Fansided

MLB Bets – Friday April 26th – The Dog Days Of April

By John Fazio

FanDuel MLB: BALTIMORE, MD - May 15: The field at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is shown during a rain delay of the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies game on May 15, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
FanDuel MLB: BALTIMORE, MD - May 15: The field at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is shown during a rain delay of the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies game on May 15, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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MLB Bets likes San Diego
MLB Bets likes San Diego /

Good day from MLB Bets.  This Friday presents a new opportunity to find value in the odds and work our way back higher.

Yesterday, Thursday, the Yankee collapse sent MLB Bets to just over a unit loser.  Using 1 unit as a base and allowing for lay and take, the system is now up exactly 20.00 units on the season.  It’s never fun losing  – so here we go for today.

All plays are valid regardless of pitching changes.  All times Eastern.

MLB Bets – Friday April 26th

San Diego  (+1.75)  tops Washington, 7:05 pm
There is not 1 stat to support the Nationals being this big of a favorite.  Maybe they shouldn’t be a favorite at all.

San Diego is 7-3 on the road, Washington 5-6 at home.
San Diego overall is 14-11, Washington is 11-12
San Diego has won 3 in a row, Washington lost their last game
Matt Strahm  ERA last 3 starts is 1.00
Max Scherzer ERA last 3 starts is 5.95

Only public perception is allowing this line to be so high.  The thought of Mad Max finally pitching up to his potential has a whopping 69% of the overnight bets coming in on the Nats.

MLB Bets is more concerned with current form than potential achievement.  The system believes the value is in taking the big plus money on the Padres.

Tampa Bay  (+1.33)  bumps off Boston, 7:10 pm
Boston is favored because they knocked around Charlie Morton in Tampa.  No two games are alike.

Should the Sox be favored?  Here we go with the comparisons:

Tampa is 7-2 on the road, Boston is 4-5 at home
Tampa is 16-9 overall, Boston is 10-15
Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games
Charlie Morton has 4 of 5 quality starts, David Price 2 of 4

Currently 65% of the wagers placed are on Boston; the feeling being Price has turned the corner since his last 2 starts have been good, especially the one at home against Baltimore.  Game 1 will be a good indication of how this series will play out.  Today, MLB Bets likes Tampa.

DraftKings MLB
MLB Bets likes Milwaukee /

MLB Bets – Friday April 26th

Milwaukee  (+1.65)  thrashes the Mets, 7:10 pm
With apologies to the loyal Mets fans at fantasycpr, MLB Bets believes this line is too high.  Apparently however the betting public disagrees.

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Both teams have similar records.  Milwaukee has lost 7 of their last 10 looking bad at St Louis, but the Mets are only 4-6 in their last 10.  This will probably come down to the starting pitchers where once again the Mets do not have the advantage.

Chase Anderson takes the hill for Milwaukee.  His record is 2-0 but he only has 1 start, his latest appearance where he was very good against the Dodgers.

Jacob deGrom takes the ball for the Mets.  His first 2 starts of the season were great but the last 2 were weak.  The system believes this game should be much closer to a pick, although the line has moved up from the opener and an equal number of wagers have come in on both teams.

However the value here is on the dog.  Surprisingly, New York is 6-16 in deGroms last 22 home starts.  However the perception is different, and the way the public feels about a game will be where the oddsmaker sets the line.

I remember so clearly in 1987 when Miami played Penn St at the Fiesta Bowl.  I was “in the know” then, and the linesmakers opened Miami a 6 1/2 point favorite.  They thought 6 1/2 would carry an equal number of bets on the favorite and the dog, and they were right.

But I know the insiders really thought Penn St was going to win.  And they were right again, as Penn St won 14-10.

My point is the line you see does not necessarily reflect what the oddsmaker thinks of the outcome of a game, but rather where they believe they can receive an equal amount of betting wagers.

MLB Bets Recap For Friday April 26:

San Diego   +1.75
Tampa Bay   +1.33
Milwaukee   +1.65

Next. MLB DFS stacks April 26. dark

Best of luck and success from MLB Bets

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