The 2019 NFL Draft finally kicks off on Thursday night, where there should be enough drama to warrant being picked up by Netflix for a second season.
Every year, the NFL Draft solidifies its status as sport’s most popular guessing game. We’ve endured months upon months of rumors, hot takes, and arguing with strangers on Twitter, to learn exactly which prospect will be labeled a bust by its team’s fan base after one bad quarter in a preseason game.
Unless you’re employed in the scouting department of one of the 32 NFL teams drafting prospects this weekend, chances are you don’t know exactly what will happen (that even includes the bozo whose words you’re reading right now!).
So, with mock drafts across the country holding on for dear life, here’s a final look (with potential trades!) at how I think the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft could play out on Thursday night.
We’ll know right away on Thursday night whether the past few months of “Kyler Murray-to-Arizona” rumors are true after all. While I don’t have any insider information, I’m still not completely sold on this idea, especially for a team that doesn’t seem particularly motivated to move last year’s franchise quarterback, Josh Rosen. If Murray isn’t the pick, Ohio State’s Nick Bosa should be the selection, with the wild card being Quinnen Williams.
The 49ers have done their homework on Nick Bosa if Arizona goes with Murray, but even with the draft capital they’ve spent on the defensive line in recent years, Williams seems like the slam dunk choice at this spot without Bosa on the board.
**VIA NEW YORK JETS**
Surprise! If Murray-to-Arizona doesn’t happen, I think the Bengals could pull the surprise of the draft by trading up with the Jets for their quarterback of the future. New head coach Zac Taylor (a Norman, OK native) knows all too well about proving doubters wrong as an undersized quarterback as a former Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year at Nebraska. Murray would provide a jolt of energy to an organization that desperately needs one and doesn’t seem to have Andy Dalton in its long-term plans.
Will they take a quarterback? Will this be a “surprise” pick as some are suggesting? As the great Kevin Garnett once said about the Oakland Raiders (I think), “anything is possible.” In Mike Mayock’s first draft as GM, they decide to pick a dynamic linebacker in LSU’s Devin White who should anchor the middle of their defense for years to come. Some potential dark horse picks? Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins and Clemson’s Christian Wilkins.
Rumors have long persisted about the Bucs’ affection for Devin White, which feels a bit like the eventually too-good-to-be-true predictions of Quenton Nelson to Chicago last year. Having lost Kwon Alexander in free agency, the Bucs need playmakers with speed at linebacker and Bush provides that in spades. Kentucky’s Josh Allen and Clemson’s Christian Wilkins could also be considerations here.
Pretty much nobody has a clear picture of exactly what the New York Giants will do in this draft, which is likely exactly how they want it. Ed Oliver or Dwayne Haskins are possibilities here (or maybe even Daniel Jones), but instead the team takes the best pass rusher on the board in Josh Allen. Allen was a program-changing player at Kentucky and his improvement during his college career could mean a very bright future in the NFL is in store.
I’m tempted to put Iowa’s T.J. Hockenson or Florida’s Jawaan Taylor at this spot, but instead we’ll go with some help for the Jaguars’ pass rush in local product Brian Burns. Calais Campbell isn’t getting any younger and Yannick Ngakoue is in the last year of his contract, so this is a prime spot for Jacksonville to score a player who could wind up as the best edge rusher in the class when all is said and done.
**VIA DETROIT LIONS**
In this scenario, the Texans engineer a trade halfway up the board with Detroit to land arguably the best offensive tackle in the class. With two second-round selections, Houston can afford to be aggressive in finding how to best protect franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson.
I imagine the Bills will be very open to trading out of the top ten without a real clear prospect fit at this point (although I’m sure Jonah Williams and Ed Oliver are possibilities), but Iowa’s T.J. Hockenson would be a nice addition if they decide to stay put. He doesn’t have the otherworldly athleticism of teammate Noah Fant but Hockenson’s versatility as an in-line blocker will help the running game and make for a great security blanket over the middle of the field for Josh Allen.
