English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Saturday 4/20/19
By Vince Dray
We are now in the final month of the English Premier League season, but there is still plenty at stake for several teams. We have a small five game slate on Saturday, and this English Premier League DFS Breakdown will give you all the information you need to make a winning lineup on Saturday.
It’s becoming a common theme that our Saturday main slates do not include many big clubs, and that is continuing Saturday. The biggest favorite is Bournemouth (-150) at home over last place Fulham. This will be a popular place for DFS players, especially with a slate-high 3.0 goal total.
Wolverhampton (-130) follow as the next largest favorite over a Brighton squad that are not yet free of relegation. The goal total for this game is only 2.0, and I think that’s pretty spot on. Watford (-115) are also decent favorites over Huddersfield who has already been relegated. The goal total in this game is 2.5.
The last two games (Leicester @ West Ham, and Southampton @ Newcastle) both have very marginal Vegas lines. I think there should be a solid amount of interest in the Leicester @ West Ham game from a DFS perspective (goal total 2.5), but Southampton @ Newcastle could be a late game snooze fest (goal total 2.0).
As far as injury news this week, Watford expects to have both Gerard Deulofeu and Roberto Pereyra available. Both have good matchups, but if one or both are unable to play, their fill-ins (likely Andre Gray) would also benefit from that good matchup.
One of my favorite midfield value pieces lately, Manuel Lanzini, has already been ruled out for Saturday. Another WHU midfielder, Samir Nasri, is also unavailable Saturday. Michail Antonio will likely get a start but will be hard to trust for fantasy purposes.
Jose Holebas is out Saturday for Watford, and Adam Masina is expected to jump into his starting spot. For just above minimum price, Masina is worth a look.
That’s it as far as a slate overview goes, so let’s get to the plays!
English Premier League DFS Target Forwards
Raul Jimenez (Brighton @ Wolverhampton, $11,500) – I realize that this game has the lowest goal total on the slate, but I still expect Wolverhampton to score at least one goal if not more. Jimenez has the best odds to be an anytime goal scorer in this game. He has 12 goals and 7 assists this season, and he’s getting 2.9 shots per game. Brighton’s away defense has been poor this year, allowing an average of 1.88 goals per game. Jimenez is a solid starting point for your lineups in all formats. Diogo Jota ($9,500) has 7 goals and 4 assists himself this season and will be a decent GPP pick on Saturday but much riskier that Jimenez.
Callum Wilson (Fulham @ Bournemouth, $11,000) – Wilson could very well be the most popular play on the whole slate. If you’ve followed my English Premier League DFS Breakdowns this season, you already know about Fulham’s atrocious defense. They’re conceding over 2.5 goals per game away from home this year. Bournemouth just hung 5 goals on Brighton last week, and it could definitely happen again. Wilson had a goal and 2 assists in that game, and I foresee another similar performance this week. If you want to avoid the chalk, Josh King ($8,500) is crazy cheap for this matchup. He hasn’t scored or assisted in three games, but he does have 11 goals on the year, and he can definitely add to that total on Saturday. Getting Bournemouth exposure in cash games will be key and playing both Wilson and King in hopes of another rout is an intriguing GPP strategy.
Value Forwards
Andre Gray (Watford @ Huddersfield, $8,000) – I don’t have much on Gray, and I already wrote about my favorite value forward above (Josh King). Gray has a solid matchup on Saturday against a Huddersfield team that has already been relegated and that has been poor defensively all season. Gray steps into the starting lineup due to Troy Deeney’s suspension, and believe it or not, he actually has the best odds to be an anytime goal scorer in this game. Huddersfield are at home, but they’ve given up 3rd most goals at home this year. Despite this good spot, I don’t expect Gray to be that high owned. He and King are some of the best value at the forward positions we’ve had in a while.
English Premier League DFS Target Midfielders
Ryan Fraser (Fulham @ Bournemouth, $8,500) – I wrote Fraser up last week, but I did not have him in my lineup, and it came back to bite me. Fraser went off for a goal and 2 assists along with 4 chances created. Fraser looks to be back to his early-season form recently, which is great for Bournemouth and for DFS players. Fraser is still very affordable on FanDuel. Like I mentioned above, Bournemouth scored 5 goals last week and they actually have a better matchup this week. Getting Bournemouth exposure is recommended on Saturday. For that reason, David Brooks ($9,000) and Dan Gosling ($6,500) are also viable, but I would reserve them for GPPs and play Fraser in cash games.
Youri Tielemans (Leicester @ West Ham, $8,500) – Most of you are probably tired of me writing up James Maddison ($9,500). While he is a good play on this slate, I’m going to talk about Tielemans instead. Tielemans jumped into Leicester’s regular rotation in February, and he’s been good even since. His last 5 games in particular have been good, with a 20.5 FDP per game average which includes two goals and an assist. Tielemans has as much goal/assist upside in this game as Maddison does, and he’ll save you $1,000. Maddison has the safer floor with his ability to create chances, but Tielemans is a top pivot to get a lower owned player in a good matchup.
