MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday, April 18 – Let the Kids Play!

Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Wednesday’s MLB DFS split slate was headlined by what was supposed to be a weak pitching main slate, however as we have seen time and time again this season, the pitching rarely performs like we expect it to. For a “weak” pitching slate, we had 9 arms go for 20+ fantasy points with Carlos Carrasco (40) and Cole Hamels (30) as the top raw point performers on a night where the arms dominated the leaderboard.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Early Slate Breakdown:

Welcome to some Thursday MLB DFS action as we get another split slate with four games on the Early Slate on FantasyDraft which kicks off at 12:10PM EST with the Braves/Diamondbacks and includes the three 1PM EST games including one in Detroit where we have some potential weather/rain risk.

Outside of how you handle the weather in the Detroit/Chicago, the biggest decision you have is what you want to do with Patrick Corbin ($19.6K), the obvious ace on the slate as a massive -200+ home favorite against the Giants. Corbin is coming off an 11K performance against Pittsburgh where he leaned on his slider nearly 40% of the time, generating his highest K output as a National and it is no surprise that Corbin is the biggest favorite on the slate while San Francisco has the lowest IRT of any team on this four gamer.

In cash games, using Corbin makes all the sense in the world as your safe SP1 choice but I think when you consider the ownership on such a small slate, there are reasons to fade here and viable pivots we can explore.

Mike Soroka ($17.7K) is the next most expensive arm on the slate, getting his first start of 2019 after injuries derailed his 2018 season and delayed his 2019 debut. Soroka is a top pitching prospect in Atlanta’s system who made 5 starts in 2018, including two 20+ fantasy point outings against the Mets before his season was cut short with injury.

In two minor league starts this season, Soroka has looked every bit the part of a top prospect and foundation piece of the Braves rotation, throwing 5 no hit innings with 7 K’s in his first start back on April 6, before ramping up to 70 pitches in his next start.

Soroka has an elite pitch in his sinker, which he threw about 40% of the time at the Major League level last year which induced a high ground ball rate of 50% with only a 21% HC rate and minimal .103 ISO mark. After watching Kevin Gausman strike out 10 in this spot last night with 29 fantasy points, Soroka has a match-up that I think we can exploit and his pitch profile gives you some added safety due to his high ground ball rate/ low HC rate which should help with run suppression.

I had been hesitant to roll out Michael Pineda ($15.9K) until I saw the pitch counts rise, but after hitting 96 pitches in his last start and seeing his price stay this low in a match-up against Toronto, my guess is Pineda becomes a popular play here today and for good reason.

Pineda is sporting a a 26% K rate and 12.5% swinging strike rate so far and will take the mound at home today as a massive -185 favorite against a Blue Jays team with a sub 4 IRT, second lowest behind only the Giants. Pineda is a heavy slider arm, throwing it 33% of the time and generating a 31% whiff rate on that pitch and if you have been playing MLB DFS for any length of time you have likely heard about “Sliders Versus Toronto” which is something the guys on the RotoGrindders Morning Grind have talked about for years.

Up and down this line-up, you have guys with 30% plus whiff rates against the slider and with temperatures in the 40’s today in Minnesota, this is likely one of the best pure game environments to attack with arms.

In cash games, I think a Corbin/Pineda duo is the way to attack this slate but in GPP’s, I think you can drop down to Soroka and look to gain some leverage on the field, but more on that in a moment.

MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:

One of the reasons I am looking to pivot down from Corbin at SP1 is that I want the salary to be able to afford some big bats – specifically in Atlanta and Washington where we have 70+ degree temperatures in both stadiums with opposing pitchers like Luke Weaver and Drew Pomeranz on the mound.

The Nationals will take on Pomeranz at home with the wind blowing straight out at 7 MPH and despite his early season success (2 ER in each of his first three starts), this is still a pitcher giving up a ton of hard contact, .200+ ISO marks to RHB with the ability to generate much swing and muss stuff. Pomeranz throws his curveball well over 40% to RHB and well, if he tries that with Anthony Rendon ($10.1K) he could end up with some crooked numbers real quick as Rendon has simply hammered that pitch type, with a .267 ISO and 94 MPH EV.

Rendon has a .307 ISO mark against LHP since 2018 and while the sticker shock as the highest priced bat on the slate may keep some away, this looks like a spot where the match-up screams to play him. Juan Soto ($9K) gets the L/L match-up here but with a .200+ ISO mark against LHP since 2018, I think he makes for an elite mini-stack option alongside Rendon and you can expand that to a cheaper Ryan Zimmermann ($7.7K) who has historically mashed LHP despite a slow start so far in 2019.

The Braves will get a date with RHP Luke Weaver, who has given up just shy of 50% HC this season and will have to navigate a left-handed power barrage with guys like Ozzie Albies, Freedie Freeman and Nick Markakis, with Ronald Acuna Jr. sandwiched in between. If you are going with Soroka as your SP1, I love the idea of correlating with a Braves stack, in the hope that Atlanta’s offense can get out to an early lead and Soroka can pitch to contact, relying on his heavy GB approach to get quick outs and pitch deep into the game.