Another team that has been on a roller coaster of a “will they or won’t they take a quarterback” ride, the Broncos figure to be in a position to take the top player on the board. While new head coach Vic Fangio might love to take speedy linebacker Devin Bush, he instead lands a dynamic defensive player on the interior in Houston’s Ed Oliver. Don’t let those talking about Oliver’s size fool you, he’s one of the best players in the entire class and a potential Von Miller, Ed Oliver and Bradley Chubb front seven would be nightmare-inducing for opposing offensive coordinators.
**VIA CINCINNATI BENGALS**
The Jets seem intent on trading out of their spot at number three and if they don’t stay there to take Ed Oliver, their move down the board with the Cincinnati could land them one of the best offensive linemen in the class. Keeping Sam Darnold upright will be key to the Jets’ success in the coming years and adding a player as consistent and technically-proficient as Williams is a great start.
The Packers have two first-round picks and Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback, so it’s safe to say they’re in better shape than most teams picking in the top 15. After stocking up on defense in free agency, they add a shiny new weapon with off-the-charts athleticism for Rodgers in Iowa tight end Noah Fant at number twelve.
**VIA MIAMI DOLPHINS**
The fifteenth pick is seemingly the floor for Dwayne Haskins, so it’s logical to assume that the Raiders would need to engineer a trade up from one of their later first-round picks in order to take Haskins if they pass on him at four. How the quarterback market falls is anyone’s guess at this point (which is exactly what I’m doing), but you’d have to imagine Gruden and Mayock would love Haskins’ developmental upside and efficiency as a passer with an eye on developing him into a franchise quarterback.
Grady Jarrett will play 2019 on the franchise tag but it’s unclear whether he’ll be in Atlanta long term after that. As the free agent market for premium defensive linemen continues to skyrocket, the Falcons could draft his replacement if they deem Jarrett’s price tag to be too high. Wilkins has been a dynamic player on a Clemson defensive line that could have as many as three players taken in the first round on Thursday. It also wouldn’t shock me if he went much higher than this, with the Giants and Bucs being two potential destinations.
Again, the quarterback market will be one of the most important developments in round one and if Washington decides to not wait until the second round for a player like Will Grier, Duke’s Daniel Jones could be the next best fit with Haskins off the board. Missouri’s Drew Lock is another possibility, but I’m not sure I seem him going this high anymore.
Offensive line is certainly an option at this spot but if not, safety could be the next position the Panthers take a look at. Savage is a bit undersized but offers dynamic playmaking ability and ballhawking skills. The Panthers have some familiarity with the Maryland program having taken D.J. Moore in the first round last year, so don’t be surprised if Savage is also on their radar.
Taylor was one player who I had a hard time finding a fit for once the Jags passed on him at seven, so this seems like the next most logical landing spot. Taylor’s tenacity and upside seem to fit the type of playing style GM Dave Gettleman would love to add to his roster.
The Vikings will be on the lookout for help along the offensive line, as Mike Zimmer has made no secret about wanting to return the club’s offensive focus back to the running game. Slotting Oklahoma’s mountain of a man, Cody Ford, at guard next to Brian O’Neill would be a step in the right direction towards accomplishing that goal.
Tennessee figures to look to the defensive front with its first-round selection, and I’ve gotten the sense throughout the draft process that one player they like is Notre Dame’s Jerry Tillery. Inconsistency is a hallmark of Tillery’s game but when he’s on, he’s one of the most dominant interior players of this entire class.
The Steelers are in the market for help in the defensive backfield but this cornerbacks class is one of the most difficult to pin down in years. Every player comes with their own set of concerns (whether character, testing or production), but for now we’ll go with a player with as much upside as any in LSU’s Greedy Williams. Byron Murphy and Lonnie Johnson, Jr. may also be possibilities here, as well.
GM John Schneider has had quite an eventful week, making quarterback Russell Wilson the highest-paid player in the league and shipping Frank Clark to Kansas City for what ended up being quite a haul of draft capital. He’s made no secret about wanting to accumulate more picks in this draft and adding Kansas City’s 29th overall pick gives them substantially more flexibility. While edge prospects Brian Burns and Rashan Gary (or even a dark horse option like Ohio State WR Parris Campbell) are options here, I think safety is where they ultimately go. The ‘Hawks have lacked a tone-setter in the secondary since the retirement of Kam Chancellor, and Abram has a very similar intensity to his game.
