Main DraftKings MLB Picks April 24: Hamels dominates Wrigley
By Mike Marteny
Main DraftKings MLB Picks April 24: Hamels dominates Wrigley
We have an even split for our DraftKings MLB contests today. There are seven early games, seven late games, and the Braves-Reds tilt that is only available on showdown because they had the audacity to start 25 minutes prior to the rest of the late games. This will focus on the seven late games in the main tournament.
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There is no rain risk on the evening slate, but there is some wind that could help. A 12 mph wind out to right in Boston is good for Red Sox bats. The wind is blowing in in New York at 10 mph from left. That could knock down a ball or two. If the roof is open in Houston not only will it be nice and humid, but there is a potent 15 mph breeze out to left. Good luck to those pitchers!
I got a little too far into a rabbit hole and somehow convinced myself that Homer Bailey was a good idea. Velazquez and Beeks were MUCH better options. If I would listen to myself more often, I would likely come out further ahead.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
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DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Justin Verlander ($10,500): The Twins are hitting just .179 in 162 at bats against Verlander, but they do have seven homers and 18 runs. The 46 strikeouts help, but these numbers aren’t quite as elite as I would prefer, especially when you have a wind blowing out. The saving grace here is that most of the Twins’ power is from the left side and the wind is blowing out to left.
Cole Hamels ($9,800): It’s awfully tempting to stack Dodgers against a lefty, isn’t it? This could be a day where it shouldn’t be. Hamels is 5-3 with a 1.61 ERA in 13 career starts in Wrigley Field. The current Dodgers are hitting a strong .271 off of Hamels in 59 at bats, but they one have one homer and three runs to go with 16 strikeouts. I don’t like the price, but it’s hard to ignore Hamels here.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,000): Rodriguez is racking up enough strikeouts to keep DFS players satisfied even if he does give up a few runs. Rodriguez has not pitched well overall this year, but his last two starts have been much better than his first two. Detroit has scored the fewest runs in the American League, so I expect a strong start from E-Rod here. They are a combined 7-28 with a homer and three runs but 11 strikeouts. The upside is enough to feel comfortable about Rodriguez tonight.
Middle Tier:
Jordan Lyles ($7,400): Dominant is the only way to describe Lyles right now. He is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. A middling Arizona offense probably isn’t going to get to him. They are hitting a solid .257 against Lyles with just two runs in 35 at bats with seven strikeouts. You are never going to get an elite strikeout total with Lyles, but he’ll record a hell of a lot of outs.
CC Sabathia ($7,200): Another lefty against the Angels. We’ve seen this movie before, and it’s the same ending every time. The current Angels are hitting a respectable .263 against CC, but they only have four homers and eight runs in 95 at bats with 18 strikeouts. Sabathia no longer has elite stuff, but take a look at the string of lefites that has locked down the Angels this year. Sabathia is better than middle of the pack there. He looks like an absolute steal for this price.
Bargain Pitchers:
Jason Vargas ($5,600): We love to hate Vargas here at Fantasy CPR. Even our resident Mets fan doesn’t like him. What’s to like? Vargas has been one of the worst starters in the majors so far this year. So why on earth would we use him in Philly? The current Phillies are only hitting .118 against him in a small sample size with three strikeouts and no runs. The problem is that Vargas has a 9.45 ERA in 6.2 innings at Citizens Bank Park. Do what you will with this information.
John Means ($5,200): Means has been the best Orioles starter this year, and it’s not even close. Means holds a 1.72 ERA in two starts and four relief appearances. He’s not going to go more than five innings. Hell, he may not even make it that far. If he does, it’s a free win. Chicago has a lot of right handed power, so there is risk involved here. Means hasn’t been susceptible to the long ball, giving up only two homers in 15.2 innings. I like the upside, especially when you consider it leverages all the Sox stackers.
