Fansided

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: April 19, 2019

By Matt McGarvey

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - APRIL 04: General view of the National Anthem prior to a game between the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers during Opening Day at Comerica Park on April 04, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - APRIL 04: General view of the National Anthem prior to a game between the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers during Opening Day at Comerica Park on April 04, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: April 19th

Tonight’s Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks slate features 14 games with, Houston (5.8), Colorado (5.4), Minnesota (5.3), and New York (5.2) , holding the best projected team totals. Without many high-priced pitchers in play, finding the best match-ups will play more of a factor than finding value will.
We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, and line movement.

MLB DFS Standouts Picks: Batted Ball Stats

Justin Turner – DK $4300, FD $3200

Although Turner has struggled to put up fantasy points through the beginning of April, there are a few favorable indicators that positive regression could be coming his way. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 11 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 13%, and his exit velocity is up 3 MPH, over his yearly averages. Turner is only $3200 on FanDuel, which is a considerable drop off from where he was priced earlier in the month.

Batter Splits

Yulieski Gurriel – DK $4200, FD $3000

Houston has one of the highest projected team totals on the slate, and if Gurriel is batting fifth, he should be considered. Gurriel will have a favorable matchup, as he’ll face the left, Drew Smyly. Gurriel is much better against left handed pitching, with a .383 wOBA split (.087 better than when facing a righty) and a .189 ISO split (.077 better than when facing a righty).

Nick Castellanos – DK $3900, FD $2700

Nick Castellanos is another righty in an advantageous matchup tonight. Castellanos will face the lefty Carlos Rodon, in a game in which balls hit in the air should carry a bit further than usual (see below). Castellanos is much better against left handed pitching, with a .428 wOBA split (.088 better than when facing a righty) and a .189 ISO split. The game total isn’t all that appealing, which could lead to decreased ownership on batters from this game.

Line Movement

The White Sox will be on the road tonight as they head to Detroit to take on the Tigers, in a game in which Detroit sits as a slight, -106, favorite. Although the line hasn’t moved much, the game total is a different story. This total briefly opened at 7.5 runs, but has since been bet up to 8.5 runs. One major factor in this move is the weather.

As of this afternoon, the forecast is calling for 19 MPH winds blowing out to right center field. This piece of information is even more interesting when combined with the fly ball rates of both starting pitchers. Zimmerman and Rodon both have a flyball percentage of 42% over the last 12 months. This ranks them tied for the 6th highest flyball rate on the slate, out of the 28 starting pitchers.

Next. MLB DFS Picks and Pivots - April 19. dark

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis each and every day!