MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday, 4/20 – Up in Smoke
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Friday’s MLB DFS slate was all about pitching as four of the top five raw point plays were pitchers with Jordan Lyles, Marcus Stroman, Caleb Smith and Justin Verlander all went for 25+ on a night where offense was scarce and although our picks of DeSclafani/Gonzo were solid, the all out Jason Vargas attack was limited to only Jose Martinez having a big night – thanks for nothing Vargas.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
Welcome to another split slate Saturday with 7 games on the early slate and 5 games on the main slate on FantasyDraft which gives us a a whole day of MLB DFS action to dive into. After a ton of rain on Friday, it looks like the only issue we have here early is Detroit/Chicago which looks quite ugly and while New York/Kansas City may have some delay to start, the afternoon looks open for baseball so this 7 game early slate may actually play more like a 6 gamer.
The early slate is headlined by a few top arms but none at a higher price point or in a better spot than Twins RHP Jose Berrios ($21.4K) who gets a road start against the Orioles in Camden Yards. Berrios has an elite 27% K rate and 12% swinging strike rate this season, has gone at least 6 innings in each of his first 4 starts, putting up 20+ fantasy points in 3/4 outings. Berrios is the cash game SP1 and with some value already visible here today – I think he makes for a core GPP play as well with his unique combination of safety and upside.
Masahiro Tanaka ($17.8K) and Jameson Taillon ($17.7K) are the logical GPP/SP2 pivots and while Tanaka is a massive -230 home favorite against the Royals, Taillon has the seemingly “safer” route with a home start in PNC park against the Giants. The fact that these two are essentially the same price gives you flexibility in your line-ups to multi-enter and simply swap them out 1-1 if multi-entering but if forced to choose I think we have to dig deeper.
The Royals certainly have the more dangerous line-up but they also have a more K heavy projected starting unit with a 24% K rate against RHP since 2018. Tanaka is a heavy slider pitcher and this projected line-up has 7 hitters with a 35% or higher whiff rate against that pitch type.
Taillon meanwhile is a heavy ground ball, low hard contact arm which considering the weak hitting Giants line-up, should set him up minimally for a good run prevention spot. One interesting tie-breaker here is the umpire data as where Tanaka has a neutral to slight hitters umpire, Taillon gets an extreme pitcher’s umpire in Lance Barksdale who calls 11% more strikes than the average umpire and gives up 8% fewer runs.
While I think you can mix and match, Taillon gets the slight edge in my eyes if forced to choose.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
I know the Cardinals bats let us down last night, but I have to wonder if FantasyDraft was slow to react to the pricing on these hitters under the assumption Jacob deGrom was starting for the Mets. With Jake on the IL, the Mets will start Chris Flexen and when you start looking at the pricing on the Cardinals, you realize how much value is here with guys like Matt Carpenter ($7.2K), Jose Martinez ($6.4K) and even Paul Goldschmidt ($8.3K) all feeling a tick too cheap considering the opponent.
Flexen is the definition of minor league depth, a guy who in 50+ IP at the major league level has a 14% K rate compared to a 15% walk rate, with a 6.42 xFIP, 2.15 HR/9 and a 38% HC rate. Considering the pricing on these Cardinals core bats, I am not sure you are going to get better point per dollar plays and you can really extend this stack in one of two ways.
You can either go all-in and pay up for Paul DeJong and Marcell Ozuna who are both over $9K OR drop down and stack the cheaper hitters like Dexter Fowler and Yadier Molina who are both under $7K.
Initially I had some interest in Julio Teheran but that was before I realized that Francisco Lindor ($9.2K) was due back for the Indians today. The issue with Teheran throughout his career has always been lefties – as he sees is K rate drop to 17% and the HR/9 spike to 1.4 and with Lindor joining Jose Ramirez ($9.4K) at the top of this line-up, the Indians now become a line-up I think we can stack as opposed to one we attack with starting pitchers.
