UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown – Tuesday 4/16/19

Welcome to the latest edition of my UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown.  This week we have the second legs of the quarterfinal matchups.  Specifically, this breakdown will cover the two games being played on Tuesday.  Keep reading for all the daily fantasy advice you’ll need to make a winning lineup.

Barcelona are the largest favorites (-265) on this slate at home against Manchester United.  They already hold a 1-0 aggregate lead (with an away goal) so they are set up well to advance as well.  The goal total is currently set at 3.0 for this game so there should be more action than in the first matchup.

Juventus also hold a 1-0 lead on aggregate, and they will also be playing at home where they are favorites (-145).  While I expect Barcelona to come out pressing to put the game away, I don’t see Juventus being as aggressive.  They’ll need to hold Ajax in check on defense, but they should given their defensive dominance.  The goal total for this game is 2.5, and that might be high.

I will address team and player news in my team-by-team breakdown that follows instead of here like I would normally.

UEFA Champions League DFS – Juventus

I emphasized Cristiano Ronaldo ($13,500) as my favorite play of the slate last week, and it certainly paid off.  He was second on the slate in total scoring with a 27.3 FDP game, and I expect more of the same from him on this slate.  Mario Mandzukic ($8,000) has been ruled out with a leg injury for Juventus, and Allegri did not reveal who would start during his press conference on Monday.  Here’s what he said exactly.

If Moise Kean ($7,500) starts, he will be a super popular value play.  Kean has scored in four straight games for Juventus and he has eight goals in his last nine games in all competitions.  With the way Ajax defend, it will be tough to fade this chalk value.  If Paulo Dybala ($8,500) starts instead, I’m less interested.  He has not been playing regularly and only has one Serie A goal since the end of February.  Regardless, if you see Juventus going off, he could be a key part of a stack.

Juventus’s midfield doesn’t usually hold much fantasy appeal to me, and that continues on Tuesday.  They’re great players, don’t get me wrong, but that doesn’t always translate to the fantasy game.  Federico Bernardeschi ($7,500) was disappointing in this first game, and I don’t think I can pay that price for Miralem Pjanic ($8,000) without goal upside.  Neither are bad plays, but I think you can do better unless you want to stack Juventus.  Both Blaise Matuidi ($6,000) and Emre Can ($5,500) do not interest me at all.

Giorgio Chiellini ($6,000) remains out.  Daniele Rugani ($4,000) stepped into his spot in the first game and posted a 9.1 FDP game.  I’ll likely go right back to him on Tuesday, especially since he has a better chance at a clean sheet bonus this time around.  I’m okay playing Alex Sandro ($5,500) on this slate as a mid-tier defender.  His floor is safer than Leonardo Bonucci’s ($5,000).  Joao Cancelo ($6,000) always offers some intriguing upside, so if you are paying up for a defender, Cancelo is a solid option.

Wojciech Szczesny ($5,500) is one of my preferred goalkeepers on this slate.  Juventus rarely concede goals at home and allowing Ajax to score on Tuesday could be trouble.  Juventus will be on their A game defensively so win and clean sheet bonuses are likely.

UEFA Champions League DFS – Ajax

Last week, I made Ajax attackers seem like really good plays, and for the most part they were.  I don’t think that is going to be the case on Tuesday.  Playing on the road at Juventus is one of the most difficult matchups in the world.  While Ajax are having an incredible season offensively, breaking Juventus down is such a hard task.  I would limit my Ajax exposure on this slate to one or two guys.

Dusan Tadic ($10,500) would be one of those guys if he wasn’t so expensive.  The price is justified though, but I can’t trust him to score and hit value in this game.  He did create five chances in the first leg, but he couldn’t put a shot on goal.  I would rather save money and fade him.

Hakim Ziyech ($10,000) got a price bump after his 21.2 FDP game last week.  The story is similar here.  Paying a 5-digit price tag for an attacker against Juventus is something I hate doing.  However, he’s one of the Ajax attackers I would take a chance on in GPPs on Tuesday.  His ability to get meaningful peripherals is one of the best on the slate.  If Ajax can open this game up, Ziyech could thrive, but there is a large risk that Juventus shuts him down.  Lasse Schone ($8,500) is overpriced and David Neres ($7,500) is unlikely to score in two straight games against Juventus.  I’d rather pay down for Frenkie de Jong ($6,500) who essentially went for 3x value in the first game.

