MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday’s MLB DFS slate was a good example of eating the chalk and understanding the loss when you fade it. Going into the day it seemed like Trevor Bauer would be the clear SP1 chalk even in a risky match-up with Seattle and as the day went on the buzz for Yu Darvish as the clear SP2 became obvious that this pairing was going to be popular and once lock hit – to see Bauer just under 60% in GPP’s with Darvish above 30% as the two highest owned arms, I had made the decision to fade on such a large slate and hope these arms fell on my side of variance. That certainly did not happen, as Bauer/Darvish were 1-2 in pitcher scoring and combined with chalky bats like Kole Calhoun (30%+) all going off, this was a night where eating the chalk worked and fading it, became a lesson for another day.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Tuesday Pitching Breakdown:
With the Yankees/Red Sox and Tigers/Pirates kicking off just before 7PM EST tonight, those games are left off the Main Slate but do not worry – we still have 13 games to choose from and it looks like clear weather throughout which is also a nice sign! Temperatures in nearly every game are in the 60+ degree range and we have the wind blowing out in a handful of parks which should make this an interesting slate.
With yesterday’s chalk fest at pitcher fresh in mind, I want to look at this slate within that lens and try to think through who could end up being popular – with that, there are three name arms with favorable match-ups that I could see dominating ownership.
Stephen Strasburg ($19.8K) gets a home start against the San Francisco Giants after having to navigate through the Phillies and Mets line-ups in his first three outings. Jon Gray ($16.9K) was chalk city last start in San Francisco and with another road assignment in Petco against the Padres, I think folks will chase the K upside here that has delivered two 20+ fantasy point outings in his first three starts.
Jose Quintana ($16.2K) should get the Darvish treatment today with his match-up against the Marlins and after seeing Yu dominate last night, it is hard to argue with Quintana who has put up 20 and 38 fantasy points in two of his first three outings this year (first was in relief). Darvish had shown nothing previous to last night as was massively owned, while Quintana will have the game log watchers salivating – it seems like the chalk is fairy clear at first glance.
We can approach this one of two ways – we can simply dive into the chalk and look to be different elsewhere or we can look to fade it and get leverage on the field.
Let’s look at these options and play devil’s advocate:
Strasburg in 2018 was far less strikeout dependent in his home ballpark, with a 26.4% K rate at home which was a 5% drop off his road marks with the mark dropping even further (19%) at home versus lefties. The Giants projected line-up has only a 19.4% K rate against RHP and is expected to have 5 of their 8 batters from the left side. Quintana has an 8% swinging strike rate since 2018, only a 21% K rate against RHB and will face a Marlins line-up that is expected to be entirely from the right side with only a 16% K rate.
Let me be clear – any of these options are fine, but if they are going to be popular, let’s find a way in GPP play to pivot off them.
MLB DFS – Pivot Pitching:
Max Fried ($14.9K) is an interesting mid-range arm on this slate, sitting below Quintana/Gray, opposing a big name in Robbie Ray and pitching in a some of the nicest weather on the slate so my guess is he goes a tad bit over-looked. Fried has a 27% K rate and 12% swinging strike rate since the start of 2018, padding those numbers with a 34% plus K rate against left-handed batters.
The issue is that Fried will likely only see one LHB in David Peralta so maybe the K upside is limited but against a right-handed heavy team in Arizona, it could play into some of Fried’s other strengths. Fried has limited RHB to a 0.59 ISO and 60% GB rate and after his first two starts of 2019, I think even a 4-5 K game is enough from Fried at this price point.
Against the Cubs and Rockies, Fried has gone 6 innings in both starts, allowing a total of 6 hits, 0 ER and 1 walk versus 9 K’s with 2 wins notched and 22 and 27 FPTS accrued. If Fried can get a similar performance here tonight and push you over 20 fantasy points at this price point – he will make for one of the best point per dollar plays on the slate.
There are two pitchers who are identically priced at $17.8K on FantasyDraft, sitting in kind of this no mans land, below the Strasburg/Glasnow tier but above the Gray/Quintana range that feels like it may get totally over-looked with Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty.
Maeda in many ways is a discounted Strasburg – which may seem silly to say, but the pitcher and match-up are actually quite similar here tonight. Both arms are massive home favorites (-170 for Maeda and -190 for Strasburg), while the opponents (Reds and Giants) have two of the lowest four IRT on the Main Slate. Strasburg has a 28.4% K rate and 12.1% swinging strike rate since 2018 while Maeda has a 28.1% K rate with a 14.6% swinging strike rate.
