MLB DFS Pitching: Friday, April 19
Welcome back to the Friday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.
Sorry, I was MIA there for a few days, but I was able to make my WiseTake article free to the public on one of those days and I hope that helped you out. I’m back today for this massive 14-game slate!
My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.
Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for the slate here, usually accompanied by Vegas odds. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits.
I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second, Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis.
Jakob Junis vs.CC Sabathia (-180)
Jose Berrios (-175) vs. Alex Cobb
Madison Bumgarner vs. Jordan Lyles (-110)
Touki Toussaint vs. Corey Kluber (-150)
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Wilmer Font
Carlos Rodon vs. Jordan Zimmermann (-105)
Anibal Sanchez (-110) vs. Caleb Smith
Justin Verlander (-190) vs. Drew Smyly
Ross Stripling (-110) vs. Jhoulys Chacin
Jason Vargas vs. Adam Wainwright (-140)
Vince Velasquez vs. German Marquez (-120)
Marco Gonzales vs. Felix Pena (-112)
Marcus Stroman vs. Aaron Brooks (-128)
Anthony DeSclafani vs.Matt Strahm (-130)
MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces
Jose Berrios (10.4k FD, 10.8k DK) @ Baltimore
I’ll just start by saying that I am avoiding the top priced pitcher (Justin Verlander) in Texas tonight. He makes for a fine GPP play, but those Texas bats and that stadium, coupled with his lackluster performance in their first meeting gives me enough reason to move on to a safer ace here in Berrios.
Some might worry that JB has some poor road splits, but I am throwing that stat out the window today as I think that’s something we will see disappear as he becomes a more experienced pitcher. He went in Philadelphia and pitched well a few weeks ago and I see no reason why he can’t go in Baltimore and dominate this Orioles lineup.
Berrios has been great against righties this year and last, holding them to a .279 wOBA and will face mainly right-handed bats in this Orioles lineup. The O’s have a surprisingly low K-rate this year, but their whiff rates against the curveball are massive and you could argue Berrios has one of the best curveballs in baseball. I expect him to pitch well tonight.
Madison Bumgarner (9.5k both sites) @ Pittsburgh
Somewhere in San Jose, California my fellow CPR writer Shaun “Freshie” Evans is smiling. I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop on Bum this season, but he’s proven to some degree that is he is back, going 6+ innings in all four starts with an impressive .92 WHIP and almost a strikeout per inning. I don’t think he’s back in Cy Young form, but I do think he’s a pretty safe option here against a Pirates team that has struggled badly this season against lefties (11 strikeouts against Quintana and Corbin last week).
There’s no better place for a lefty to pitch than in spacious PNC Park. You can give up a lot of long fly balls to left field that get swallowed up by the North Side Notch. I like Mad Bum tonight from a run prevention standpoint, but he certainly could rack up some strikeouts while he’s at against the free-swinging Marte, Cervelli, and Kang.
MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Options
German Marquez (8.5k both sites) vs. Philadelphia
By now you should probably realize that I am a Marquez truther! And while I won’t recommend using a pitcher from Coors field in cash games (though I’ve done it before), I certainly love using them in GPPs because you can almost always get them at reduced ownership.
Just look at last night, we saw Kyle Freeland pitch a gem against these Phillies and he was absolutely un-owned. Personally, I think Marquez is a better pitcher than Freeland and matches up even better against the Phillies. He throws hard and has solid downward movement on his fastball that leads to a lot of ground balls. His 12.6% swinging strike rate is second to only Verlander on the slate and we’ve seen Philadelphia strike out often this year, despite the power in their lineup.
Marco Gonzales (8.4k FD, 8k DK) @ L.A. Angels
Wow, look at the price on Marco! It’s tough to pay that much for a guy who pitches to contact, but this is where I remind you (feels like every week that I do this) that left-handers against the Angels is one of the elite matchups in baseball right now! Marco dominated this Angels lineup back on April second and was two outs from a complete game before coming out. If you need more evidence of how bad the Angels have been against lefties just this season, go look at how they fared against Cole Hamels, Brett Anderson, and Mike Minor (I’m still taking not-so-subtle victory laps three days later).
