DraftKings MLB Picks April 19: Ride the young arms

DraftKings MLB Picks April 19: Ride the young arms

We have a 14 game monster for our DraftKings MLB tournaments tonight. This is the largest slate of the season so far with only the matinee at Wrigley lopped off of this one. There are some really intriguing matchups here, so let’s jump right in!

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This 14 game monster is likely going to shrink by at least one game. Rain is likely until after midnight in Pittsburgh, so I doubt they get that game in. If they do, I’m all over Jordan Lyles for the price against the Giants. MadBum has appeal too, but if only using one, I’ll lean towards Lyles and take a shot at MadBum with Starling Marte or Jung Ho Kang.

Rain is possible in New York, which is unfortunate since the wind is blowing out to left at 18 mph. All that right handed Yankee power could be washed out, but if they wait long enough, I think they get that game in.

It’s the same way in Detroit. There is a massive 22 mph wind out to right field, but this game is likely delayed. Like New York though, I think it plays if they wait long enough, like starting at 9pm central or so.

Cleveland has a 60% or better rain chance until after midnight, so I don’t think that game gets played. Even if it does, there are good pitchers on both sides and the wind is blowing in from center at 12 mph. Toussaint gets a raw deal getting pushed back to Cleveland. Corey Kluber is worth a look if this game plays. He has struck out 29 Braves in 82 at bats with only two homers and six runs. Josh Donaldson has hit Kluber hard though. He is 7-19(368) with a homer and five RBI.

The rain stays away in Arlington tonight, and the wind switched to 12 mph out to right. That wind will die down for the second half of the game though. It will be chilly with a 20mph crosswind in Milwaukee, so I kind of think they close the roof there and in Miami.

The last bit of wind comes in St Louis with an 18 mph wind blowing in from left.

Last night was dominated by the pitching. I took a gamble on Freeland in two lines and both placed thanks to big nights from Freeland and Ryan McMahon.

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.

For you first time players, if you would like a free $10 ticket on DraftKings, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more!

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Jose Berrios ($10,800): Berrios is the highest priced player on the slate, and you really can’t say he hasn’t earned it. Berrios has four straight quality starts and a 2.31 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 27.1 innings. Only three Baltimore players have ever faced Berrios. They are a combined 4-19. No matter how you dissect this, Berrios is the elite play on a pretty good slate. There’s no one that stands out above him here.

Ross Stripling ($8,800): I’m normally in no hurry to pay up for Stripling, especially in a hitter’s park, but his numbers against the Brewers are too good to ignore. The Brewers are just 7-45(.156) against Stripling with a .044 ISO and just one run to go with ten strikeouts. Those are elite numbers at a price that is below the elite tier. The struggling Travis Shaw is the only Brewer with any success against Stripling, and I don’t see him getting on track here.

Middle Tier:

Caleb Smith ($8,200): There is risk involved here since the Nationals have actually done pretty well against lefties this year. Still, they didn’t blast Pomeranz yesterday, so there is upside here. Smith has racked up 21 strikeouts in 17 innings this year while posting a 2.65 ERA. He needs to limit the walks to truly be effective, but Smith has at least six strikeouts in all three games. He strikes out enough batters to avoid a truly bad game. We don’t always have that luxury at this price.

Marco Gonzales ($8,000): Gonzales has an ERA that is more than a run lower at home in his career, so if you want to use him, it almost needs to be in Seattle. On top of that, the Angels have been dominated by lefties this year. They are hitting just .162 in 173 at bats against southpaws with only four homers and 13 RBI. The Angels are hitting a solid .252 against Gonzales in 115 at bats, but they have just two homers and eight runs. Gonzales isn’t going to rack up strikeouts, but neither did Mike Minor and he still dropped 40 on the Angels.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,800): It’s a small sample size, but Rodriguez has totally dominated the Rays so far. They are just 6-36(.167) with a staggering 16 strikeouts. Sure, Meadows and Lowe haven’t faced him yet, but Rodriguez has the platoon advantage there. Cashner held his own against this team last night. I think that Rodriguez can do the same.

Bargain Pitchers:

Marcus Stroman ($7,500): Last year was kind of a lost season for Stroman due to injury. I don’t think he was truly healthy all year. This year Stroman has had a run of bad luck. He has turned in a 1.99 ERA over four starts, but is 0-3. The WHIP is still a little on the high side, but the strikeout upside is back. Stroman has 23 strikeouts in 22.2 innings. He has also not allowed a homer this year. Stroman is in a spacious park against a decent offense, but I’ll trust this year’s numbers. Stroman looks like a bargain here.

