Main DraftKings MLB Picks April 27: Rangers take a Leake
By Mike Marteny
Main DraftKings MLB Picks April 27: Rangers take a Leake
We have an even split for our DraftKings MLB tournaments on Saturday. The Phillies-Marlins tilt is the only one with a weird start time, so that’s only on the showdown and all day slates. This will focus on the seven evening games.
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There is a great chance that this ends up as a six game slate. Rain is forecast all day in Chicago, turning to snow after 10pm. Not only that, but there is a strong frigid wind blowing in. Even if this game plays, I’m off of it completely. So for my article, this will be a six game slate.
Chicago isn’t the only game with wind. There is a 13 mph crosswind in New York. Add 10 mph to the crosswind and that’s what you have in Kansas City. Hitters are really going to have to get into one to get it out in that wind. The rest of the slate looks clear and calm though.
I went with Ryu/Fried and a Twins stack. That netted me 144.75 DraftKings points. The other line I went with Paxton and Ryu with a cheap Sogard, Nellie, and Francisco Lindor. That one came in at 147.5. Overall, it was a strong night.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
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DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Clayton Kershaw ($10,200): Kershaw hasn’t been his dominant self, but he also hasn’t cost $14,000 like he was two years ago. Kershaw has put up 20.8 and 19.9 DraftKings points in his two starts against two good offenses in Milwaukee and Cincy. Pittsburgh is a bit of a reprieve. We saw Ryu rack up his first double digit strikeout performance in five years against the Bucs last night. Kershaw may not be all the way back, but he could look like it tonight. This is an excellent spot for Kershaw.
Noah Syndergaard ($9,400): The Brewers have actually done pretty well against Thor. They are only hitting .222 in 63 at bats, but they do have two homers and six runs. The 22 strikeouts borders on elite though. I think many are going to be tempted to go after Thor here, which makes this a strong leverage play with numbers on your side. Thor is better than that ugly 5.90 ERA he has so far in 2019. You can make a case for either side of this and I would listen. I’m not sold on Thor either, but I love this as a leverage play.
Middle Tier:
Mike Foltynewicz ($8,800): The Rockies are only hitting .226 in 64 at bats against Folty with eight runs and 15 strikeouts. Those are some really good numbers, especially for the price. The issue here is that Foltynewicz is making his first start of 2019. His rehab starts were solid, but I still don’t see the Braves pushing Foltynewicz here. His upside is limited here. This team has playoff aspirations for this season, and Folty is a big part of it. He’s going to throw his 90 pitches and exit stage right. Can he still hit value in that span?
Jon Gray ($8,500): Gray has not allowed a homer to the Braves in 64 career at bats. Yes, that includes at bats in Coors. The Braves are also hitting just .172 with a staggering 23 strikeouts against Gray. Gray has a 1.64 ERA in five career starts against the Braves including a 2.08 mark in SunTrust Park. His price isn’t elite, but the numbers sure are. Gray might be my favorite pitcher of the night.
Bargain Pitchers:
Jorge Lopez ($6,600): You don’t usually see the strikeout upside that we have with Lopez for this price. Lopez has racekd up 29 strikeouts in 30 innings this year. The issue is the 4.50 ERA and 0-2 record. Lopez gets the reprieve of facing one of the worst offenses in the American League here. He held the worst (Detroit) to just one earned run in six innings back on April 6th. It’s reasonable to expect an outing similar to that tonight. If we get that at this price, I don’t think we can complain.
