Main DraftKings MLB Picks April 18: Paddack is a mother

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – APRIL 12: Starting pitcher Cole Hamels #35 of the Chicago Cubs delivers the ball against the Los Angeles Angels at Wrigley Field on April 12, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Main DraftKings MLB Picks April 18: Paddack is a mother

The Thursday slate is split again with five games making up the main slate. There isn’t one sure pitcher on this slate, but there are a couple that are interesting. We are likely going to have to take a least one risk tonight. Who should it be? Let’s dive into this a little further.

DraftKings MLB Main Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Chris Paddack ($9,100): Paddack has a 1.29 ERA in his first three major league starts with 16 strikeouts in just 14 innings. The Reds offense is largely struggling, even with the influx of former Dodgers. It stands to reason that they will against Paddack as well. Paddack has the best upside on the slate, and of the entire day. Welcome to your late night hammer!

Felix Hernandez ($7,700): Yep. This is where we’re at tonight. The Angels offense is struggling again. Felix himself gave up only one earned run in his start against the Angels earlier this year, good enough for 17.2 DraftKings points. There’s not a lot of upside with King Felix anymore, especially when his price gets to this point. That said, he should be one of the safer arms on the night slate.

Middle Tier:

Ryan Yarbrough ($7,200): I’m not a huge fan of the price tag here. Yarbrough is one of the better arms on this truncated slate, but he has only gone more than three innings once in three appearances. That was in the first series against Colorado. With Chirinos going several innings last night though, it should be Yarbrough who does the same tonight. The Orioles are decent against lefties, but decent wont be enough. Due to the lack of great options, I’m willing to pay this price.

Zach Davies ($7,000): The Dodgers are hitting just .230 in 74 at bats with three homers and five runs against Davies. We saw Davies dominate the Dodgers in L.A. last week, but Davies is worse at home than on the road. That hasn’t been the case this year, but it’s a small sample size. Davies has a 4.66 ERA in 47 career Miller Park starts.

Bargain Pitchers:

Kyle Freeland ($6,200): Freeland was thrashed by the Braves in his only Coors Field start this year, but I’ll go with his career mark there. Even with that start figured in, Freeland is 16-11 with a 3.30 ERA in 32 career starts at Coors Field. The Philiies are a tough team, but I feel like Freeland’s price has been adjusted to reflect that. The only bad part about Freeland here is that if he gets touched up, he’s getting negatives. Freeland doesn’t strike out enough batters to save himself.

Andrew Cashner ($5,000): Is using a pitcher because no one else will a good enough reason? How about using one so you can afford any stack you want? Cashner comes with many risks, first being that Hess got blasted by the Rays last night. The Rays are only hitting .212 against Cashner with a .058 ISO in 52 at bats with only three runs. The strikeouts wont be there, so if the Rays go off, you’re toast. However, Meadows is the only guy that Cashner hasn’t faced at least four times. This is a decent enough sample size to take a chance on.

My picks: Paddack, Freeland; Yarbrough, Freeland

MIAMI, FL – JULY 13: Scott Kingery #4 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a single during the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on July 13, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Main Notes:

A strong case can be made for stacking against Cashner too. Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe, the two best hitters on this team, have never faced him. Neither has Yandy Diaz. If you’re going after Cashner, use those three.

More from FanSided

Trey Mancini and Renato Nunez are about the only guys I would chase Yarbrough with. The issue is that they may only face Yarbrough once. He wont come in until the bottom of the order, and could depart before it gets back to the top a second time. There are more and better places to chase.

Despite the Brewers being lefty heavy, they took it to Julio Urias last week. Yasmani Grandal and Hernan Perez both homered off of him in that game. Both of them are worth a look again, as is Ryan Braun and Jesus Aguilar.

We know that Davies struggles at home, so despite him handling the Dodgers on L.A. last week, it may pay off to chase him with some lefties. Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson stand out here. Corey Seager looks really good too. You could turn this into a full stack if you expect the home monster to disrupt Davies once again.

The chalk stack will be the Rockies against Zach Eflin, even with the wind blowing in. Charlie Blackmon is 4-7 with two homers, a steal, and four RBI against Eflin. There’s no bad way to chase him here, but I’m going to lean towards the left handed bats of Tapia and Tony Wolters over middling righty bats. Arenado and Story should both be a part of any Rockies stack.

Freeland is strong at home, and the Phillies’ prices are jacked way up for Coors Field. I mean way up. Bryce is $5,800. Cutch $5,200. Jean Segura is the only current Phillie that has homered off of Freeland, and he tips the scales at $4,900. Scott Kingery at $4,000 is literally the only Phillie I will pay for tonight. If I lose, I lose. I can’t justify $5,700 for Rhys and five grand for Realmuto.

I know you guys want to take a run at Felix, but be selective. Mike Trout is a given. Trout is 31-85(.365) with eight homers, three steals, and 20 RBI against Felix. Pujols and Bourjos both have a homer off of Felix, but they are a combined 19-92. Cozart has a homer, but we all know how poorly he’s swinging the bat right now. Aside from Trout, about the only other one I would consider is Justin Bour because he has only faced him six times. Calhoun has been terrible in a large enough sample size to stay away.

Chris Stratton didn’t pitch well against Seattle the first time around, and likely wont here. The Mariners didn’t homer against him. Tim Beckham drove in two. Domingo Santana and Narvaez touched him for runs too. I kind of want to chase him with all lefties. Mallex Smith had two hits the first time around. Jay Bruce is worth a look too.

The only saving grace for Tanner Roark is that he doesn’t allow a lot of home runs. The Padres are mostly home run hitters. Wil Myers and Manny Machado have homered off of him though. Most of the young starts – Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Tatis, and Manuel Margot – haven’t even faced Roark yet. Good luck Tanner. You’re going to need it.

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