the Phillies in his last start, and really hasn’t been all that sharp this year. The strikeouts are keeping him afloat. That said, this is easily the worst offense he has faced this year. I still like Strasburg here.
Robbie Ray ($9,900): His skill set (high strikeouts and left handed) fits SunTrust Park, so it’s no really a shock that ray has dominated the Braves. They are hitting just .189 against him in 37 at bats with just one homer, three runs, and 12 strikeouts. Ray’s career ERA on the road is more than a run and a half lower than at home. He’s not only safe, but he could also be overlooked here.
Middle Tier:
Jose Quintana ($8,400): Quintana is usually safe away from Wrigley. He even pitched well there last week. At any rate, the Marlins are only hitting .192 in 52 at bats against Quintana with two homers and 13 strikeouts, but they have scored eight runs. Quintana may give up a few runs here or there, but the elevated strikeouts this year are a welcome sight. They also make him worth taking a chance on in a matchup like this.
Max Fried ($8,000): It was pretty apparent that Fried wasn’t quite ready last year, but that experience still did him well. Fried has been outstanding this year. He dominated the Cubs in his only home start, and now gets a weaker team that that here. Fried hasn’t put up big strikeout numbers. but everything else is dominant. He still hasn’t given up a run. That will change at some point, but the chances of him getting hit hard here are pretty slim. I love Fried at this price.
Nick Margevicius ($7,900): The Rockies really aren’t dangerous away from Coors, even though thye got to Lucchesi a bit last night. Still Margevicius has pitched well wherever he’s ended up. He has a 1.69 ERA in his first three starts, but the most impressive thing is the 0.63 WHIP. He’s not bleeding points with baserunners. Like Fried, Margevicius looks underpriced tonight.
Bargain Pitchers:
Aaron Sanchez ($7,300): It’s been a long road, but Sanchez appears to be back. He boasts a 1.69 ERA in three starts this year with one of those coming at Fenway where his defense failed him. The Twins are hitting a strong .297 off of Sanchez, but they only have two homers and five runs in 64 at bats. Sanchez is not a big strikeout guy, so if he allows more than three runs, you wont get value out of him even at this price. However, with the way he’s started the year, I don’t really see that happening.
Kyle Gibson ($6,400): Was last year a fluke? It’s easy to think so since Gibson has been a disaster to start the season. Here’s the thing with Gibson though: he’s always a slow starter, and he always puts up respectable numbers somewhere along the line. The current Jays are hitting just .179 against Gibson in 28 at bats with three runs and four strikeouts. There’s decent potential here.
My picks: Glasnow, Fried; Fried, Margevicius
DraftKings MLB stack options
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Dylan Bundy:
Bundy has a 8.76 ERA this year in three starts. He also doesn’t have good numbers against the Rays, but Kevin Kiermaier is the one making those look bad. The fact is that most of this team has never faced Bundy or has little experience off of him. Bundy is struggling, so I’m attacking with Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, Tommy Pham, and Brandon Lowe. This stack will be in at least one of my builds.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tyler Mahle:
Tyler Mahle has solid numbers against the Dodgers, but there isn’t anything solid about Mahle right now. This looks like a place to attack, especially with the Dodger lefties. Bellinger, Max Muncy, Corey Seager, and Joc Pederson all look like really good plays. Justin Turner hits righties good enough to throw him out there too.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Steven Matz:
Matz has been solid this year, but he just hasn’t been able to solve the Phillies at any point in his career. They are hitting .299 in 77 at bats with three homers and 13 runs with only 15 strikeouts. There isn’t enough upside to make me want to chase this. Rhys Hoskins has the only homer and three of the RBI. Nick Williams, Scott Kingery, McCutchen, Maikel Franco, and Bryce Harper are the guys that have hit Matz the hardest even though Harper doesn’t have great numbers. McCutchen, Franco, and Odubel Herrera all have exit velocities that top 90 against Matz.
Texas Rangers vs. Matt Harvey:
The Rangers are hitting .314 with a homer and seven runs in just 35 at bats. Joey Gallo has a three run bomb for his only hit off of Harvey. Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo stand out here, but Harvey gets pummeled by righties as well. Elvis Andrus looks very good here as well. We could chase the power of Hunter Pence here or go with Delino DeShields instead. I don’t think there is a bad pick.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Mike Minor:
Just stack this game again. The teams combined for 19 runs last night, and the two starting pitchers for tonight are even worse than last night. The wind didn’t do much to quash offense last night, and likely wont again. The Angels are hitting .382 with five homers and ten runs in just 55 at bats against Minor. Zack Cozart is colder than Hudson Lake in February, but he has homered twice against Minor. Trout, Lucroy, and Peter Bourjos have the other homers. Pujols and Andrelton Simmons look very tempting as well.
