MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Saturday, 4/20

MLB DFS Pitching: Friday, Saturday 4/20

Welcome back to a special Saturday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

I hope last night treated you well, it was a little tough navigating the weather spots, but overall my plays panned out pretty nicely and I was able to make some profit.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for the slate here, usually accompanied by Vegas odds. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits.

Today we have a classic Saturday split slate and both major sites handled them differently. There are 4 early games that lock at 1:05 on FanDuel, but DraftKings made their early slate all 8 games from 1:05 to 4:05.  Both slates have 5-game “main” slates that lock at 7:05. FanDuel does have an “all day” slate but those are annoying to play and frankly, the contest selection sucks.  I’m going to break down BOTH sets of games today for you with options at every price tier.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article.  Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second, Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis.

Early Slate

Heath Fillmyer vs. Masahiro Tanaka (-230)

Ervin Santana vs. Daniel Norris (-130)

Robert Gsellman (-128) vs. Miles Mikolas

Zach Greinke vs. Yu Darvish (-130)

THESE  NEXT GAMES ARE ON THE DK EARLY SLATE, BUT NOT FANDUEL

Jose Berrios (-130) vs. Dan Straily

Matt Shoemaker vs. Mike Fiers (-140)

Julio Teheran vs. Corey Kluber (-155)

Derek Holland vs. Jameson Taillon (-122)

Main Slate

Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Chase Anderson

Gerrit Cole (-195) vs. Adrian Sampson

Aaron Nola (-115) vs. Antonio Senzetela

Luis Castillo (-115) vs. Eric Lauer

Yusei Kikuchi vs. Trevor Cahill (-118)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces (Early)

Jose Berrios (10.4k FD, 10.8k DK) @ Baltimore

Berrios is available on the all-day FanDuel slate but only on the early only slate for DK. He was slated to start last night against the Orioles before the game got washed out. Here’s what I wrote about him yesterday.

Some might worry that JB has some poor road splits, but I am throwing that stat out the window today as I think that’s something we will see disappear as he becomes a more experienced pitcher. He went in Philadelphia and pitched well a few weeks ago and I see no reason why he can’t go in Baltimore and dominate this Orioles lineup.

Berrios has been great against righties this year and last, holding them to a .279 wOBA and will face mainly right-handed bats in this Orioles lineup. The O’s have a surprisingly low K-rate this year, but their whiff rates against the curveball are massive and you could argue Berrios has one of the best curveballs in baseball. I expect him to pitch well tonight.

Masahiro Tanaka (9.1k FD, 9.2k DK) vs. Kansas City

Tanaka is really only a FanDuel play for me, and he’s really the only guy I really like on that four-game early slate.  He’s a rather large -230 favorite and gets to face a Royals team that has been slumping at the plate recently. He’s always a risk for giving up a few long balls, but he has a great swinging strike rate and should get plenty of run support from his offense today.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Options (Early)

Zach Greinke (9.3k FD, 9.8k DK) @ Chicago Cubs

Greinke has been really solid for three straight outings, after getting roughed up by the Dodgers on Opening Day. Attacking the Cubs offense is not usually an optimal approach, but the wind looks to be blowing in at Wrigley today and the Cubs offense has not been firing on all cylinders this season with sluggers Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant mired in slumps.

Greinke is still an effective pitcher, even if he doesn’t have overpowering stuff anymore. He doesn’t walk anyone and has learned how to mix his pitches well, relying on a low 90’s fastball with movement and being able to locate his breaking balls. He does give up a lot of hard contact, but he has a pretty solid groundball rate and is a crafty veteran that I think can stymie this Cubs offense today. He and Tanaka are the only guys I would even consider on the FanDuel early slate.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms and SP2s (Early)

Matt Shoemaker (7.5k FD, 8.3k DK) @ Oakland

I’m going back to Shoe today even though he let me down in his last start. He’s shown enough in these early starts for me to think that he has figured out how to be an effective major league starter. The matchup with Oakland isn’t perfect, but he does have the benefit of seeing 7-8 right-handed bats and facing them on the road where he gets a major ballpark upgrade. His 13.4% swinging strike rate at least means he carries some upside against the free-swinging Athletics.