Joao Moutinho (Brighton @ Wolverhampton, $8,500) – Moutinho has played in every single EPL game for Wolverhampton this year. His per game average of 15, makes it seem like he’s a little over priced on Saturday. However, Brighton got blasted last week for five goals against Bournemouth. While Wolverhampton isn’t quite as good of an attacking team, stacking Wolverhampton Saturday in hopes of a 3 or 4 goal performance is a workable GPP strategy. A Wolverhampton stack likely includes Moutinho. He has 7 games this year where he created 3+ chances, and that should be 8 after Saturday. If Moutinho can provide an assist on Saturday, he should be in a great spot to give you 3x value at low ownership.
Value Midfielders
Ryan Babel (Fulham @ Bournemouth, $7,500) – Don’t look now, but Babel has scored in 3 straight games and he’s still under $8k. He also has 7 chances created in those 3 games. Even at home, Bournemouth have not been great defensively. This game has the highest goal total on the slate, and it could become a very open game which should do Babel well. There is a lack of midfield value on Saturday, but Babel is one place to look for those who need to save salary.
Matt Ritchie (Southampton @ Newcastle, $7,000) – Perhaps a safer value midfielder on Saturday is Matt Ritchie. While Babel’s value mostly relies on whether or not he can find the back of the net again, Ritchie can get you 3x value from all of his peripherals. He has at least one chance created in 8 straight games. Given Southampton’s poor defense this year, I expect that streak to continue. This game has the lowest goal total on the slate (2.0), but neither team are clear of relegation mathematically. While there might not be a ton of goals, there will still be action in this game. Ritchie is my favorite top tier value midfielder on the slate.
English Premier League DFS Target Defenders
Wily Boly (Brighton @ Wolverhampton, $6,000) – Wily Boly is averaging 23.2 FDP in his last 5 games, which is just shy of 4x value. In this matchup, Boly has as much upside as any defender price above him and just as good of a floor. His ability to rack up a lot of defensive peripherals is huge, and he provides some goal upside as well. He’s a good top defender if you have the money. He should be low owned as well.
Fabian Schar (Southampton @ Newcastle, $7,000) – Schar has been the highest scoring defender on FanDuel this season. He has some 4x upside without relying on goals. He was out for a while with a concussion, but he’s averaging 20 FDP in the two games since his return. Schar will cost you, but he’s in a good spot for another 3x game.
Maya Yoshida (Southampton @ Newcastle, $5,500) – When healthy, Yoshida is one of the most consistent fantasy defenders on FanDuel. Over his last 6 games since returning, Yoshida is averaging 18.3 FDP which is over 3x value at his current price (and he spent 3 of those games at minimum price). Yoshida does a little bit of everything on defense which creates a consistent floor. He’s my favorite mid-tier defender.
Value Defenders
Maxime Le Marchand (Fulham @ Bournemouth, $5,000) – If you want a very low owned player who can get you 3x value, Le Marchand is a good pick. Nine of his 22 appearances this season have resulted in 3x value at his current price. A reminder that this game has the highest goal total, so Vegas thinks there will be no shortage of action. Le Marchand has 2 straight 3x games, and he’ll look to continue that streak against Bournemouth on Saturday. His upside is somewhat limited, but he does have 3 20+ FDP games this year, so 4x value is not out of the question.
Jannik Vestergaard (Southampton @ Newcastle, $5,000) – I might need 3 hands to count the number of times I’ve written up Vestergaard, but if FanDuel is going to keep him this cheap, why wouldn’t I? He’s averaging 19.98 FDP over his last 5 games (which is 4x!). Also, 11 of his 16 games since the beginning of December have been good for 3x value at his current price. I’ve made many successful lineups with him, and I won’t hesitate to use him again.
Terence Kongolo (Watford @ Huddersfield, $4,500) – Speaking of players who regularly eclipse 3x value, Kongolo has done so in 5 of his last 6 EPL games. If you can’t afford Vestergaard for another $500, Kongolo is a good replacement.
Steve Cook (Fulham @ Bournemouth, $4,000) – This slate is littered with good defender punts. Cook was out injured for about 2 months, and FanDuel has not yet raised his price. He returned last week and played nearly a full game (87 minutes) while scoring 15.4 FDP. Looking at his season as a whole, Cook has hit 3x value at his current minimum price 22/27 times! That’s some great consistency for a guy priced at the minimum.
English Premier League DFS Goalkeepers
Ben Foster (Watford @ Huddersfield, $6,000) – This one is a little risky with Watford on the road and with Foster priced up. However, Huddersfield have scored the least goals in the EPL this season (only 19 in 34 games). Foster has good odds at a win bonus and should make some saves. If he can’t keep a clean sheet it could be hard for him to hit value, but again, he’s facing Huddersfield.
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Rui Patricio (Brighton @ Wolverhampton, $5,500) – Wolverhampton have been a tough defensive team on their home turf this season, and Brighton have scored less than one goal per game average on the road. I’m slightly concerned with using Patricio because Brighton are desperate for points so they will be pressing for goals. Saves should not a concern for Patricio, but the bonuses aren’t a sure thing.
Artur Buruc (Fulham @ Bournemouth, $4,500) – Buruc is the cheapest starting GK on the slate and he also has the best odds according to Vegas at a win bonus. Fulham only have 11 away goals all year, but Bournemouth’s defense isn’t always trustworthy. I still think Buruc has a good chance at both bonuses, and with a few saves, he could have a big fantasy day.
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Thanks for reading my English Premier League DFS Breakdown. I’ll be available on Twitter (@vdray5) for any questions or last minute advice.