My picks: Lyles, Sabathia; Hamels, Sabathia
New York Mets vs. Vince Velasquez:
Sure, the strikeout upside is there. Maybe. Velasquez has only fanned seven Mets in 38 at bats. Not bad, right? Well, the Mets are hitting .342 in those 38 at bats with three homers and 12 runs. TWELVE! Michael Conforto has all three homers and seven of the RBI, so he is a great play as a standalone or part of the stack. Amed Rosario has scored every time he’s been on base against Velasquez. Brandon Nimmo is perfect with a walk and a double. You can finish this off with a rejuvenated Toddfather, Cano, or Jeff McNeil. There is no wrong answer.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Ervin Santana:
Chris Davis has three homers and four RBI off of Ervin Santana, but is just 5-31(.161). The Orioles aren’t hitting righties well, and are struggling against Santana overall. However, Santana has allowed five homers in two starts. This is definitely the time to go after him. Jonathan Villar and Dwight Smith Jr. stand out with Davis if you can deal with the poor average. Trey Mancini is hitting everything. You can probably polish this off with either Renato Nunez or Rio Ruiz.
Houston Astros vs. Kohl Stewart:
I like the upside on Stewart, but it couldn’t really get any worse here for Stewart. The wind is blowing out and it’s humid. The balls are going to fly, and Stewart is going to get destroyed. Josh Reddick is getting hot, and this looks like the prime spot for him. I’m adding Bregman, Altuve, George Springer, and Michael Brantley here. Anyone in this lineup is in play if you find yourself strapped for cash.
New York Yankees vs. Felix Pena:
Yes, Pena has been good at home. Yes, it has been against three good offenses. Now the bad news: He has allowed three homers in 13.2 innings at home. Stacking the Yankees with all of the good offensive players hurt has been hit or miss, but the potential for homers is real. Gleyber Torres, Mike Tauchman, and Clint Frazier stand out as targets. I also want Brett Gardner leading off. And Luke Voit. All the Luke Voit!
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
Wow, I want to go after Vargas. Stacking against him is risky because he gets out of a lot of jams that he shouldn’t. Rhys Hoskins looks elite here. McCutchen and Maikel Franco are on my radar as well.
Merrill Kelly has hit a snag over the last couple of starts. This would look like a good place to use him against the Pirates, but I’m not sure it is. I think I would rather go after him since he’s struggling. Give me Gregory Polanco all day here. Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, and Elias Diaz look strong too.
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The Baltimore bullpen has been awful, so even if Means makes it out pretty much unscathed, this bullpen wont. Which also means it’s not wise to avoid the White Sox en masse. Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, and Tim Anderson are all excellent plays.
If I were brave, I would consider using Tyson Ross tonight, but I just can’t do it with the wind blowing out at Fenway. I’m not sure how much of the Boston offense I want either. Ross has a 3.38 ERA so far. Benintendi and Mitch Moreland are the obvious plays, but don’t shy away from J.D. either.
Nick Castellanos has the homer against Eduardo Rodriguez, but it is his only hit in 12 at bats.
There is a chance that Walker Buehler dominates the Cubs like he did the Reds. This game is at Wrigley though, and I’m not paying that princely sum to find out. I may even use guys like Schwarber and Jason Heyward against him just for leverage.
Justin Turner has the homer against Cole Hamels. You could try and get cute with David Freese here as well and Cody Bellinger hits lefties well enough. However, I’m not sure I want any exposure to this.
Whether you land on Justin Verlander or not, you want Jonathan Schoop in your lineup. Schoop is only 4-19(.211) against Verlander, but three of those hits are home runs and he has five RBI. Marwin Gonzalez, Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz, and C.J. Cron all have homers off of Verlander, but only Cruz is hitting above .200.
Big shock here, but Mike Trout has two homers against CC Sabathia. Pujols and Jonathan Lucroy have the others. Only Trout is hitting him well though. It’s Trout or nothing for the Angels as far as I’m concerned.
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