Early DraftKings MLB Picks April 27: Strasburg or Berrios?

We have an even split for our DraftKings MLB tournaments on Saturday. The Phillies-Marlins tilt is the only one with a weird start time, so that’s only on the showdown and all day slates. This will focus on the seven early games

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Stephen Strasburg ($10,500): Strasburg has held the Padres to a .219 average in 32 at bats with only two extra base hits and two runs with 11 strikeouts. If you don’t want to rely on the splits from Berrios, Strasburg is the guy to go after. Strasburg’s right/left and home/road splits are nearly identical. Strasburg is also 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA in his career against the Padres. He should be worth this lofty price tag this afternoon.

Jose Berrios ($10,000): Berrios was not sharp the first time he faced the Orioles. He gave up three homers in six innings. Berrios still picked up the win, but it was not a five figure performance. I’ll go back to the well here since Berrios has been much better at home this year and throughout his career. In two home starts this year, Berrios has 17 strikeouts in 14.1 innings and has only given up two runs. I expect a Baltimore regression to the norm here.

Middle Tier:

J.A. Happ ($9,200): The Giants are hitting a robust .300 against Happ, but they only have two homers and seven runs in 80 at bats. The 15 strikeouts do leave something to be desired, but this Giants offense is worth attacking with just about any pitcher right now. The Giants are actually hitting lefties better, but a .226 average doesn’t chase me, especially when they are hitting just .198 at home this season. Paxton didn’t have great numbers against the Giants either but he handled them last night. Expect more of the same today.

David Price ($9,000): Price has been solid this year, but not dominant like many hoped he would be. Using him against the Rays is risky with the way that offense is going. However, Price takes away the wind aid with his gaudy platoon splits. You know what else is gaudy? Price’s career numbers at Fenway. Price is 27-7 with a 3.01 ERA in 52 appearances (49 starts) at Fenway. On top of that, Price has a 3.28 ERA against his former team in 15 starts. He looks safe, although not dominant, today.

Shane Bieber ($8,100): It’s risky using a pitcher against the Astros in Houston, especially when said pitcher was throttled by the Braves in his last start. However, there is value to be had with Bieber. His price plummeted. Bieber still has 25 strikeouts in 23.2 innings this year. What really has me leaning towards Bieber are his splits. Bieber’s ERA is a full three runs lower on the road in his career. On top of that, Bieber has never lost a road start in 14 tries (9-0). At worst I think he gives us a quality start with a half dozen strikeouts. I’ll take that for the price

Bargain Pitchers:

Aaron Sanchez ($6,800): Sanchez pitched well against Oakland in his last start. The bad news is that start was truncated by a broken fingernail. The nail appears to be okay, but this is something to keep an eye on. Sanchez has had finger issues in the past. Prior to that start, Sanchez had pitched well against everyone but the Twins. I don’t usually target pitchers against Oakland, but this price feels low for Sanchez. Even if he only goes five strong, he’s still giving us good return.

Dakota Hudson ($6,100): Come on, having Hudson cheaper than Straily is just silly. I’ll take it though. Through his brief career, Hudson has severe home and road splits. Hudson has a 1.13 ERA in 24 innings at Busch Stadium. He has a 7.06 ERA in 21.2 innings on the road. The Reds have some power and may get into one here, but I could see Hudson coming through with a quality start on the cheap. I really like him as a punt since Hudson is really the only one out there at pitcher for the afternoon slate.

My picks: Berrios, Bieber; Strasburg, Hudson

DraftKings MLB stack options

Minnesota Twins vs. Dan Straily:

It’s Twins stack day again! The Twins haven’t roughed up Straily as bad as Cobb, but they still have five homers off of him in just 46 at bats. Eddie Rosario has two of those and a double in his only three at bats against Straily. C.J. Cron, Willians Astudillo, and Nelson Cruz have all homered off of Straily as well. This wont be a cheap stack today, especially if you add Polanco, but it could pay off the same way it did last night and the first time they faced Straily this year.