Surrounding Lamar Jackson with weapons and building up the team’s running game figure to be key areas of focus for the Ravens early in this draft, so Oklahoma speedster Marquise Brown should be squarely in the conversation for Baltimore with this pick. Brown’s lack of bulk lead to concerns about his durability, but many of the same things were said about Jackson at this point last year. Another plus for Brown? Plenty of experience with mobile quarterbacks after catching passes from Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in each of the past two seasons. N’Keal Harry, Hakeem Butler and Josh Jacobs are also names I would keep an eye on here.
**FROM DETROIT LIONS, VIA HOUSTON**
A Super Bowl champion with twelve picks in the following draft is a scary proposition, but that’s just where the New England Patriots stand heading into the 2019 NFL Draft. Quarterback may certainly be in play at some point (Daniel Jones or Will Grier are two names that come to mind), but I think New England could seize an opportunity early to trade up and land one of the best offensive linemen in the class in Garrett Bradbury. The Pats could envision Bradbury eventually replacing impending free agent Joe Thuney, much in the same day they did with Trent Brown and Isaiah Wynn last year.
**VIA OAKLAND RAIDERS**
With the Dolphins in full rebuild mode, investing in help up front on both sides of the ball will be the team’s primary focus. Boston College’s Chris Lindstrom is an athletic interior offensive line prospect with positional versatility and excellent football bloodlines. He’s just the type of player new head coach Brian Flores would love to pencil in the starting lineup on day one.
Philadelphia could go a number of different ways with this pick and probably seizes on an opportunity for any player unexpectedly falling to this spot. For now, we’ll go with a rangy safety prospect in Delaware’s Nasir Adderley, who figures to be the first FCS player off the board, even if he falls into the second round.
You couldn’t draw up a more perfect draft than the one GM Chris Ballard had for the Colts last year and now he’ll get another chance to continue to build up the Indianapolis roster. More help on defense will be in the cards but adding a dynamic receiving threat like Ohio State’s Parris Campbell would be a welcome addition. The Colts could also go safety at this spot, so look for Washington’s Taylor Rapp as another possibility.
With a cornerstone linebacker and quarterback in place, the Raiders can use this selection to take a more high-risk, high-reward prospect like Michigan’s Rashan Gary. Gary has enough athleticism to be worthy of a top ten pick but the production is severely lacking. If the Raiders think they can unlock Gary’s talent in their defensive scheme, he could be an absolute steal in the late stages of the first round.
Having nailed their first-round selection in 2018 with First Team All-Pro Derwin James, the Chargers are in a good spot to take whichever top prospect falls to them on draft day. Here, that comes in the form of Clemson’s Clelin Ferrell, with DT Dexter Lawrence and CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. as wild cards at this spot.
**VIA SEATTLE**
Having the 34th overall selection makes the Colts a prime candidate to trade back into the first round and one player I believe could be a target is Missisippi State’s Jeffery Simmons. There are plenty of red flags when it comes to Simmons but most evaluators believe he’s easily one of the top ten players in the class from a talent standpoint. The idea of having a fifth-year option for Simmons should be an enticing possibility fora number of teams at the end of the first round.
Having added a dynamic playmaker on offense at number twelve, the Packers could go a number of different directions with their second first-round pick. Kansas State’s Dalton Risner is one of the toughest and physical offensive lineman in the class and offers enticing positional versatility. Plenty of teams will be interested in Risner’s services between this spot and early on Day 2.
Roger Saffold and John Sullivan are both out of the picture for the Rams and Andrew Whitworth can’t be an ageless wonder forever. This pick figures to be on the offensive line and one fit is Mississippi State’s Elgton Jenkins. Jenkins possesses outstanding length and should immediately translate to guard or center at the next level.
**VIA NEW ENGLAND**
In this scenario, the Lions wind up trading down to the last pick of the first round where they pick up one of the class’ most intriguing talents. Montez Sweat could go as high as fourth overall to Oakland or even out of the first round entirely. His heart condition is something that reportedly has made some teams proceed with caution but there’s a lot to like about adding a defensive lineman with 4.41 speed if you’re Matt Patricia.