DraftKings MLB Picks April 25: Tanaka: Left coast warrior

PITTSBURGH, PA – AUGUST 17: Fans arrive as rain delays the start of the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park on August 17, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) DraftKings MLB /

DraftKings MLB Picks April 25: Tanaka: Left coast warrior

The DraftKings MLB slates are chopped up a bit today. There are only two early games, and one of those is threatened by rain. The Reds again thumb their nose at MLB start times, and DraftKings punishes them by exiling them to the showdown/all day slates. There is a good chance that game gets completely washed out anyway. That leaves five games for the DraftKings MLB main slate.

DraftKings MLB Early Slate Options:

The early DraftKings MLB slate is a mess. Not only is it just two games, but there is a good chance of rain in Pittsburgh. There is a good chance this whole thing gets rained out, or at the very least chopped up. The bad news about that is that both of the good early pitchers are in this game.

Both Zack Greinke and Jameson Taillon have good histories against their opponent today, and I would pay up for both of them if it weren’t for the rain threat. I would still do it in a cheap GPP, but if playing cash or for an amount that would hurt if you lost, I think you have to pass on both of them unless the forecast clears up. We will know more of what it will look like by tomorrow morning, but right now, it could be a mess that could cancel the entire early slate, or worse yet, an in game delay that truncates the pitchers’ starts.

I think we can freely move off of one of them by using Ross Stripling against the Cubs. The Cubs are hitting .281 against him in 57 at bats, but only have two homers and four runs to go with 14 strikeouts. There is no way I would use Jon Lester against the Dodgers in his first game back. You have to take a shot with one of the pitchers from the other game. Greinke is worth the price increase, but Taillon will pitch the tops of innings, which gives him a better chance of longevity if there is an in game delay.

There isn’t much to like about the hitters today, especially with three good pitchers on the slate. Only eight total homers have been hit off of today’s starters by their opponents. Gregory Polanco has the one against Greinke. If he’s in the lineup, go for it. David Peralta has the one against Taillon. Both Javy Baez and Kyle Schwarber have taken Stripling deep. It’s the Dodgers stack that gets interesting.

Kike Hernandez has two homers and six RBI against Lester, so build with him. Cody Bellinger and A.J. Pollock have the other homers. I like Pollock and Hernandez a lot for the price, but it’s going to be hard to swing Bellinger without having to use Lester.

The obvious place for value is at catcher, and I’m all over Elias Diaz as he should be in the lineup today. David Freese with Jon Lester on the mound is also a great idea to save money. I do like both Adam Frazier and Ben Zobrist if they are leading off for their prices if you aren’t willing to pay up for Kike. Of course, you can still grab the value at first and second and use both Bellinger and Kike in the outfield.

Cole Tucker is still the golden child for value at SS, even with Greinke on the mound. You could also throw Chris Taylor at the lefty Lester since he will likely start again and is dirt cheap. Believe it or not, you can still put together a strong lineup and take two good pitchers.

My picks: Taillon, Stripling, Pirates value, Dodgers stack

CLEVELAND, OHIO – APRIL 04: Starting pitcher Trevor Bauer #47 of the Cleveland Indians pitches during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Progressive Field on April 04, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Main Slate Pitching Options

Top Tier:

Gerrit Cole ($10,200): I understand the price on Cole. His career numbers against Cleveland just confirm why it is where it is. The Indians are only hitting .167 in 48 at bats, but they do have a homer and nine runs. The 15 strikeouts is solid, but faced with all this info, I’m pocketing the $400 and using Bauer. Cole was thumped by Texas in his last outing. His season ERA sits at 5.22. Sure, he has 44 strikeouts in just 29.2 innings, but he’s giving away a lot of free points with that ERA.

Trevor Bauer ($9,800): Yes, I realize that it’s the Astros, but I can assure you that I’ve done my homework. The Astros are hitting a respectable .245 against Bauer in 102 at bats with seven homers and 11 runs. Pretty average numbers. What puts Bauer over the top is the 35 strikeouts. Add in Bauer’s strong start to 2019, and I can get on board with using him here. Honestly, there is risk involved with all of the pitchers tonight despite some bigger names. Bauer’s strikeout upside is the best you can do. Just take the slight discount for playing the Astros and roll with it.

Middle Tier:

Masahiro Tanaka ($9,300): Tanaka’s career numbers against the Angels aren’t great, and his road numbers are worse than the home splits. That would seem as though the Angels have the advantage, right? Wrong. Tanaka loves most of the left coast, in particular the Big A. Tanaka is 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA in three career starts there. Considering how painfully average the Angels lineup is, forget the past stats here. Tanaka is bordering an elite option tonight.

