MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks: Tuesday, April 16th, 2019
By Joe Metz
Welcome back to the MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article. In this article, I will run you through the best stacks to build your cash and GPP lineups around and narrow down your player pool!
After an action-packed Monday slate of baseball where we saw home run after home run, we turn our sights to a MASSIVE 15-game MLB Daily Fantasy slate that has a bit of an earlier lock time (6:35pm ET).
With so many games on the main slate, let’s not waste any time and get right into the implied totals:
Red Sox (4.1) @ Yankees (4.0)
Pirates (4.2) @ Tigers (3.9)
Giants (3.4) @ Nationals (4.7)
Mets (4.4) @ Phillies (4.7)
Cubs (4.7) @ Marlins (3.9)
Orioles (3.1) @ Rays (5.0)
Diamondbacks (3.7) @ Braves (4.4)
Blue Jays (4.0) @ Twins (4.6)
Cardinals (4.4) @ Brewers (4.7)
Angels (N/A) @ Rangers (N/A)
Royals (4.5) @ White Sox (4.6)
Rockies (3.3) @ Padres (3.8)
Astros (4.7) @ Athletics (3.9)
Indians (4.1) @ Mariners (4.0)
Reds (3.5) @ Dodgers (4.5)
While only 1 of the 30 teams in action has an implied total of at least 5 runs, there should be a ton of offense tonight seeing how many potential gas-cans taking the mound.
Starting with this slate, I will be using 2019 statistics for the article unless otherwise noted. We see most batters now with a 45-50 PA sample size and most pitchers with 2-3 starts under their belts. Obviously we cannot 100% say this will be their level of production throughout the season, but we can look to it with more confidence than before.
With that being said, let’s get into the top stacks of the slate!
MLB Daily Fantasy – Primary Cash Game Stack: Houston Astros
The Astros have found their rhythm and have rattled off 9 consecutive wins, looking to make it 10 tonight against gas-can Marco Estrada. Estrada’s key weakness is his lack of ability to keep the ball on the ground. Against a hard-hitting offense like Houston, that’s a recipe for disaster. Below are Estrada’s 2019 numbers through his first few starts;
Marco Estrada | OAK
K%: 11.5%
SwStr%: 8.6%
SIERA: 6.63
wOBA: 0.420 vs RHB / 0.218 vs LHB
FB%: 65.2%
Hard%: 38.6%
The numbers above paint the picture perfectly. He can’t keep the ball on the ground, he can’t strike people out, and his outlook is looking extremely bleak with his SIERA over 6. The one standout stat is his 0.218 wOBA allowed against lefties. While he’s traditionally been a reverse-splits pitcher, this is a bit extreme and I am still willing to target lefties against him as well.
(1) George Springer (FD: $4,100 / DK: $4,400)
(2) Jose Altuve (FD: $4,600 / DK: $4,800)
(3) Alex Bregman (FD: $3,700 / DK: $4,600)
(4) Michael Brantley (FD: $3,800 / DK: $4,200)
On the season so far, both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman hold wOBAs over 0.410 against right-handed hitting. Bregman comes in at a very reasonable price tag on FanDuel while Altuve also brings a 0.289 ISO to the dish.
While both George Springer and Michael Brantley have gotten off to cold starts against righties, they are more than capable given the matchup and their career success. Brantley has also recorded 8 hits over his last 5 games, while Springer has knocked in 5 runs over the same span.
Virtually anyone in the lineup is stackable and while the top 4 take priority, Carlos Correa and Robinson Chirinos stand out as two ways I’ll look to expand and differentiate a bit. Chirinos has posted 5 hits in his last 4 games and a wOBA of 0.379 against righties early in the season. Correa has posted an impressive 0.250 ISO against righties.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Secondary Cash Game Stack: Chicago Cubs
Unlike the Astros, the Cubs have been much more disappointing to open up the season. With that being said, they have a mouth-watering matchup against Pablo Lopez of the Marlins, who’s 2019 numbers are below;
Pablo Lopez | MIA
K%: 25.8%
SwStr%: 11.9%
SIERA: 3.32
wOBA: 0.330 vs RHB / 0.315 vs LHB
FB%: 30.4%
Hard%: 32.6%
The numbers above indicate that there should be some positive regression on the horizon for Lopez, as his 3.32 SIERA is about half of his actual ERA and his K% is respectable. With that being said, he’s still allowed 19 hits and 11 runs in 15 innings pitched thus far.
The Cubs are an offense I can feel confident in within cash games against a pitcher in poor form, and the below are my preferred targets:
(2) Kris Bryant (FD: $3,700 / DK: $4,200)
(3) Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4,000 / DK: $4,400)
(4) Javier Baez
(6) Willson Contreras (FD: $3,800 / DK: $4,400)
If I were to tell you Willson Contreras was leading the Cubs in wOBA (0.526) and 2nd on the team in ISO (0.440) against righties, you’d call me crazy, but here we are. He’s cracked 3 HR over his last 2 games and this is a player you want to hop on when they’re hot, so there’s no better time than now.