Now, simply fading Corbin is not going to be enough to get you the salary to pay up for BOTH of Washington and Atlanta here so you need to find value and this is where the Corbin fade takes on a leverage component as you look to grab a few cheap Giants bats.

There is not a single bat above $7.5K in the Giants projected line-up and in fact the 4-5-6 mini stack of Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria and Yangervis Solarte will cost you $5.5-$5.6K per player, essentially a min-priced stack in the heart of the order. Now, do I “want” to pick on Corbin – not necessarily, but it is worth noting that in 2019 he has given up a .261 ISO and 46% HC rate to RHB and with the wind blowing out with warm temperatures, there is potential to use these punt bats to gain leverage on Corbin chalk.

Corbin relies on his slider/sinker combination to RHB and interestingly enough, Longoria has a 43% HC rate against the slider and has a massive .350 ISO mark against the splitter since 2016. At these prices, if you can get offensive production and hope the Giants can do what they did to Strasburg (4 ER and only 17.9 FPTS), you would gain massive leverage on the field if your pivots can out produce what I expect will be the chalk arm here early.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:

If you want lots of offense, terrible pitching and really difficult roster choices – well my friends, you have come to the right slate as this five game Main Slate is a an old-fashioned slobberknocker. (I have always wanted to use that term and now I have done it.)

We have a game in Coors Field with an 11 game total, with the Dodgers/Brewers in Miller Park and a 9.5 game total, all not to be outdone by the Angels/Mariners with a 9.5 run total of their own. So let’s just say this is likely a slate with some offense, the question will become, which offense and at what price point are you shopping?

But first, the pitching – oh no, the pitching. So Chris Paddack ($17.5K) is likely the “best” arm on the slate at home against the Reds but despite his high pedigree, are you willing to pay up for an arm that has yet to throw over 90 pitches?

I cannot believe I am going to say this, but I would actually rather Tanner Roark ($14.4K) on the other side of this game. Roark throughout his career has had a higher K rate (21% to 17%) against RHB, limiting them to 0.79 HR/9 with a 50% GB rate and only a 23% HC rate and today will face a Padres line-up that is likely to only have one lefty in it (Eric Hosmer). So Roark gets the favorable splits and a massive ballpark boost heading to San Diego and with a 27% K rate and 0.50 ISo to RHB so far in 2019, this may be the perfect match-up on an awful pitching slate to utilize him.

Now back to Paddack, I do think there is merit on this slate to actually taking both arms in this game, likely the spot you want to take bats from the least and simply hope this game stays true to its low 7.5 total. Paddack has a 30% K rate on the young season so there is upside and even some safety considering the ballpark.

It is not going to be a pretty slate for pitching. You want Andrew Cashner against the Rays? You want to roll the dice that you land on the right Rays long man today? Pitchers in Coors or Miller Park interest you? How about Felix Hernandez in 2019? These are our options people. It is quite the slobberknocker.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:

If you opt to go the Paddack/Roark route, you will still have $8.5K per hitter for the rest of your line-up and while you may not be able to stack all the $10K hitters in Coors, I think there is plenty of offense you can take at varying price points to fill in across the other games here tonight.

Let’s start in Coors Field, with Kyle Freeland and Zach Eflin on the mound where mostly everyone will be looking to cram in every bat they can. While I do not want to necessarily use Freeland, I also respect his ability so my exposure to the Phillies will likely be underweight with the exception of Scott Kingery ($7.2K) who is simply far too cheap for a spot at the top of the order in Coors Field.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Freeland has a .9 HR/9 rate at home in his career and even when he gave up 7 ER to the Braves his first home start in 2019, that was with only 1 HR and a 53% GB rate. He struggled with command in that start, walking 4, so it was really more of a perfect storm of walks/singles and with the HR hunting seeming like a losing battle, I would rather fade the Phillies bats and load up on the Rockies against Zach Eflin.

The last season plus, Eflin has given up a .200+ ISO mark to LHB and so far in 2019 is giving up .200+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate with elevated fly ball rates including a total butt-whooping in Miami where he gave up 10 hits, 6 ER and 3 HR’s. Here is a fun fact – Coors Field is tougher to pitch in than Marlins Park – #Analysis.

Charlie Blackmon looks like the premier bat here and the fact he is under $9K is an added bonus but keep an eye on the status of David Dahl who reports suggest will be activated for this start here tonight assuming his injury tests go well this morning. Eflin leans heavily on his slider to RHB, a pitch that both Nolan Arenado and especially Trevor Story profile well against with Story having a .246 ISO against that pitch type.

This is no shock, the Rockies are a team you can stack up to 6 batters on FantasyDraft and frankly, I would be fine employing an all in approach here tonight and hope Eflin’s struggles last game in Miami carry over to tonight.

From a one-off perspective there are two bats I wanted to point out with one being the daily reminder to play Chris Davis ($5.1K) if he is back in the line-up after dealing with illness. On this slate especially, using him as your punt one-off gives you the financial flexibility to get Paddack and a Coors stack.

The Rays were the offense to have last night, and with Andrew Cashner on the mound, well they may be the offense to have again. Cashner relies mostly on his sinker to LHB and this is a pitch that Ji-Man Choi ($7.2K) crushes – to the tune of a .396 ISO. 44% HC rate and 330+ average distance in 44 instances.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!