Cleveland Indians vs. Brad Peacock:

Peacock has not been good at home this year. Both the Twins and A’s got to him in Houston. I would say that Cleveland’s offense at full strength is better than either of those. Light hitters Greg Allen and Leonys Martin have the homers off of Peacock so far. I would throw Martin out there again. Lindor and Jason Kipnis look solid too. If you go after him with a righty, just be aware that Peacock has really pronounced career splits. Righties are hitting .198 in 900 at bats. Lefties are hitting .263 in 916 at bats. Chase Peacock with lefties. That means Carlos Gonzalez could be pretty sneaky here.

New York Yankees vs. Derek Holland:

The Yankees are hitting .480 against Holland in 25 at bats, and that’s even with all of the good ones besides Gary Sanchez hurt. Holland has been solid this year, and Yankees stacks haven’t always worked, but this looks like a good place to chase anyway. DJ LeMahieu has the homer against Holland. Cameron Maybin is a perfect 5-5 against Holland, so he could shine for the Yankees again. Gleyber Torres and Mike Tauchman look good as well, and Brett Gardner hits lefties well enough to consider if he’s still in the leadoff slot.

Washington Nationals vs. Eric Lauer:

Lauer pitched well against the Nationals last year, but this is a different year. Lauer has struggled so far in 2019. Anthony Rendon is back, so anchor with him. Juan Soto hits everyone, so I have no issues using him against a lefty. I doubt Carter Kieboom goes long in his first two games, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he came up with another hit or two. For just $3,700, he’s still worth using. Victor Robles looks nice near the top of the order as well.

Boston Red Sox vs. Charlie Morton:

Morton has been good enough this year that a stack against him could come up a little short, and he has won both of his career starts at Fenway. However, the Red Sox are hitting .301 with four homers and 13 runs in just 93 at bats against Morton. Benintendi has smoked Morton, going 4-11 with two homers and five RBI. Moreland and Bogaerts have the other homers. And are you really going to do a Boston stack without either Mookie or J.D.? I could make a case for doing so (Devers, JBJ), but this looks like a place to attack a good pitcher that is still going to garner some ownership. Lefties hit Morton much better, and the wind is blowing out to right. This is the time to go after him.

DraftKings MLB daily notes:

Well, the Orioles smacked three homers in the first game against Berrios. Renato Nunez, Dwight Smith Jr., and Pedro Severino did the honors. Chris Davis has homered off of him in the past. How much of a shot do you want to take at Berrios with his home splits though?

Tyler Mahle has pitched well enough so far that stacking against him may be a little much. I will have some exposure though. The Cardinals are hitting .303 against Mahle with six runs in 33 at bats. Dexter Fowler and Yadi Molina have the homers. Marcell Ozuna has hit him well too. Goldschmidt has never faced Mahle. I think he’s going to like what he sees.

More from FanSided

Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto are the Reds I want to chase Hudson with if you decide to go scorched earth against everyone’s value play. Puig is worth a look on the cheap as well.

I know….it’s hard to be selective on small slates, but we still need to be. I wont pay $7,500 for Brett Anderson based on principle. He doesn’t generate nearly enough strikeouts to pull his ass out of the fire if the Blue Jays righties light him up. The current Jays haven’t homered against Anderson in 45 at bats, but they are hitting .289 with just five strikeouts against him. Smoak and Little Vlad are definitely worth a look here. I also like Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez for the price.

Khris Davis and Kendrys Morales have both homered off of Aaron Sanchez in the past. Robbie Grossman is 4-9 with a pair of RBI as well if you want to go more after Sanchez.

I’m not sure how much exposure I want to Bieber today with his Road Warrior status, but lefties are hitting 67 points higher against him. Josh Reddick is on a tear anyway. He and Michael Brantley look like the Astros to target today.

Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria both have homered off of Happ in the past, but I’m not about using any Giants right now. They are the Washington Generals and the rest of the league’s pitchers are the Globetrotters right now.

Mike Zunino, Kevin Kiermaier, and Avi Garcia have all homered against David Price in the past. However, none of them come at a discount today. I would be leery of using any of them, especially considering Zunino is 2-15 lifetime against Price.

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