MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday, April 27 2019
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Friday’s MLB DFS slate was dominated by the debut of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who was nearly 30% owned in GPP play, while the Twins stack, who knocked back to back to back home runs with Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario and CJ Cron was the chalk stack that hit big early in the night.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Breakdown:
When looking at the early slate on this Saturday, what jumped out to me right away was the top-tier arms in elite match-ups – specifically Stephen Strasburg and Jose Berrios who get home starts against the Padres and Orioles respectively.
Strasburg ($20.6K) takes his 31% K rate on the season to his home mound against a right-handed heavy Padres team that his teammate Max Scherzer just struck out 10 against last night. Strasburg is a huge -165 home favorite and much like Mad Max was yesterday, he becomes the SP1 building block on this slate.
Berrios ($19.6K) meanwhile gets a home start against the Orioles, a -285 home favorite with Baltimore having the lowest IRT of any team on the Early Slate. Berrios just faced this Orioles squad in Baltimore and had his worst start of the year – giving up 3 HR, 8 hits and 4 ER, with only 5 K’s and my hope is that the game log watchers simply see that and move away from Berrios.
Berrios is a significantly better arm at home, the splits have been that way throughout his career and so far in 2019 he has had his two best starts in Minnesota with a 10 K shutout on Opening Day, good for 39 fantasy points, and a 7 K performance against Detroit which was good for 25 fantasy points.
There is merit to simply paying up for both arms on this slate and while it may mean you have to fade the chalky Minnesota stack and their 6 run IRT, I think there are a ton of solid options in the $7-$8K range when picking bats that make a Strasburg/Berrios build ideal for cash and GPP.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Bats:
The Cleveland Indians have a mediocre 4.5 IRT against Brad Peacock and the Houston Astros today – a stack that likely will not stand out for those who simply look at Vegas totals, but picking on Peacock with this Indians team could pay big dividends. Since the start of 2018, Peacock has given up a .346 ISO mark to LHB with a 43% HC rate and Cleveland’s projected line-up has 8 left-handed hitters waiting for him which could spell disaster.
The “big spends” here are Francisco Lindor ($8.2K) and Jose Ramirez ($8.4K), two elite talents who are not priced that way and since the start of 2018 simply destroy RHP with .236 and .280 ISO marks. The rest of this stack is loaded with left-handed batters, none of whom are priced above $7.7K so this becomes a core mid-range stack from a pricing perspective that allows you the ability to spend up on two stud arms.
Peacock has been an arm that DFS players have focused in on in the early going as a high K arm based largely on his 2018 stats out of the pen and really in 2019, he has struggled to show that same upside with only a 20% K rate thus far, with it falling even lower – 12.8% against LHB this season.
The lack of swing and miss ability and the fact this game takes place in Houston where the roof will likely be open with 80+ degree temperatures and 13 MPH winds blowing out, makes it an intriguing stack that will likely have minimal ownership.
Where Lindor and Ramirez are the cash game anchors, a cheap GPP stack can be made here by adding on Leonys Martin, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers and Jason Kipnis – where you simply mix and match the lefty bats in the order to take advantage of Peacock’s struggles with left-handed hitters.
Speaking of under-priced LHB – the Reds take on Dakota Hudson in St. Louis, a pitcher who has given up .511 ISO and 52% HC rate to left-handed hitters in 2019 and this Cincinnati line-up is stacked with under-priced lefties. Joey Votto ($7.5K), Jesse Winker ($7.4K) and Scott Schebler ($6.8K) make for a cheap three man stack with Winker/Schbler profiling extremely well, with .200+ ISO marks against the splitter which is a pitch Hudson throws over 40% of the time to LHB.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a plug and play lineup.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
SP: Stephen Strasburg
SP: Jose Berrios
IF: Jose Ramirez
IF: Francisco Lindor
IF: Joey Votto
OF: Scott Schebler
OF: Leonys Marton
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
UTIL: Jesse Winker
UTIL: CJ Cron
Slate Overview: If you want to pay down at pitcher so you can cram in the high-priced Twins stack with a 6+ IRT, I certainly understand the logic – however, I think there are multiple paths where you can pay up for the top two arms on the Early Slate without sacrificing much offensively.
