MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday, April 24 – Don’t be a Vargas!
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s MLB DFS was dominated by Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler who was not only the top raw point play on the board with 38.75 fantasy points but he did so as the clear chalk at over 40% in GPP’s which was twice as high as the next closest arms in Frankie Montas and Patrick Corbin. Throughout the day the buzz on Wheeler was strong and I saw the ownership being projected this high and I was simply not willing to eat that chalk – kudos to those of you who did, because Wheels was fantastic and the key cog in driving over the cash line on this night.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Breakdown:
Wednesday’s MLB action is split into two slates – 7 games each on FantasyDraft, which is ideal – although I will say, I am underwhelmed by the contest selection for the Early Slate on FantasyDraft. Considering the slates are split evenly with the same number of games, the early slate contests are significantly smaller and which much less variety than on the main slate which limits my interest in playing too heavily.
That being said, the early slate is interesting simply because we have some elite top-tier arms and another game in Coors Field which will force folks to choose which route they want to go. Blake Snell ($20.5K) is the premier pay at pitcher, the clear SP1 pitching at home with a 40.4% K rate and 19% swinging strike rate on the season and after seeing what James Paxton did to this Kansas City line-up over the weekend, Snell feels like a priority play for me.
Chris Paddack ($19.3K) has the high K metrics we typically covet in DFS but the reality is, he is also giving up a ton of hard contact, has failed to top 90 pitches in any start and has been held under 20 fantasy points in three straight starts. The talent on Paddack is there but you are paying a premium for him that requires him to go far deeper into games, which makes him feel over-priced in my opinion.
German Marquez ($17.7K) has every bit the K upside of a Paddack albeit with much more risk pitching in Coors Field, but depending on the Nationals line-up, this could be an ideal spot to play Marquez. Since the start of 2018, Marquez has a massive 33% K rate against right-handed batters with a 53% GB rate and in 2018 in Coors Field specifically, he had a 36% K rate against right-handed batters.
Why does this matter? Well outside of Adam Eaton and Juan Soto, this Nationals line-up is going to be quite right-handed heavy which makes Marquez an interesting GPP target solely because folks will be scared away by the high run totals and Coors Field mystique.
Speaking of splits, Jhoulys Chacin ($14K) will be facing a right-handed heavy Cardinals line-up that he already faced this season and put up 21 fantasy points with 7 K’s in 5+ innings of work. Chacin since the start of 2018 has a 10% higher K rate against RHB so the upside for Chacin at a lower price point is very real, however keep an eye on the weather as there is some in game rain risk.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
With a smaller slate, my guess is that the Coors Field focus will be high, specifically on the Rockies bats who can face off with Anibal Sanchez but I am likely to look elsewhere. Sanchez is certainly someone who could get knocked around but this is also a pitcher who has limited hitters to a sub 26% HC rate since the start of 2018 so it may make sense to avoid the chalk and hope Sanchez can limit the Rockies here today.
The one batter I would say to keep an eye on though is Daniel Murphy ($7.2K) is rejoined the team in Denver last night and although he did not suit up, there is a very real chance he could play here today and at this price point, there is just no reason to avoid him. Also, while I do respect Marquez, considering the way to attack him is with LHB, why on Earth is Juan Soto ($8.8K) priced so low in Coors? Even if you play Marquez, you could argue that you use Soto as a one-off.
Speaking of under-priced, Travis Shaw ($6.8K) is fresh off a two HR game on Tuesday and now has 3 HR’s in his last two games and tonight takes on RHP Adam Wainwright who is giving up a .379 ISO and 45% HC rate to LHB in 2019. Cash game lock and scary GPP fade.
With the focus on Coors, do not overlook the Oakland bats against RHP Kyle Dowdy, a Rule 5 pick who will be called upon to make a spot start here for Texas. The A’s jumped all over Lance Lynn on Tuesday, scoring 11 runs and will take on Dowdy who by all scouting reports is a fringe relief arm with average stuff – music to the ears of the Oakland hitters in one of the best hitting environments of the day.