Lindor and J-Ram have .244 and .282 ISO marks versus RHP since the start of 2018 and while folks may fail to notice the return of Lindor with it being a weekend slate and the final game on the early, I think it presents an interesting opportunity to jump on one of the best hitters in baseball before the masses do.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup:
Please note – the sample lineup noted here is meant to be for illustrative purposes only and not to be used as a plug and play build:
SP: Jose Berrios
SP: Jameson Taillon/Masahiro Tanaka
IF: Matt Carpenter
IF: Paul Goldschmidt
IF: Francisco Lindor
OF: Jose Ramirez
OF: Jose Martinez
OF: Dexter Fowler
UTIL: Yadier Molina
UTIL:$7.1K one-off
Slate Overview: At first glance, I think this is a slate where you can pay up for both arms and still build strong line-up as it seems, at least to me, that the Cardinals prices were expecting deGrom and now they get Chris Flexen – while the Cardinals bats let us down last night, I think we can go back to them today against an arm that people outside of Mets fan, likely don’t realize is completely mediocre. Back to the well today boys!
MLB DFS – Main Slate Breakdown:
Pitching or Coors? Coors or Pitching?
We get another Coors Slate, and with it being only 5 games, the focus will likely be on it even more so than usual but we also have a ton of high-end pitching so the decision may come down to which build you prefer.
Gerrit Cole ($20.6K) gets the same spot that Justin Verlander dominated last night in Texas, and this is a match-up Cole has already done well in this year with a 6 inning, 9 K, 21+ FP performance. Cole has a 36.7% K rate and 16.3% swinging strike rate in 2019 – I mean really, there is not much to say here other than Cole has the same 30+ fantasy point upside and becomes the clear SP1 here tonight.
After rolling with Tanner Roark and Anthony DeSclafani with success the last two nights in Petco against the Padres, it would be hard to not go the same route with the most talented Reds arm in Luis Castillo ($18.7K). Roark and DeSclafani both put up 20+ fantasy points in this same match-up the last two nights and with a right-handed heavy Padres line-up, it sets up perfectly for Castillo who has a 25% K rate with an elite 54% GB rate against RHB since the start of 2018.
Paying up for both arms will likely lead you away from Coors Field, but I think when you consider that Aaron Nola is one of the pitchers, I am not sure that game is one I HAVE to have.
Staying with the Reds, they take on LHP Eric Lauer who has given up a .240+ ISO mark to RHB with a 48% HC rate this season and will have to navigate through a trio of lefty mashers with Eugenio Suarez, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig who are all priced in the $7-$7.5K range which allows you to spend up for both arms without sacrificing pop. If you go this route, a full Reds stack is certainly viable and cost-effective as Joey Votto ($7.6K) and Curt Casali ($6.8K) give you a full on 1-5 stack that is going to cost you around $7K/per hitter.
While Hyun-Jin Ryu remains death to lefties, he has struggled with RHB this season to the tune of a .316 ISO mark and much like the Reds batters, the Brew crew has some cheap pop we can exploit including Ryan Braun ($7.4K) and Jesus Aguilar ($6.6K) who have .242 and .239 ISO marks against LHP since the start of 2018.
The fact you can stack up hitters with high ISO profiles and cheap price tags, gives you a road map to paying up for both arms while not sacrificing offensive upside.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – the sample lineup noted here is meant to be for illustrative purposes only and not to be used as a plug and play build:
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SP: Gerrit Cole
SP: Luis Castillo
IF: Eugenio Suarez
IF: Joey Votto
IF: Jesus Aguilar
OF: Ryan Braun
OF: Yasiel Puig
OF: Matt Kemp
UTIL: Curt Casali
UTIL: Mike Trout
Slate Overview: With Aaron Nola as one of the arms in Coors, I think I will take the approach of fading Coors on a small slate where the ownership will be highly concentrated and instead pay up for two elite K arms. The Reds/Brewers power stacks give you cost-effective options to make this work while leaving you just enough room for a decent one-off in Mike Trout. Now obviously, you can pay down from Trout and spread the savings elsewhere but also nice when you can get the best hitter in baseball (not named Pete Alonso) as your on-off.
Enjoy your Saturday all – Happy Easter – we will see you back here with Picks and Pivots on Monday!
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