Carlos Rodon (8.8k FD, 8.3k DK) @Detroit
One more lefty for you to consider tonight and it’s Rodon against the lowly Tigers. But, wait, Detroit broke out yesterday to score 9 runs, right? Yes, but they still have the 5th lowest wOBA against lefties and the worst ISO rating on the slate. But won’t they just put 9 righties in there against Rodon today? Yes, and I hope they do! Rodon is a “reverse splits” pitcher who pounds righties with a fastball, slider, sinker combo that ends up in a lot of soft contact. Walks can be an issue, but so far this year he’s only walked more than two batters once. I’ll keep picking on the Tigers tonight and I guarantee you can roster Rondon for single digit ownership tonight.
MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms and SP2s
Jordan Lyles (8k FD, 7.9k DK) vs. San Francisco
Man, I hope they are able to play through the raindrops tonight in Pittsburgh because I love both of these pitchers. Lyles has been such a pleasant surprise for my Buccos as their fifth starter, allowing only one run in his first two Pirate starts and piling up 10 strikeouts in an impressive performance against the Cubs. I love the matchup for him here against a Giants offense that has been abysmal so far this Spring.
Caleb Smith (7.6k FD, 8.2k DK) vs. Washington
I love playing Caleb Smith in GPPs, he’s usually affordable and brings a ton of K upside every time out. He’s a boom/bust type pitcher due to the hard contact and fly ball rates, but he seems to have at least got his walk issues under control this season, walking only 6 batters over his first three starts. While the Nats have some good right-handed hitters (like red-hot Rendon), they also have a pretty high strikeout rate (25%) against lefties and Smith also has some reverse splits in his favor. Facing the Nats at home helps a fly-ball pitcher like Smith, too, since it’s a more pitcher-friendly park.
Anibal Sanchez (6.8k FD, 8.1k DK) @ Miami
I guess DraftKings got the memo about how bad the Marlins offense is right now and FanDuel didn’t, or just chose to ignore it and didn’t price Sanchez up. If you want to spend up on some stacks tonight (in Coors or elsewhere) then I love this price on Sanchez on FanDuel. He’s not really a strikeout pitcher at this stage of his career but does have one of the best soft contact rates on the slate. He’s mixing 4-5 different pitches to keep hitters off-balance and should face a very right-handed heavy lineup from Miami tonight. The Marlins are striking out a ridiculous 30% of the time against right-handed pitching so we could even see Sanchez pile up some K’s tonight. He feels really safe with some upside.
MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can(s) of the Night
Jason Vargas @ St. Louis
Jason “Var-gas can” is back to being a terrible pitcher after fooling the Mets that he might be a serviceable fifth starter. He’s managed to last only 1 and 1/3 innings over his last TWO starts and today he will face the red-hot bats of the St. Louis Cardinals. These red-birds have serious right-handed power with Goldschmidt, DeJong, and Ozuna at the 2, 3, and 4 spots in the lineup. Oh, and a pretty good lefty leadoff man in Matt Carpenter. I know @2Locksports will be starting his lineups with a Cardinals stack tonight (as every good self-loathing Mets fan should).
Drew Smyly vs. Houston
Do you know who’s actually a worse left-handed pitcher by every metric? That’s right, Drew Smyly! Drew makes his return to the “GCOTN” for the second time this season as he has to face a right-handed bevy of power hitters from Houston at home. Smyly sports a poor walk rate, a huge hard contact rate, and a massive fly ball rate. All of that should add up to some of these big boppers like Bregman, Altuve, Springer, and Correa leaving the yard tonight. Stack up those Astros bats! (and that’s coming from a guy who almost never does!)
MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review
Here’s where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.
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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.
On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Berrios-Sanchez, but it’s a close call between Sanchez and Gonzales.
My favorite GPP pairing is likely going to be Marquez and either Smith or Rodon. If you play mainly on FanDuel try to spread your ownership on your pitchers evenly among 3-4 guys, I wouldn’t recommend using more than that otherwise you are probably hurting your chances at a big night.
Cash Rankings
- Berrios
- Bumgarner
- Sanchez (SP2)
- Gonzales (SP2)
- Lyles
GPP Rankings
- Berrios
- Marquez
- Smith
- Rodon
- Lyles
Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!