Good day from MLB Bets.
The Yankees win put MLB Bets as a small winner on the day. The day wasn’t a total loss. Any day you can come out ahead is a good day!
Using 1 unit as the base and allowing for lay and take, the system is now up 21.13 units on the season. Thursday has some interesting games – let’s take a look. Lines given are the ones taken at certain Vegas books. The Arizona line for example was taken at Westgate, and is the best line found at this overnight writing.
All plays are valid regardless of pitching changes. All times Eastern.
Arizona (+1.15) levels Pittsburgh, 12:35 pm
Arizona flat-out loves it in Pittsburgh. They swept a 4 game series there last year and now they are 2-0 in this series. In fact after last nights win they have now won the last 9 games in a row in Pittsburgh.
Zack Greinke makes the start for Arizona posting a 2.29 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Diamondbacks are 3-0 in those games.
Jameson Taillon has performed almost as well with a 2.77 ERA in his last 3 starts. MLB Bets says good, but not good enough.
Interestingly enough Arizona is 7-0 in road games against a team with a winning record. Conversely, Pittsburgh is 1-7 at home against a team with a winning record.
Sometimes for whatever reason a team simply has the other teams number, and mentally it can become a self-fulfilling prophesy to continue that trend. Especially with the mound advantage seen today, there is no reason to backtrack from the way these 2 teams are playing each-other.
Yesterday the pitching edge rested with the Pirates yet the trend overwhelmed this advantage and Arizona still won. Let’s continue with this bias and stay on the Diamondbacks.
MLB Bets had a late play posted on twitter predicting a win for them yesterday. Go Zona!
MLB Bets – Thursday April 25
Cubs (line not yet posted) continue the Dodgers woes, 2:20 pm
The Cubs have not selected their pitcher as of this overnight writing. MLB Bets wants to play Chicago anyway.
Ross Stripling has a pretty good ERA of 3.57 last 3 starts but he pitches decidedly better at home. Chicago has been the hottest team in baseball winning 7of 8, while the Dodgers are now losers of 3 out of 4.
For teams of average quality or above, baseball can be a streaky game and the Cubs have seen that in evidence both ways in this young season. Especially with the Cubs and the personalities they have on their team, it can be all or nothing at times.
Jake Arrieta had harsh comments that were perceived to be against Bryce Harper but actually were subtly directed against his manager Joe Maddon. He referred to Harper twice but outright said the team was not ready to play many times in that interview.
Maddon came out and took the blame on his shoulders for all of it cementing the players together. Until the next losing streak starts, the Cubs side is the way to lean and can only be interrupted if the pitching match-up is stacked against Chicago.
That will not be the case today. No matter who the Cubs end up sending to the mound, Stripling can be hit on the road.
Miami (+1.70) one-ups Philadelphia, 7:05 pm
The Marlins recently have been trading wins and losses at big dog prices which is a winner and gets noticed by MLB Bets. Tonight they have their best pitcher going at odds of +1.70.
Caleb Smith has been terrific considering Miami has scored the fewest runs in baseball. He has yet to be charged with a loss in 4 starts even though the Marlins already have 17 losses.
Aaron Nola takes the hill for the Phillies. He has been stung badly in his 2 most recent home starts and in no way deserves to be nearly a 2-1 favorite. Philadelphia as a team had lost 3 in a row going into last nights action and had lost 6 of their last 10.
Since Smith is so dominant and the Miami bullpen can at times be exploited, MLB Bets wants to split this wager equally between the 1st 5 innings taking the 1/2 a run and the game itself. This will be shown in the recap.
MLB Bets – Thursday April 25
Detroit (+1.70) outplays Boston, 7:10 pm
The Tigers have played right with Boston and taking these odds has been a winning strategy. The pitchers starting today have high ERA’s making this game a coin flip.
Jordan Zimmermann goes for the Tigers and has been pounded in his last 3 starts. He does have the potential for a good game because in his first 2 starts this season, at Toronto and at New York, he tossed a combined 14 innings allowing only 1 earned run.
Rick Porcello for Boston in his lone home start against lowly Baltimore allowed 3 runs in 4 innings while striking out 2 and walking 5 batters. This game is shaping up to be which pitcher can perform better in a hitters setting.
The system almost always fades prohibitive favorites when the results are likely to be random. Let’s take the big odds on Detroit.
Yankees (-1.18) too much for the Angels, 9:07 pm
Heading into last nights late game, LAA has lost 8/9 while New York has won 7/8. Even with the slew of injuries the Yankees have endured they have remained competitive. Tonight the pitching match-up gives no relief to Los Angeles. The Yankees are sending out their ace.
Masahiro Tanaka has started 5 times for the Yankees, hurling 4 great games including his lone road start with only 1 bad outing, ironically against the White Sox. Trevor Cahill for LAA has been bombed last times out both at home and away .
Anything can happen, of course, but this just doesn’t shape up well for the Angels. MLB Bets is laying the small juice with New York.
MLB Bets – Thursday April 25
Texas (+1.55) can play with Seattle, 10:10 pm
The Rangers and Mariners have both gone into a mini slump. Home field has not been the cure for Seattle this season.
While the Rangers away record is not good to say the least, Seattle has not been a force at home either. Hard to believe, but Seattle is recently 0-6 at home, 5 of them against right handers. They are recently 0-8 when playing a team with a winning record.
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Once again the overall theme is the same – If the game looks like a toss-up and you can get +1.40 or better, take the value play on the dog. Here is another case in point.
At first glance, just looking at fast facts for example and seeing Texas pitcher Adrian Sampson with his very high ERA, one could assume the pitching edge lies with the Mariners. That would be wrong.
The ERA posted is only his starts. He has pitched 3 times in relief, including a 6 inning relief appearance against Houston where he allowed only 1 run.
Marco Gonzales for Seattle has been solid although trending slightly more negative the deeper into the season. All in all either pitcher could have a great game. MLB Bets is taking Texas for value.
MLB Bets Recap For April 25th:
Cubs no line yet
For the most part, the big dogs have split wins and losses making us money taking the high odds. Let’s see what happens today.