Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: Friday April 26, 2019

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: April 26th

Tonight’s Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks slate features 15 games with, Minnesota (5.6), Atlanta (5.1), Seattle (5.1), and Philadelphia (4.9) , holding the best projected team totals. With a handful of high priced pitchers available, finding value will be imperative for success.

We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, and line movement.

MLB DFS Standouts Picks: Batted Ball Stats

Kendrys Morales – DK $3200, FD $2200

Kendrys Morales is in a prime, “buy low” spot tonight against his former team, Toronto. Not only will he benefit from facing a righty, which he has much better splits against, but his price is significantly reduced. Morales hasn’t had a ton of fantasy production of late, but his batted ball stats would indicate that positive regression could be on its way. In the last 15 days, Morales batted ball distance is up 16 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 5%, and his exit velocity is up 1 MPH, over his yearly average. Now, while these aren’t groundbreaking increases, given the context of his price drop, he should be considered. Morales was priced as high as $4300 in early April, and is only $3200 on DraftKings tonight.

Miguel Cabrera – DK $3600, FD $2700

Miguel Cabrera, on the other hand, hasn’t seen as significant of a price drop, but his batted ball numbers are much better than his production would indicate. In the last 15 days, his distance is up 33 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 15%, and his exit velocity is up 2 MPH, over his yearly average. While he’s had a disappointing start, he may be worth considering tonight.

Batter Splits

Jeimer Candelario – DK $3600, FD $2800

Jeimer Candelario will draw an enticing matchup tonight, as he faced the lefty, Carlos Rodon. Candelario is much better when facing a left-handed pitcher, holding a .359 wOBA split (.087 better than when facing a righty) and a .206 ISO split (.092 better than when facing a righty). He’s fairly affordable on both sites and should offer value as long as he’s leading off.

Line Movement

I don’t intentionally mean to repeatedly harp on Tigers players, but there may be good reason to tonight, considering the line movement. Chicago opened as -145 favorites, but have since dropped to just, -127. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has also moved significantly since opening. The game total opened at 8.5 (with a heavily juiced, -125 under, or 8 in some shops) but has since risen to 9.

Yet again, the weather may be playing a vital role in this movement. As of this afternoon, winds are expected to be blowing roughly 14 MPH, out to right-center field. Just like last Friday, both of these pitchers won’t be all that excited with this weather forecast, as they struggle to produce ground balls. Norris has a flyball rate of 44%, the highest out of the 30 pitchers on the slate. Rodon has a flyball rate of 42%, the 6th highest on the slate. I would not be surprised if we see this game go over the total.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis each and every day!