Main DraftKings MLB Picks April 20: Is Nola really a bargain?
By Mike Marteny
Main DraftKings MLB Picks April 20: Is Nola really a bargain?
We have the trademark Ginsued Saturday slate for our DraftKings MLB tournaments. The early slate is fairly cut and dried since there are eight games. After that things get tricky. There’s a two game turbo that isn’t really worth our time and a five game main slate that we will cover here.
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We have a few top tier arms floating around, but we are going to need some value here.
Rain took away two games last night, but we look clear for the main slate tonight. There is a 12 mph wind in from right in Arlington, but after that, even the wind looks pretty calm.
Last night’s riding Caleb Smith and a hybrid White Sox/Astros/Cardinals stack put me in the top 500. I would have been in the top 100 had Marco Gonzales not been left in to face Trout for the fourth time. Still, last night was a good night with three of the four lineups placing.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
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DraftKings MLB Early Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Gerrit Cole ($10,700): The Rangers are only hitting .223 against Cole in 94 at bats with three homers, eight runs, and an astronomical 33 strikeouts. Whatever runs Cole gives up will be eradicated by the strikeouts. The wind blowing in only helps. The Astros may get into a couple, but Cole’s still putting up 20’s at worst.
Luis Castillo ($9,600): Well, the Padres are hitting a robust .382 against Castillo with five homers and 11 runs in just 34 at bats. This is a tough sell. However, the Padres have gone cold, this is a pitcher’s park, and Castillo certainly seems to have figured some things out. Castillo has a 1.46 ERA in four starts this year with 32 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. The breakout is here, so enjoy the ride!
Middle Tier:
Yusei Kikuchi ($8,400): Kikuchi has looked very average in his first MLB season, and it’s not because the Mariners are treating him with kid gloves. Not all, anyway. However, the Angels are historically bad against lefties, and if not for a Trout homer on the fourth plate appearance against Gonzales, they would have been again last night. There is a lot of upside here even if Kikuchi only goes six innings.
Aaron Nola ($8,100): It’s weird seeing Nola priced here, honestly. I get it. The 7.45 ERA is a huge turn off. It’s nearly impossible for a pitcher to get back on track in Coors. That said, Nola was strong in his only career start there. Coors hasn’t hit peak season yet. It’s still relatively safe for pitchers there. I really want to take a shot at this price. You don’t need me to tell you what the upside is.
Bargain Pitchers:
Trevor Cahill ($7,400): Cahill dominated the Mariners in Seattle earlier this year, racking up 19.7 DraftKings points in that game. In his only home start, Cahill pitched very well against a strong Milwaukee offense that had an extra hitter. I think this could be a pitcher’s duel, and I kind of want some shares of Cahill tonight.
Eric Lauer ($7,000): I get the appeal of Lauer at home, but I also realize the Reds have a lot of right handed power here. Lauer is allowing an average of a homer per start, even at home, and he doesn’t strike out enough batters to really feed his upside. However, if you need to go cheap on pitching, Lauer is likely the best option. The Reds don’t score a lot of runs.
Adrian Sampson ($4,800): Sampson has been serviceable aside from getting destroyed by Oakland last week. His first start was against these same Astros in this same ballpark and he turned in a solid performance. However, that was before the Astros became the hottest team in the league. There is a ton of risk here, but Sampson pulled off the unlikely once. Can he do it again?
My picks: Castillo, Nola; Castillo, Cahill
DraftKings MLB Main Notes:
I’m not playing Ryu in a hitter’s park, especially when you consider that Braun and Yelich have homered off of him already. The Brewers are light on right handed power with Jesus Aguilar struggling, but I still like Yasmani Grandal. Hernan Perez could be worth a look too, but I’m not sure how aggressively I want to chase this.
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The Brewers are treating this as a bullpen game which means we need to stack the Dodgers on the night slate. Bellinger, Muncy, Seager, Joc Pederson, Steve Sax, Rick Monday, Jackie Robinson. All the Dodgers. ALL OF THEM.
Joey Gallo is hot already, and has smacked two homers off of Cole in 13 at bats. Of course, those are his only two hits in 13 at bats. Choo has the other homer, and Elvis Andrus is 4-10 with three steals.
Considering what the A’s just did to Sampson, I think I want to go after him. George Springer, Altuve, Correa, Alex Bregman. Pick your poison. They’re all good.
Charlie Blackmon is 3-7 with three doubles against Nola. It’s only a matter of time before one of those goes over the fence. He walked them off last night. This could be where Blackmon gets going. By the way, the rest of the Rockies are 4-25 with one run and 13 strikeouts against Nola.
Antonio Senzatela was good in his first start of the year, but he’s not really in play at home. Ever. His ERA is above 5 in Denver in 119.2 innings. I’ll chase him with a few Phillies lefties, namely Bryce Harper and Nick Williams. Be on the lookout for value plays here since Segura, McCutchen, and Kingery are all day to day.
You can throw a few Padres at Castillo if you want. Francisco Mejia and Hunter Renfroe have combined for four homers and nine RBI in just nine at bats.
Eugenio Suarez is an appealing option here and maybe Tucker Barnhart, but there are better places to attack than San Diego tonight.
Mike Trout against a lefty. That is all.
The only Mariner that has hit Trevor Cahill well is Dee Gordon. Dan Vogelbach is 2-4, so there’s that too. That’s about as far as I go. I just don’t see either of those offenses doing much.
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