Aaron Nola ($9,100): Nola’s numbers against the Marlins aren’t great, and he has had a rough first month of the season. That said, Nola’s talent level is far above this price, and the Marlins still aren’t a great hitting team. They are hitting .290 in 69 at bats against Nola, but only have one homer. I like Nola’s chances for a strong start here.

Bargain Pitchers:

Marco Gonzales ($8,400): Gonzales has survived some good offenses this year. He will have to do so again with Texas coming to town. The Rangers have actually hit Gonzales pretty well, but I don’t have any issues playing Gonzales anytime he’s on the mound at T-Mobile Park. Gonzalez is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 21 career starts in Seattle. I’ll take those odds, especially since there is no cheap pitching available.

Caleb Smith ($7,300): There is a fair amount of risk associated with Smith here. However, the current Phillies are just 4-21 against him with six strikeouts. Smith has been outstanding this year, and the strikeout potential is enough to keep me interested, even in a hitter’s park. There’s very little for value plays. Smith has by far the most potential.

My picks: Bauer, Tanaka; Bauer, Smith

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 03: Gordon Beckham #29 of the Detroit Tigers his a solo home run in the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on April 03, 2019 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB daily notes:

Just because most Phillies have struggled against Smith doesn’t mean that all of them have. Andrew McCutchen is 3-7 with the homer and two RBI. Maikel Franco has the other two RBI. I don’t know that I want a lot of exposure here though unless you are playing Phillies for the last three innings against the Marlins pen.

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The Marlins are really cheap and have good career numbers against Nola. This is a great place to value hunt on a slate where you’re going to need it. Neil Walker have the only homer and three RBI against Nola. Martin Prado is 7-18, and will only set you back $2,900. Brian Anderson is just $3,400 and it 5-14 against Nola. They don’t have much for counting stats, but if they get you around ten points, you’re way ahead of the game and you blew very little of your bankroll to get there.

You can stack the entire Boston/Detroit game. The Red Sox are hitting .413 with four homers and 12 runs in just 46 at bats against Jordan Zimmerman. Rick Porcello’s former teammates are hitting .408 against him in 49 at bats with two homers and eight runs. Steve Pearce has a pair of homers against Zimmerman, so if he’s in there, he’s worth a look. Mookie Betts and Moreland have the other homers. Sandy Leon and Bogaerts are hitting .400 or better. Castellanos and Gordon Beckham have the homers against Porcello. In fact, this is all in on Gordon Beckham night. He is 15-32(.469) with a homer and six RBI against Porcello.

It’s possible that Bauer escapes Houston unscathed, but that’s a big ask. Both Robinson Chirinos and Josh Reddick have homered twice off of Bauer, and they come at a big discount. Correa and Yuli Gurriel have also taken Bauer deep and are fairly discounted tonight as well. None of these are bad one off plays, but I wouldn’t stack here. Not with the way Bauer is pitching.

I almost want to chase after Cole with Cleveland bats after what Texas did to them last week. That’s a risky play, but I do want at least a little exposure. All the bats are in play at a discounted price. Jose Ramirez has the only homer so far, but Jason Kipnis and Lindor look good here too.

The Angels hit righties just fine, and Tanaka has worse road numbers over the course of his career for some reason. That’s one reason to go after him. That’s the only reason to go after him, really. Simmons and Kole Calhoun have the homers. That’s about all the exposure I want. Mike Trout is 4-13, but all of the hits are singles. There’s no hard contact.

The Yankees stacks haven’t really been working lately, but Trevor Cahill is just not a good pitcher right now. The Yankees are hitting .250 with two homers and six runs in only 36 at bats. That fits nicely with Cahill’s 5.47 ERA this year and eight homers allowed in just 26.1 innings. The Yankees are getting a homer or three here. The challenge is guessing who hits them. I want all of Gary Sanchez here. Mike Tauchman, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres look really good too.

This really is a dream spot for the Seattle righties. Taylor Hearn had a 4.05 ERA at AAA so far this year. Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana, Ryon Healy, Edwin Encarnacion, and Tim Beckham are going to make him wish he was back in AAA. This will not end well, unless you’re a Seattle fan or you played their stack.

You may not need to go after Marco Gonzales with Texas righties. Joey Gallo has both homers off of him and is 4-10 against him lifetime. Hunter Pence has the best exit velocity of the slate at a staggering 103.6 mph against Gonzales, but a negative launch angle. What does that mean, exactly? Really hard contact, but on the ground. Chase that if you want.

Next. MLB DFS Picks and Pivots - Thursday, April 25. dark

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