My picks: Kershaw, Gray, Gray, Lopez
DraftKings MLB stack options
New York Mets vs. Brandon Woodruff:
Woodruff’s ERA is near 6 on the year. The Mets offense in this park likely wont help that number any. Wilson Ramos is the only current Met that has faced him before. Ramos is 1-3 with a single. I want to go after this with lefties, mainly. Pete Alonso is worth a look, but if I’m paying that much, I’m going after Conforto first. Brandon Nimmo looks very tempting leading off. Robinson Cano and Jeff McNeil aren’t far behind. You can throw the Toddfather out there too if you want. I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Yu Darvish:
Arizona has slugged three homers in just 36 at bats against Darvish while hitting .306. Darvish has one of his better starts of the season against Arizona in his last start, but he still gave up three runs in five innings. Yu has given up five homers in his last three starts and has a career 4.26 ERA at Chase Field. He hasn’t shown anything that says he’s getting on track. I definitely want David Peralta, Adam Jones, and Eduardo Escobar, the three that have homered off of him. Christian Walker singled and doubled off of him last week. There is plenty to like from Arizona here.
Chicago Cubs vs. Zack Godley:
Godley has really struggled this year, and this is a hitter’s park. His career splits are about the same home and road, and they really aren’t good either place. Godley allows the same average to either hand hitter, but he allows a lot more homers to right handed hitters. Due to this, Javy Baez and Kris Bryant are the elite plays here. You could take a shot with Almora if he starts, but I can’t argue with playing for the power of Rizzo or Schwarber either. I do want the righties first and foremost though.
Texas Rangers vs. Mike Leake:
Leake has been much better at home this year, so maybe you don’t want a full on stack. However, the Rangers are hitting .347 in 147 at bats with five homers and 24 runs. Hell yeah you want this stack! 147 at bats is not a fluke. The Rangers own Leake. Choo has two of the homers. Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, and Hunter Pence have the others. Kiner-Falefa, Jeff Mathis, Rougned Odor, Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis, and Danny Santana are all hitting .333 or better as well. You can play any five Rangers and likely have a good night.
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
I’m probably not stacking on Thor. First off, despite his struggles this year, Thor has still only allowed three homers in five starts. The long ball isn’t the issue, and Yelich still hasn’t homered on the road. Grandal and Travis Shaw are the Brewers with homers off of Thor so far. I’m more looking for guys with sustained success against Thor. That’s not Yelich. He is just 3-17 lifetime. That leaves Shaw, Lorenzo Cain, and Hernan Perez as the main targets. Come to think of it, this doesn’t look so appetizing after all, but I do like a Shaw or Grandal one off.
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The Angels are probably using Jaime Barria in long relief, which takes me off of a stack. Remember how the Rays had all those struggling young starters, then started bringing them in in the second or third to face the bottom of the order first? It worked. It could work for Barria too. The Royals aren’t a great hitting team, but I can still get behind using Merrifield or Mondesi as a one off here. This weather is likely going to help pitchers more than hitters anyway. Not to the point where I would use Barria, but I’m not confident stacking on him either.
Jorge Lopez generates a lot of swings a misses, but also swings and hard hits. I wouldn’t mind taking a shot with Kole Calhoun or Trout here. I don’t think I want a lot of exposure with a gusty crosswind though.
I really want no piece of the Braves here. Only Dansby Swanson and Josh Donaldson are hitting over .240 against Gray. They also have all of the career RBI against Gray. I don’t want anyone on the other side of this either. Maybe Blackmon in his hometown, but Foltynewicz and Gray have not allowed a single homer to anyone playing in this game. We should look elsewhere.
I like Joe Musgrove, but not against the Dodgers. They are hitting .308 in a small sample size. With the way Musgrove has pitched I’m not going big with Dodgers, but I also feel like Musgrove is overpriced at $9,000. I would rather use either pitcher in Atlanta, and they are both cheaper. Joc Pederson has the only homer against Musgrove so far, but with Cody Bellinger hitting like he is, I can’t argue with that play either.
I like the Pirates bats tonight about as much as I like a root canal, colonoscopy, and that puff of air in the eyeball test……at the same time.
I like Mike Minor, but the Mariners have clobbered lefties this year. They are still hitting nearly .300 against southpaws this season! I don’t know that they’ll hit Minor to that clip, but they might. Edwin drove in four last night, so you can start with him again tonight. Mitch Haniger and Ryon Healy have both hit Minor hard in his career as well. I don’t really want anyone else though.
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