Alex Cobb ($6,000): We are going to need value somewhere, and this could be a solid place to look. Cobb picked up a respectable 13.2 DraftKings points against the Yankees in his only start this year. Cobb doesn’t strike out a lot of batters though, so there is risk using him. He did give up two homers to the Yankees in that game, and he has given up four to the Twins in 91 at bats. They are still only hitting .242 off of him with 17 strikeouts. Cobb is a solid low tier play.

My picks: Glasnow, Fried; Fried, Margevicius

DraftKings MLB stack options

New York Yankees vs. Jake Junis:

Opponents are hitting .304 against Junis in his four starts this year and have tuned him up for a 6.14 ERA. The Yankees are hitting .308 against Junis in two games so far. Oh, and the wind is blowing out to right if this game plays. Aaron Judge has already homered against Junis. I would expect a repeat performance. Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Austin Romine are decent consolation prizes with Sanchez, Andujar, and Stanton still out. Brett Gardner leading off looks good as well.

Chicago White Sox vs. Jordan Zimmerman:

That’s more what we’re used to from Zimmerman. He has allowed ten runs (nine earned) over the last two starts while lasting a combined 7.1 innings. The White Sox have also hit Zimmerman hard. They are hitting .295 with six homers and 22 runs in only 112 at bats. Yonder Alonso is a must play tonight. He is 7-18(.389) with four homers and seven RBI off of Zimmerman. Jose Abreu is 10-23(.435) with two homers and eight RBI. This is where the UTIL slot on FanDuel comes in handy. Yolmer Sanchez is 3-8 with three RBI and is a good way to save money. Leury Garcia and Tim Anderson look good too.

Houston Astros vs. Drew Smyly:

One of the most potent offenses around taking on a pitcher with a 7.15 ERA in three starts who has fly ball tendencies with the wind blowing out. Forget Coors! Here’s the stack you want! The current Astros are hitting .310 against Smyly in 58 at bats with three homers and nine runs. George Springer has two of those homers. Jake Marisnick has the other. Michael Brantley is 5-13 against him with four walks. Jose Altuve, Correa, and Bregman have hit Smyly well as well despite the absence of counting stats.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jhoulys Chacin:

Some of these stats were still when Chacin called Coors home, but not most. The current Dodgers are hitting .330 in 100 at bats with seven homers and a whopping 25 runs. Joc Pederson is only 4-15, but three of those hits are homers and he has seven RBI. Cody Bellinger is 5-12 with two homers and five RBI against Chacin. Chris Taylor and A.J. Pollock have the other homers. Justin Turner is 6-19 with four RBI. There is a lot to like about the Dodgers here.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Jason Vargas:

You are basically playing Cardinals against the Mets bullpen. Vargas only lasted more than one inning once, and that was in his first start against Miami. Over the last two starts, Vargas has given up eight runs in just 1.1 innings combined! The Mess can’t possibly leave Vargas in the rotation, right? This is the MLB equivalent of NBA tanking. The Cardinals are hitting .355 in 62 at bats with two homers and eight runs. Goldy and Yadier Molina have the homers and six of the RBI. Dexter Fowler and DeJong are both hitting well over .300. I may even chase this with a cheaper righty like Jose Martinez. I wouldn’t load up on righties though because the Mets will likely follow Vargas with a righty. A good mix is ideal if you’re stacking this.

Colorado Rockies vs. Vince Velasquez:

Velasquez has a 6.14 ERA in three career Coors Field starts. Even though he hasn’t done that poorly against current Rockies, this park obviously gives him problems. David Dahl and Trevor Story have the homers so far. Charlie Blackmon is 5-15 with a bunch of counting stats, but no homers. Ryan McMahon and Raimel Tapia are worth a look here as cheaper pieces of the stack.

San Diego Padres vs. Anthony DeSclafani:

This is an all or nothing stack. DeSclafani has a 7.43 ERA in three starts this year. He has allowed four homers in those three starts, and this team has as much raw power as anyone. The trouble is that most of it is from the right side. The Padres are hitting a robust .417 against DeScalfani in 36 at bats, but only have one homer. Hunter Renfroe hit that one. I really like Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Hosmer, and Franmil Reyes here as well. Don’t forget about Manny Machado. He is lurking at only $4,400.