Noussair Mazraoui ($5,500) is back from his suspension, and he’s also my favorite Ajax defender.  His price is a little higher than I would want, but I’ll take points where I can get them.  Mattijs de Ligt ($4,500) is also viable and will save you $1,000.

Andre Onana ($4,500) finished with negative points last week, and that could certainly happen again.  I will be avoiding, and I suggest you do too.

UEFA Champions League DFS – Barcelona

The debate of whether to roster Ronaldo, Lionel Messi ($14,000), or both continues on Tuesday.  Last week there were several Ronaldo + Messi lineups that easily cashed in GPPs, and I think that can be done again this week.  Messi has the highest ceiling of any player on this slate.  He’ll take on Manchester United at home who will be pressing for goals and could be vulnerable on defense.  This could be one of those slates where Messi scores so many points and is so high owned that if you don’t have him you don’t cash.

Luis Suarez ($11,000) struggled against United and his price still went up.  Stacking him and Messi or Ousmane Dembele ($8,500), and fading Ronaldo, in a good matchup is an interesting strategy that I could get behind.  My gut is telling me Barcelona hit the 3.0 over/under by themselves on Tuesday.

Barcelona’s midfield is more useless fantasy-wise than the one Juventus puts on the field.  Coutinho ($9,000) might not even play, Ivan Rakitic ($7,500) and Arturo Vidal ($7,000) aren’t fantasy players, and Sergio Busquets ($6,500) and Arthur ($6,000) have extremely low floors.  However, Busquets and Arthur are both cheap enough to provide a way to save salary and spend more on studs which is a good small slate technique.

Jordi Alba ($7,000) had a productive fantasy game last week with 23 points, and I did not expect that.  I think he’s actually a better play this week than he was last week.  While fading top forwards might not be an option, finding value in the midfield to fit Alba into a Barcelona stack is a worthy strategy.  Girard Pique ($6,000) keeps churning out nice fantasy performances with his ability to get peripherals.  Nelson Semedo ($5,000) is a fair value play if you haven’t already maxed out your Barcelona players.

Marc-Andre ter Stegen ($6,000) is a good play on Tuesday.  He was the only GK to keep a clean sheet as Manchester United could not find the net at home.  United will have their hands full trying to score on Barcelona at Camp Nou, and I think ter Stegen gets both bonuses again.

UEFA Champions League DFS – Manchester United

If you’re wondering why I included a picture of Messi here, it’s because I am Team Fade Manchester United on Tuesday and Messi is going to dominate them.  Away at Barcelona is going to be a brutal matchup for United, especially since they couldn’t break Barcelona’s defense on their home ground.  Romelu Lukaku ($10,000), and Marcus Rashford ($9,000) especially, are cheap but I don’t think I can recommend playing them in this matchup.  Neither were able to muster even a shot on goal at home, and that doesn’t bode well for them on Tuesday.

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The story is the same for Paul Pogba ($8,500).  Even though his price continues to drop, he isn’t playing well, and this is just too difficult of a matchup.  In fact, I’m not interested in any United midfielder or forward outside of Scott McTominay ($5,500) and that is purely for his price tag if he allows me to get one of my prioritized studs.

Manchester United defenders are just as uninteresting as their MIDs.  Luke Shaw ($5,500) in the Champions League is a shadow of his Premier League self.  Ashley Young ($5,500) won’t have room to attack.  Victor Lindelof ($5,000) isn’t relevant for fantasy, and neither is Diogo Dalot ($4,500).

Like I said above, my gut is telling me Barcelona nets at least three goals on Tuesday, and because of that, I have zero interest in David de Gea ($5,000).  He’s priced down lower than normal because FanDuel realizes how hard of a matchup this is.  He has virtually no shot at a clean sheet or win, and with every goal allowed -3 points, he could finish in the negatives on Tuesday.

Thanks for reading my UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown.  Hopefully you found it useful and can use the information to make a successful fantasy lineup!  Check out my Twitter (@vdray5) for updates as we move towards lock.