Derek Holland (8k FD, 6.8k DK) @ Pittsburgh

Holland is not a guy that I would recommend normally, but he’s also not the total gas can that we often want to make him out to me. The reality here is that the Pirates scratched out four runs against Madison Bumgarner in the first inning and then were shut down by him the rest of the game. They are definitely vulnerable against left-handed pitching and they lost their center fielder Starling Marte last night when he collided with teammate Erik Gonzalez in the outfield. We could see a lineup full of bench players for the Buccos, while means Holland could actually be a serviceable SP2 on DK today at that price.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces (Main)

Gerrit Cole (11.1k FD, 10.7k DK) @ Texas

There is just one cash game ace today and his name is Gerrit Cole.  While I avoided Verlander last night (and turns out I didn’t need to), I have no problem going to Cole here against the Texas Rangers on the road. Cole has owned this team since coming to the Astros. He pitched effectively against them in Arlington earlier this month and is coming off an 11 strikeout domination of Seattle in his last outing.

There are some really attractive pivots that I am going to get to here in a minute, but none of them have the floor that Cole offers us in cash games. He has 5-6 strikeouts built into his linescore on a nightly basis and always carries the upside for double digits. It would be incredibly risky to fade him in cash games, especially on a five-game slate. Even if he gives up a home run or two to the powerful Texas left-handed hitters, he should still have enough Ks and pitch deep enough into the game to make up for it.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Options (Main)

Luis Castillo (9.8k FD, 9.6k DK) @ San Diego

Castillo looks like he could be breaking out and becoming the pitcher that the Reds have been hoping he would for the last several years. He scuffled a bit in his last start against the Dodgers, walking 5 hitters and allowing 4 hits in 5 innings, but had been really solid in his first three outings. The control is something to keep an eye on, but his improving ground ball rate and strikeout numbers are promising. The matchup here is really what is appealing, as the Reds right-handers Tanner Roark and Anthony DeScalfani (both considerably less talented pitchers) have both limited the Padres to one run in each of their starts in this series. I think Castillo could dominate this lineup tonight and compete with Cole for the top raw points from the pitching position…at a nice discount.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (9.4k, 9k DK)

Ryu is a guy I’ve been using each time out and he burned me in his last start when he left with an injury. I’ll have to forgive him and not let that recency bias keep me from playing him tonight against the Brewers. It’s a tough matchup against a good team in a dangerous park, but when I see what fellow Dodgers lefty Julio Urias did to the Brew Crew just two days ago (6 innings, 9 strikeouts), it gives me some confidence in Ryu here. As long as he’s healthy, he’s a good enough pitcher to handle any major league lineup, and the Brewers have shown us that while they have some power, they also have the ability to strike out (24% this season).

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms and SP2s (Main)

Yusei Kikuchi (7.8k FD, 8.4k DK)

I have not used the Mariners rookie yet this season, but I am considering him tonight based on the matchup only. He’s facing the Angels, and you should know by now that any lefty facing the Angels is someone I have interest in using. Marco Gonzales was solid last night until an 8th inning home run by Mike Trout and still ended up with a decent score. Kikuchi doesn’t have great strikeout numbers, but this is just a run prevention spot and a price play if you want to fit some more bats in there. I wouldn’t expect more than 6 innings and hopefully 1-2 run with 4-5 strikeouts.

Antonio Senzetela (5.8k both sites)

This is purely a price play and mainly an SP2 recommendation for DK. Senzetela looked sharp in his first start of the season, and we’ve seen these Coors game go way under their totals in both of the first two games in this series. The Phillies have some pop in their lineup, but also have strikeout potential and only have a few lefties to throw at Antonio tonight.  It’s a nice leverage play, too, since we usually see ownership on the hitters in Coors games.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

Here’s where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not. Pay attention to the games

Cash Rankings

EARLY:

1. Berrios
2. Tanaka
3. Greinke

MAIN:

1. Cole
2. Castillo
3. Ryu

GPP Rankings

EARLY:

1. Berrios
2. Greinke
3. Shoemaker

MAIN:

1. Castillo
2. Ryu
3. Cole

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!