Now much like Strasburg, this match-up for Maeda comes against a Reds team with a projected lineup K rate under 20% however where Strasburg saw his K rate drop at home, Maeda’s actually increased to over 29% at home based off his 2018 numbers.
The risk with Maeda is always pitch count because he pitches for the Dodgers and Dave Roberts loves to troll us. After going for 106 pitches in his first start, Maeda has only thrown 81 and 92 pitches in the following two starts which caps his upside.
Speaking of upside, Flaherty, is an electric arm in his own right with a 29.5% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate that rivals Maeda and Strasburg but the opponent presents a far riskier pat against the Milwaukee Brewers who are still hitting home runs off the Cardinals from last night.
Flaherty is coming off a masterful performance against the Dodgers, striking out 8 over 6 IP on his way to 29 fantasy point, a similarly dangerous line-up loaded with lefties. The fact the Brewers offense went off last night and has already faced Flaherty this season (4 IP, 7 hits and 4 ER) likely keeps people off Flaherty entirely and while I understand the risk, I also see the upside in GPP’s.
Flaherty relies heavily on his slider, a pitch he gets a 45% whiff rate on and even in this projected Brewers dangerous offense, 6 of the 8 projected hitters have 30% or higher whiff rates against that pitch type.
So while Flaherty did struggle in his first outing against Milwaukee this year, looking back at 2018 with an almost identical line-up, Flaherty had 3 of his 4 outings where he struck out 7 or more, went for 23 or more fantasy points including a 7 inning 13 K, 37 fantasy point performance so the upside is there for Flaherty if you are willing to take on some risk.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
Let’s start with the old free square – Chris Davis ($3.9K) who despite putting up 18 and 21 fantasy points in 2 of his last three in Fenway remains at this crazy low price and simply allows you to do whatever you want in your builds. Davis has the power upside, is making hard contact and give you insane roster flexibility – do not over think this one, simply start here and go whatever route you want.
The Dodgers lefties look to be in an ideal spot today and RHP Tyler Mahle, a pitcher who has given up a .273 ISO, 45% HC rate and 43% FB rate since the start of 2018 and will face a loaded Dodgers line-up. The big news here is the status of Cody Bellinger ($10.4K) who left last nights game after getting plunked on the knee – with the questionable tag and latest start on the slate, Belly may be someone people just ignore today with the assumption he sits but this is a guy I want to watch for news on because if we can get him at low ownership due to injury risk in this spot – I am all in.
Joc Pederson and Max Muncy both have .300+ ISO marks against RHP since 2018 and with Mahle relying on his low 90’s fastball nearly 70% of the time, this could be a batting practice spot for the Dodgers batters in a late night hammer.
The Tampa Bay Rays have the highest IRT on the slate, the only team above 5, as they take on erratic Orioles RHP Dylan Bundy. Bundy is one of the best arms to attack in DFS because despite his high K ability he also gives up massive HC rate, fly ball rates and .240+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate.
The top of this Tampa order is pricey with Austin Meadows and Tommy Pham both well over $9K but you can balance that with mid-range bats like Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz wo are both in the mid $7K range tonight.
The Mets may not be an overly popular stack against Nick Pivetta in Philadelphia but with the combination of early season struggles for Pivetta and a left-handed power lineup from New York, there is a chance for a low owned GPP winning Mets stack here. Pivetta relies well over 50% on his fastball and so far in 2019 his velocity is down to 94 MPH from where it was at 95 MPH+ in 2018.
So far in 2019 Pivetta is giving up a .324 ISO and 43% HC rate to left-handed batters with 8 ER and 2 HR in 40 plate appearances. A three man stack of Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Robinson Cano allows you to strike against Pivetta’s weaknesses, and you could round out a stack with the pricey Pete Alonso who has a .317 ISO with a 45% HC rate against RHB. With 60-70 degree temperatures and the win blowing out to RF at 8 MPH, the Mets stack could be a tournament difference maker.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build:
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P: Kenta Maeda/Jack Flaherty
P: Max Fried
IF: Cody Bellinger
IF: Corey Seager
IF: Max Muncy
OF: Joc Pederson
OF: Chris Davis
OF: Austin Meadows
UTIL: Tommy Pham
UTIL: Ji-Man Choi
Slate Overview: After seeing the chalk arms dominate tonight, I want to make a concerted effort to pivot off them tonight and try to get different with my arms and hope to land on the side of variance.With so much focus, at least that i expect, to be on Strasburg/Quintana/Gray – pivoting off them with arms that have demonstrated 20-30 fantasy point upside and surrounding them with two of the best stacks on the board, give you a path to leverage on this large slate in GPP’s.
Enjoy it all!
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