Kansas City Royals vs. Reynaldo Lopez:
While a couple of the pieces from the Adam Eaton deal are starting to perform for Chicago, this is one that definitely has not. Lopez boasts a 12.15 ERA in three starts this year. That’s 18 runs in just 13.1 innings pitched. The Royals took him for four in four innings earlier this year, and that was his best start of the season so far. Ryan O’Hearn, Whit Merrifield, and Alex Gordon have all homered off of him in 86 at bats. The whole team is hitting .314 against Lopez, so there isn’t really a bad piece of this stack beside maybe Lucas Duda, who is just 2-12.
Houston Astros vs. Marco Estrada:
Estrada’s numbers aren’t terrible, but the Astros have pounded him and he has allowed five homers in four starts. Houston is hitting .284 with four homers and 15 runs in just 88 at bats. Josh Reddick is dirt cheap, and he has two of the homers. Brantley and Tyler White have the others. Add in a hot Jose Altuve and the always dangerous Alex Bregman, and you have a stack that could put up big numbers.
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
Joey Votto is 2-5 with a homer and two RBI against Kenta Maeda, but he is about the only Reds player with any kind of success against Maeda. This is a time where I wouldn’t really go after Maeda.
It’s a big surprise that Ronald Acuna has the only Braves homer against Robbie Ray. If you are going to use any Braves, Acuna should be it.
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Hanley Ramirez has slumped himself out of the regular lineup, but Cleveland may have to make an exception here. Hanley is 6-12 with a homer and six RBI in his career against Mike Leake. He also has a 98.9 mph exit velocity against Leake. Jose Ramirez is 3-10 with a homer. Brad Miller is also worth a look since he is 4-9, he just has no counting stats.
Anthony Rendon and Matt Adams have both driven in a pair against Dereck Rodriguez last year. Rodriguez hasn’t been allowing much for baserunners, but if someone is on, there’s a good chance one of these guys will pick him up.
The Mets have hit Nick Pivetta just hard enough for me to lose interest. Travis d’Arnaud is still cheap, and has one of the Met homers against Pivetta. Conforto has the other, but he’s still worth a look at the price.
Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker have both homered against Jose Quintana, but neither of them are hitting better than .250. Brian Anderson hits lefties well, and has three of the eight RBI against Quintana. Whatever you do, stay away from Starlin Castro. He is a brutal 0-18 against Quintana in his career.
Same with yesterday, I don’t trust the White Sox enough to stack them, but Yonder Alonso and Jose Abreu have already homered off of Jorge Lopez. I certainly can’t fault you for using Moncada or Tim Anderson either.
Jonathan Schoop is very familiar with Aaron Sanchez from their days in the A.L. East. Schoop is 9-28(.321) with a homer off of Sanchez. I wouldn’t go heavy on Twins tonight though.
You can throw Pablo Lopez at the Cubs if you want, but I don’t think it’s that great of an idea. Richards is better than Lopez, and the Cubs roughed him up some last night. Schwarber, Rizzo, and Jason Heyward look like the Cubs to go with tonight.
Jack Flaherty was knocked around by the Brewers a little earlier this year, so I’m staying off of him. However, I’m playing a Brewer or three. At this point, if you aren’t playing Christian Yelich, you must really hate money. Ryan Braun has homered twice off of Flaherty in just seven at bats, and driven in half the runs the Brewers have against him.
On the other side of this, Brandon Woodruff has been about average. The Cardinals have done pretty well against him, in particular Paul DeJong (2-4 with a homer) and Marcell Ozuna. Kolten Wong had a couple of hits off of him earlier this year too.
I kind of want to take a few shots at Kyle Gibson, but the Blue Jays aren’t exactly a formidable offense. Teoscar Hernandez went deep last night. He and Smoak would be my targets if I want exposure.
The only Rockie I would trust right now is Nolan Arenado. Maybe Trevor Story against a lefty.
I will say this for Jon Gray: I trust him enough not to stack against him, which is saying something since the Padres are hitting .289 with four homers and 12 runs on only 90 at bats. Hunter Renfroe has two of those homers. Manny Machado and Wil Myers have the others. I would limit my Padres exposure to them, if at all.
Beiber has been very solid this year, so I’m not sure if I really want to go after him. If I do, it will be with some of the reasonably priced Seattle bats. Omar Narvaez and Jay Bruce are about the only two that wont break the bank.
Buster Posey is 9-22(.409) with two RBI against Strasburg. That’s what counts as good numbers against him. Brandon Crawford is dirt cheap, and is 5-16 with five RBI. The only one with more RBI is Gerardo Parra, and that damage was done in Colorado. Yangervis Solarte has the homer, but he is just 2-11 lifetime against Strasburg.
I’m not really looking to use a pitcher against Oakland right now, but I will used a cheap Stephen Piscotty and Mark Chapman against McHugh. They have both homered off of him. Marcus Semien is the best bet. He is 11-29(.379) with a homer and three RBI against McHugh.
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