DraftKings MLB daily notes:

I don’t know that I trust CC Sabathia with the wind blowing out, otherwise he would be a decent play. Maybe. The Royals have a lot of righties. Whit Merrifield is 5-11 with three runs and three steals. Lefty Lucas Duda has the only Royals homer against CC, but Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier are tempting here.

I know the Tigers aren’t very good, but they have hit Carlos Rodon well so far. All those right handed bats, I guess. Miggy has the only homer against Rodon, but Castellanos is 3-5 with a pair of RBI. Niko Goodrum is worth a shot here if you want to chase Rodon.

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Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, C.J. Cron, and Jonathan Schoop have all homered against Alex Cobb before. I have no issue taking a shot or two here, but keep in mind that only Cruz is the only one of the four hitting .250 or better (.286) against Cobb.

Anibal Sanchez has not been good against the Marlins, but…it’s the Marlins. I can’t stack, but I can sure as hell avoid the trap that is Anibal Sanchez at $8,100. There are far better pitchers under that price. Granderson, Neil Walker, and Martin Prado have the Marlin homers against Sanchez, and they are all $3,600 or less.

If you are looking for a cheap catcher, Yan Gomes has homered off of Caleb Smith before. Anthony Rendon also has two homers already this year against left handed pitchers.

The only Rays player that I’m considering against Rodriguez is Tommy Pham. Pham is 2-5 against Rodriguez with one of the two RBI.

It’s tempting to grab a few Brewers lefties and go after Stripling, but I don’t recommend it. Their prices are still very high. Shaw at a discount is the only one I would consider, and I still don’t like it.

The Rays should have just pitched Yarbrough last night instead of Jalen Beeks. Beeks was not sharp against the Orioles. Now they put Yarbrough against the Red Sox instead (probably). If it is Yarbrough, I want no part of him, but I will take some shares of Xander Bogaerts, Mookie, and J.D. Martinez.

I’m hedging my bets with Matt Strahm, meaning I’m staying off of him. The Reds have some right handed power, even if it has been mostly dormant so far this year. Puig and Matt Kemp could get into one at any minute. The Reds are cheap with the platoon advantage almost across the board if you need some lineup fillers.

Mike Trout is the only Angel I have any interest in. He has two of the four Angels homers against lefties this year, and he is 9-20 with a homer and two RBI against Gonzales.

Verlander didn’t fare well in Arlington a couple of weeks ago, so I’m fading him tonight. It’s risky, but with other great options on the slate, I don’t feel the need to reach for him. I will go after him with a couple of Rangers though. Asdrubal Cabrera is 18-68(.265) with two homers and ten RBI against Verlander. Shin-Soo Choo is only hitting .207 in 82 at bats, but he has three homers. Elvis Andrus is 18-50(.360) with eight runs, two RBI, and a steal.

Felix Pena has not be so bad that I would stack against him, but some Seattle pieces do intrigue me. Omar Narvaez and Jay Bruce are very affordable left handed bats. Tim Beckham is a decent value play, but I don’t know that I really want anything beyond that.

The A’s have hit Marcus Stroman pretty hard, and at the front of that is Khris Davis. Davis is 3-6 with three walks, a homer, and three RBI. Marcus Semien has hit him well too.

On one hand, Adam Wainwright is guaranteed a win. On the other, he hasn’t been that good this year and the Mets have hit him hard in a small sample size. Keon Broxton is 7-9 with two homers off of Wainwright already. He’s the gotta have Met tonight. Everyone else in interchangeable, but I want plenty of exposure to this even if I don’t go with a full blown stack.

The Blue Jays are very cheap, and they are going against Aaron Brooks, he of the 4.24 ERA. Brooks was strong in his first home start this year, but he still holds a 4.75 career ERA in the Coliseum. I don’t know that I would stack Jays here, but Justin Smoak, Lourdes Gurriel, or Teoscar Hernandez are reasonably priced lineup fillers.

German Marquez has been far worse at home in his career. His first home start of 2019 was no different. Marquez did finish last year strong at home though, so maybe he recaptures that magic. Maybe not. For that reason, I’m not using Marquez or stacking against him. The current Phillies are hitting .340 in 50 at bats, but only have two homers and five runs with 21 strikeouts. You don’t want to get caught on the wrong side of this. Hoskins and Nick Williams have the homers. I suppose you could chase Harper, but he is only 1-5 against Marquez so far.

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