Both Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have gotten off to slow starts at the dish, but posted wOBAs over 0.340 against righties last season while Rizzo posted a 0.205 ISO and only struck out at a 9.6% clip. Both are reasonably priced, especially Bryant, while Javier Baez has posted a 0.362 wOBA and 0.271 ISO this season against same-handed pitching. My one concern with Baez is his 32% strikeout rate, but his upside is undeniable.
If you want to expand the stack and add a low owned leverage play, Jason Heyward has been scorching right-handed pitching to the tune of a 0.518 wOBA, 0.481 ISO, 39.3% hard-contact rate with a ridiculous 2.8% strikeout rate.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Primary GPP Stack: Tampa Bay Rays
One of, if not THE biggest surprise on the young season is the early-season success of the Tampa Bay Rays. They’ll look to continue their early season success against Dylan Bundy of the Baltimore Orioles, whose 2019 numbers are below;
Dylan Bundy | BAL
K%: 29.3%
SwStr%: 13.6%
SIERA: 4.19
wOBA: 0.500 vs RHB / 0.406 vs LHB
FB%: 51.5%
Hard%: 33.3%
The strikeout rate is elite and so is the swinging strike rate, but when he’s not striking batters out, he’s giving up a ton of hits, and fly balls at that. The Rays are still an under-the-radar offense to target, especially with their prices rising and the popular reluctancy to pay these price tags, but they have GPP-winning upside in one of the top matchups of the day.
(1) Austin Meadows (FD: $4,200 / DK: $5,000)
(2) Tommy Pham (FD: $3,800 / DK: $4,500)
(3) Ji-Man Choi (FD: $2,700 / DK: $3,600)
(4) Yandy Diaz (FD: $3,700 / DK: $3,800)
Austin Meadows may have dethroned Khris Davis as the hottest hitter in baseball, belting 4 home runs over his last 5 games while also adding 11 RBIs and 13 hits in that span. His 0.494 wOBA and 0.383 ISO out of the leadoff spot with a guaranteed 5 ABs is hard to pass on in GPPs, even for his price tag.
Tommy Pham and Yandy Diaz both find themselves at a similar price point on FanDuel and both have gotten rather unlucky to start the season, posting BABIPs of 0.278 or lower (0.235 specifically for Diaz).
Both are rocking hard-contact rates over 40% with Pham specifically posting a 57.1% hard contact rate. Both are in line for some progression at the plate and this could finally be the matchup we get it.
Ji-Man Choi has also posted a hard-contact rate over 40% (43.3%) and a wOBA of 0.335 against righties and comes at a mega-discount with some big bats around him.
If you want to add another piece or two to the stack, look towards Brandon Lowe (0.422 wOBA / 0.33 ISO vs RHP) out of the 5 spot who has been red hot, or Kevin Kiermaier (0.437 wOBA / 0.341 ISO vs RHP) who brings a power/speed combo from the back-end of the lineup.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Secondary GPP Stack: Texas Rangers
Although I did not write an article last night, the Texas Rangers were a staple stack in both my cash and tournament games and helped my lineup to a 170-point finish, only to have it ruined by a Christian Yelich fade (he hit 3 HR…).
Nonetheless, the Rangers racked up 12 runs against the Angels last night and should be able to replicate that tonight against Matt Harvey, whose 2019 numbers are below:
Matt Harvey | LAA
K%: 15.7%
SwStr%: 13.8%
SIERA: 5.32
wOBA: 0.373 vs RHB / 0.530 vs LHB
FB%: 31.4%
Hard%: 40.0%
It’s safe to say that Harvey is not even close to a shell of his former Cy Young self, and we can attack him from both sides of the plate with confidence. While I have listed the Rangers as a GPP stack, I would be fine targeting them in all formats, starting with the batters below:
(1) Shin-Soo Choo (FD: $3,500 / DK: $4,300)
(2) Danny Santana (FD: $2,400 / DK: $3,800)
(3) Elvis Andrus (FD: $4,100 / DK: $4,900)
(5) Joey Gallo (FD: $4,200 / DK: $4,800)
Danny Santana has played the last two games for the Rangers and has not disappointed, going 3-6 overall with 3 runs, 2 RBIs and a pair of stolen bases. While his power upside is not incredibly high, he’s shown an elite ability to produce at near-minimum price.
Both Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo have the potential to do a ton of damage here against Harvey from the left side of the plate. Both have posted wOBAs over 0.410 against righties and ISOs over 0.200, while Gallo has posted an insane 0.448 ISO against righties. Obviously we can expect this to normalize a bit, but when you are talking about isolated power normalizing for Joey Gallo, it won’t go down much.
Elvis Andrus is getting pricey, but he’s been producing out of the 3-spot in the lineup. Hes recorded 10 hits over his last 5 games with 2 HRs and 8 RBIs en route to a 0.435 wOBA against righties. His 0.484 BABIP shows that he may be getting a bit lucky, but against a pitcher like Harvey, I’m willing to ride it out.
If you want to go full-fledged on a Rangers stack and get more exposure across multiple lineups, Nomar Mazara is another lefty that hits in the heart of the order and while his 0.338 wOBA isn’t necessarily elite, his 52.9% hard-contact rate spells disaster for Harvey.
Next. MLB DFS Picks & Pivots April 16th. dark