NBA DFS: Playoff Preview – Bucks vs. Celtics

NBA DFS: Playoff Series Preview

Hello everyone and welcome back to my second installment of playoff series previews for round two of the NBA playoffs. My focus for these breakdowns will be mainly for DFS purposes as I try to give you some helpful info for making those NBA DFS lineups over the course of the next few weeks.

Instead of analyzing each slate as they come out, I’d rather take a look at both teams now, how they match up, which players are trending up or down, and then use that information when it comes time to make a lineup.

I’m really excited for these Eastern Conference semi-finals. The first round was predictable, but I think all four of these teams have a great chance of moving on to the Conference finals and both of these series give us some really compelling matchups.  For years the East was known as the weaker of the two conferences and LeBron’s teams (Cavs and Heat) ended up in the finals year after year. We will have a new Eastern Conference champ for the first time in four years and each of these teams has shown they may have what it takes to beat the Warriors (or another Western Conference team?) in the NBA Finals.

Game 1 between the Bucks and Celtics is set for Sunday at 1:00. The Bucks won their first playoff series in 17 years and won 60 games this season, the best record in the Eastern Conference. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a legit MVP candidate and they added a number of nice role players this year through trades both before and during the season.

Meanwhile, the Celtics are finally healthy for the first time in two years and will have their entire squad available for this series. Kyrie Irving is the team’s superstar, but it’s been the improved play of Gordon Hayward off the bench that has made this team really tough down the stretch.

This series preview is going to take a quick look at how both teams fared in their round 1 series, how their rotations have tightened, and how they’re performed against each other in their regular season matchups.

NBA DFS: Bucks vs. Celtics

The Celtics swept the Pacers 4-0 in the first round, holding Indiana to only 91.7 points per game in that series. They didn’t blow Indiana out in any of the games, but it certainly felt like they had control of every game and that this series was never in question.

Meanwhile, the Bucks made quick work of the outmanned Detroit Pistons in a four-game sweep, too.  Detroit’s Blake Griffin was hobbled for much of the series but I don’t think it would have mattered all that much. Milwaukee was the superior team in every way and dominated the Pistons from start to finish. They scored 119 points or more in each game.

Some series stats from notable Celtics…

Kyrie Irving: 22-4-8 on 19 shot attempts per game.

Jayson Tatum: 19-5.5-1.5 on 51% shooting

Gordon Hayward: 12-5-2

Al Horford: 11-10-4.5

Marcus Morris: 12-6-1

The Celtics are always a tough team when it comes to DFS because of how balanced they can be. After Kyrie, it’s anyone’s guess as to who the second leading scorer is going to be on any given night.

Some series stats from notable Bucks…

Giannis Antetokounmpo: 26-12-3 (in only 28 minutes/game!)

Brook Lopez: 12-5-2 with 3.5 blocks

Khris Middleton: 19-5-4

Eric Bledsoe: 19-4-5 with 2 steals

Some of these numbers could have been higher, but the core four of the Bucks sat for much of the fourth quarters in blowouts.

NBA DFS: Bucks vs. Celtics

When targeting players for DFS lineups we obviously want to lock in as many guys with guaranteed minutes as possible. It’s tough to find reliable value plays as teams often shorten their rotations and role players may get fewer shots as star players take on more of the scoring burden themselves.

The Celtics rotation was tightened down to 9 players in most games, with Aaron Baynes entering the starting five and Marcus Morris coming off the bench. Irving, Horford, Hayward, Tatum, and Morris are the five Celtics who got the most minutes are likely the group that I see the Celtics using to finish close games in this series. Terry Rozier (19 min/game) is the main reserve guard for the Celtics and the only other player to see minutes was backup big man Daniel Theis (7 min/game).

The Bucks rotation should tighten up a bit this series. It’s hard to read too much into their rotations from the Detroit series because they blew the Pistons out in most of those games. Sterling Brown is the starter to avoid as he plays the fewest minutes and is basically a glue guy out there around Giannis, Bledsoe, Middleton, and Lopez. The bench unit consists of George Hill, Nikola Mirotic, Pat Connaughton, and Ersan Ilyasova. I wouldn’t expect Milwaukee to go deeper than these 9 players unless the game gets out of hand either way.

NBA DFS: Bucks vs. Celtics

These two teams met three times this season with the Celtics winning two out of three. All three games were very competitive and I expect the games in this series to stay close throughout. I just don’t see either team having the firepower to pull away from the other, but anything can happen on any given night in the NBA.

Here are some of the stars and their stat lines from the season series.

Giannis Antetokounmpo: 31-10-4 with 3 blocks/steals

Khris Middleton: 17-8-4

Kyrie Irving: 21-4-6 on 38% shooting.

Al Horford: 19-11-6.5 with 5 steals/blocks!

Gordon Hayward (2 games): 14-3.5-2.5

The Bucks are without their steady combo guard Malcolm Brogdon so we should see Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton continue to take on more of the scoring and passing burden that he left with his departure from the rotation. Giannis is matchup proof at this point and I think it would be wise to use him on every slate that he’s on for the remainder of the playoffs.

Kyrie’s shooting percentage and stats certainly don’t jump off the page as an elite play, but he’s always in play with his volume shooting and we know he can break a slate on any given night if he gets hot because he just keeps shooting until he misses.

The real eye-opener here is Al Horford who posted some massive stats against Milwaukee this season. He’s an underrated player in real life and fantasy and a guy that I will be targeting in this matchup at the center position.

NBA DFS: Final Thoughts

This shapes up to be a really competitive series, with the winner likely to be the favorite in the Eastern Conference Finals. I predict we see some low scoring games in this series based on how slow the Celtics like to play and how both of these teams are pretty solid defensively. The obvious pairing of superstars Kyrie and Giannis for game stacks is attractive and figuring out which role players will exceed their salary cap based expectations is going to be crucial.

The top plays for me from these games are Giannis, Kyrie, Horford, and Middleton. I think both teams rely heavily on their star playmakers and I am a firm believer that Middleton and Horford are two of the most underrated players in the game.

Some of my favorite value plays include Pat Connaughton and Ersan Ilyasova for Milwaukee and Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris, and Gordon Hayward for the Celtics.

Game 1 might be the only playoff game on Sunday if the Warriors can close out the Clippers tonight, so playing a showdown slate might be good practice here in anticipation for when we get the Bucks-Celtics on a two-game slate.

Thanks for reading my breakdown of this playoff series! If you like these breakdowns let me know and I can try to continue them for each of the Western Conference series, too! Make sure you check back for more great DFS content at FantasyCPR!