There are 4-5 teams with a 4-5 IRT on this slate with the Reds/Indians and even the Jays/A’s fairly priced that give you similar upside without having to pay the premium for the Twins bats who outside of CJ Cron are all in the $9-$10K range on FantasyDraft.
With the Early Slate out of the way – let’s take our winnings, and head to the Main Slate!
MLB DFS – Main Slate Breakdown:
The 7 game Main Slate looks like it has some serious weather risk in Chicago with the Tigers and White Sox which could quickly make this a six game slate on Saturday Night.
Much like the early slate was – I think this main slate is one where you can pay up for two top arms and still build a strong well-rounded offense.
Clayton Kershaw ($19.8K) has come off the DL, made two starts and put up 20 FPPG with 13K’s in 13 innings of work. Tonight, Kershaw is a massive -200 ome favorite against a Pirates team with the lowest IRT on the slate at only 3.1 runs. There is nothing sneaky here – you are paying the premium for an elite arm who has a high cash game floor with demonstrated upside and this Pirates team is one that has struggled all year with LHP.
Look back at last night, Hyun-Jin Ryu, went 7 innings and struck out 10 on his way to 31 fantasy points and in fact, the last 4 LHP who have started against the Pirates have had at least 7 K’s in each outing, which adds a ceiling to Kershaw’s safe floor.
The Mets, who are giving out Noah Syndergaard "Game of Thrones" bobbleheads to the first 25,000 fans tomorrow, expect a big crowd and are encouraging folks to use public transport.
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) April 26, 2019
Remember, the largest regular-season crowd in Citi Field history was on Syndergaarden Gnome day.
Noah Syndergaard ($17.9K) has had a rocky start to 2019, pitching to a 5+ ERA with only one of his five starts resulting in 20+ fantasy points. The match-up with the Brewers is a scary one – this is a line-up that just knocked Jacob deGrom out, so playing Thor is more of a GPP play than it is a cash game recommendation.
The reality is, Thor has been unlucky to start as his xFIP of 3.3 suggests which is significantly lower than his 5.9 ERA and his 27% K rate and 12.4% swinging strike rate, tell you this is still an elite K arm that has the ability to dominate on any given night.
Plus let’s be honest – its Noah Syndergaard Game of Thrones Bobblehad Night at Citi Field and at Picks and Pivots, we throw analytics out the window where narratives are involved. All in baby!
MLB DFS – Main Slate Bats:
The Mets will be taking on Brandon Woodruff, a RHP who has given up a .235 ISO and 50% HC rate to LHB on the season and with the Mets line-up loaded with left-handed power, this has the potential for a GPP winning stack. Michael Conforto ($9.4K) is the pricey spend here but you can balance it out with Robinson Cano ($7.3K), Jeff McNeil ($8.3K) and Brandon Nimmo ($7.3K).
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
Woodruff relies on a fastball-slider combination to LHB, and this is a combination the Mets lefties handle really well with Cano, Conforto and McNeil all with 200+ ISO marks against the slider while Cano and Conforto both have .200+ ISO marks against the fastball velocity Woodruff throws at.
Rather than all out stacking, this may be a slate where you take 2-3 batters from a few different spots.
The Angels left-handed batters get a match-up with Jorge Lopez, a pitcher with a .396 ISO and 40% HC rate to LHB in 2019 which sets up perfectly for guys like Justin Bour ($7.7K) and Kole Calhoun ($8.1K). Lopez relies almost entirely on a splitter/curve duo against LHB and this combination makes Bour one of my favorite bats on the slate has he has a 200+ ISO mark against both of those pitches with 320-325 average distance traveled.
Lastly, the Arizona bats make for an interesting GPP stack as not only are they pricey but they face an arm in Yu Darvish that I think could warrant some ownership which makes this a good leverage spot. Darvish has given up .200+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate with LHB sporting a 36% HC rate and with guys like Eduardo Escobar and David Peralta in the heart of that lineup, this could be a low owned spot in tournaments that takes down a higher owned pitcher who just faced this team in Chicago.
Note: With Chase Field roof expected to be open and 90+ degree temperatures, this total has jumped from 9 to start the day all the way up to 10.5 with the Cubs and Diamondbacks with 5.3 run totals, the only two team over 5 on the Main Slate.
Good luck all!
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