The heart of the Oakland order is loaded with hitters who pummel RHP – with Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Kendrys Morales, Stephen Piscotty and Jurickson Profar all sporting .196+ ISO marks since the start of 2018 and all but Profar have a 43% or higher HC rate. Oakland’s run total of 5.1 is right there with Washington and just behind the Rockies on this slate and with so many under-priced bats (as noted), the Oakland stack is easy to fit in alongside Snell as your SP1.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a Plug and Play build.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
SP: Blake Snell
SP: Jhoulys Chacin
IF: Travis Shaw
IF: Kendrys Morales
IF: Matt Chapman
OF: Khris Davis
OF: Stephen Piscotty
OF: Christian Yelich
UTIL: Juan Soto
UTIL: Daniel Murphy
Slate Overview: The early slate has some obvious plays (Blake Snell and Travis Shaw) that become building blocks in both cash games and GPP’s. I think in looking at this slate, your SP2 and your non-Coors bats are where you are going to be different on this slate. Chacin is super line-up dependent but considering the Cardinals lack of LHB and the fact he has had success here already, if the weather holds than I think we can feel good about using him and his mid-range salary to load up on some big bats early on!
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
The 7 game main slate has far better contests today on FantasyDraft so if you intend to play one slate heavy, this looks like the one to go after.
Justin Verlander ($20.6K) is the Blake Snell of the Main Slate – the clear SP1, the top-tier high K arm that should anchor your cash game and GPP lineups. Verlander has a 31% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate this season with a 34% K rate since the start of 2018 which puts him as the top dog on either slate from a pure K upside perspective. With back to back starts of 30+ fantasy points, JV comes into this game in top form and with some great value already, I see no reason to get cute and fade him here.
Our pitching primer writer Thunder Dan, has been beating the “Lefties Against the Angels” drum since the start of the year and with C.C. Sabathia ($14.4K) on the hill tonight, I think we can go right back to that spot.
Sabathia has pitched exceptionally well in his first two starts of 2019, going 5 innings against KC and the White Sox, striking out 8 batters with 0 ER on his way 17 and 21 fantasy points in those games. Fellow Yankee lefty, J.A. Happ just showed you the kind of success lefties can have against this Angels lineup with 7 innings, 5 K’s and 18 fantasy points and considering the price discount on CC here, he makes for the ideal SP2 pairing with Verlander that will allow you to spend up for bats.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Bats:
After watching Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler mow down the injured Phillies line-up the last two days, I bet you cannot wait to take a Mets pitcher for a third straight day. Oh, wait, it is Jason Vargas day and unless you want to roll out this doofus (pictured above) and burn your bankroll, I suggest you instead look to load up on the Phillies bats.
Vargas has a walk rate that is higher than his K rate, he is giving up a 70% HC rate and is just generally, by all metrics, not a good pitcher and while he trolled us last time against the Cardinals, I refuse to believe this Jon Lester impostor can do it again!
Rhys Hoskins ($9.3K), Maikel Franco ($8.5K), J.T. Realmuto ($8K), Andrew McCutchen ($9.4K) and Bryce Harper ($8.6K) are all priced incredibly reasonably considering the opponent and while the bottom of the Phillies order is weak right now, this 1-5 stack is loaded with power and I want in. Vargas is throwing his sinker over 40% of the time to right-handed batters, and every single one of the RHB noted above has a .225+ ISO mark and 40% or higher HC rate.
Vargas could have Frank Drebin from Naked Gun behind the plate and I would still side with the bats here. The Phillies stack is far too cheap for the damage they could do against Vargas today and they will be my core build around Verlander and CC.
You could actually look for a full game stack in this one with the left-handed Mets line-up against RHP Vincent Velasquez who since 2018 has given up a .232 ISO mark to LHB as a fly ball pitcher. Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil make for an interesting four man stack that you can wrap around a Phillies stack on this slate.
It is not often the Baltimore Orioles (5.3 IRT) have the highest run total on the slate, but so is life with Ervin Santana on the mound and as our Joe Metz broke down today in his Stacks Article, this Orioles team makes for an ideal GPP stack. I say this every day, but how in the world is Chris Davis ($5.8K) still so cheap – after an HR yesterday, just keep plugging him in and taking the free square.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup – Main Slate:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a Plug and Play build.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
SP: Justin Verlander
SP: CC Sabathia
IF: Chris Davis
IF: Robinson Cano
IF: Rhys Hoskins
OF: Bryce Harper
OF: Andrew McCutchen
OF: Brandon Nimmo
UTIL: JT Realmuto
UTIL: Maikel Franco
Slate Overview: The Main Slate looks really cut and dry with JV as the SP1 building block and with gas cans like Vargas and Ervin Santana on the mound, there is no shortage of cost effective offenses to build around.
The White Sox and Astros are really the only pricey stacks on this slate, but I would argue the Phillies have just as much GPP appeal and hopefully the performances of Matz and Wheeler the last two nights keep the stink of Vargas who burned many last time he was on the mound. Not tonight old friend.
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