MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Saturday 4/27

MLB DFS Pitching: Saturday, April 27

Welcome back to the Saturday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

Last night was quite a night for offenses as balls were leaving the yard like crazy, but we also saw some really great pitching performances from some of our guys like Marcus Stroman, Jerad Eickhoff, Max Scherzer, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, and James Paxton. We don’t have the same depth in pitching today, but that will make getting the right pitcher(s) all the more important to building a winning lineup.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article.  With all 30 teams in action today, we have 30 different pitchers to choose from, but we have a classic Saturday split slate with 7 games on the early slate and 7 games on the evening slate on FanDuel and DraftKings.

I am going to try to help you focus in on the top 3-4 pitchers that you should consider for your DFS lineups tonight.

I like to remind everyone that this is a first look article and that I use this process to build my player pool for pitchers but I may not use all of the pitchers that I recommend each night depending on how many lineups I play and what kind of salary cap restrictions I am faced with once I decide which offenses I want to roster.

MLB DFS Pitching: First Look

With two 7-game slates on tap, let’s first take a look at our pitching matchups.  I always try to include the Vegas odds for each game. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road.

Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second, Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis.

Early Slate (7 games)

Dan Straily vs. Jose Berrios (-286)

Tyler Mahle vs. Dakota Hudson (-126)

Brett Anderson (-105) vs. Aaron Sanchez 

Shane Bieber vs. Brad Peacock (-130)

J.A. Happ vs. Derek Holland (-105)

Eric Lauer vs. Stephen Strasburg (-167)

Charlie Morton vs. David Price (-145)

Main Slate (7 games)

Ryan Carpenter vs. Reynaldo Lopez (-133)

Brandon Woodruff vs. Noah Syndergaard (-135)

Jaime Barria (-105) vs. Jorge Lopez

Jon Gray vs. Mike Foltynewicz (-125)

Yu Darvish (-107) vs. Zack Godley 

Joe Musgrove vs. Clayton Kershaw (-205)

Mike Minor vs. Mike Leake (-115)

We have more options on the early slate we can feel good about, but things could dicey on the evening slate after the top pitchers.

We have the return of one of my favorite guys from last year, Mike Foltynewicz, from the disabled list, but more on that later. Without any further ado, let’s take a look at my favorite top tier plays for cash games!

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces (Early)

David Price (9.5k FD, 9k DK) vs. Tampa Bay

Price isn’t the best pitcher on this slate, but he’s my favorite for cash games based on his price, matchup, and current form. He faces a Tampa team that he racked up 10 strikeouts against in only 5 innings last week. He’s a home favorite and despite Tampa’s power in their lineup, they also strikeout over 24% of the time.

Stephen Strasburg (11.2k FD, 10.5k DK) vs. San Diego

Strasburg is coming off an impressive 8-inning, 11 strikeout performance against Miami in his last start and gets a right-handed heavy Padres team today at home. He struck out 8 Giants in 6 innings two starts ago but did allow four earned runs in that outing.

His 29% strikeout rate coupled with San Diego’s 26% K rate means we have the potential for a lot of whiffs today, giving him an excellent floor and ceiling. If you have the cap to use on him, then he’s an elite play in all formats. He’s just really pricey on FanDuel.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Options (Early)

J.A. Happ (8.5k FD, 9.2k DK) @ San Francisco

Is Happ back? He pitched his best game of the season so far in his last start against the Angels, going 7 innings and allowing only two earned runs while striking out five.

Today he faces a national league team in a pitching-friendly park and I think he could keep it going against these mediocre Giants hitters. James Paxton was solid into the sixth inning last night before giving up a few runs and I think we can target another lefty Happ here in this matchup with some confidence.

Jose Berrios (10.1k FD, 10k DK) vs. Baltimore

Berrios is a strong option today, but I am hesitant to use him in cash games based on how pesky the Orioles have been lately. He’s on the right side of his home/road splits as he’s been much better at home. The Orioles aren’t striking out as much as people think they are (only 21% which around league average), but they do struggle against the curveball and Berrios has a doozy of one.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms + SP2s (Early)

Aaron Sanchez (7.2k FD, 6.8k DK) vs. Oakland

This is not a play that I have much confidence in, let me just start by saying that. Sanchez is coming off a stint on the DL due to a broken fingernail. The injury forced him to leave his last start early which happened to be against these Oakland Athletics. He had made it through fourth innings and allowed only one run before being lifted.

We saw Marcus Stroman dominate this A’s lineup last night with 7 scoreless innings and Sanchez is another guy who can be tough on righties. I have my concerns with his walks and it’s quite possible he’s been pitching over his head this season, but his price is attractive (specifically as an SP2 on DK) on a slate that lacks value.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces (Main)

Clayton Kershaw (10.9k FD, 10.2k DK) vs. Pittsburgh

Kershaw is the only arm I trust in cash games tonight, so on FanDuel just click him in your lineup and find some value to make it work. He’s been solid, not spectacular, in his first two starts of the season allowing only 7 hits in 13 innings while striking out a batter per inning.

The matchup is really what we are after here as the Pirates continue to get dominated by left-handed starters (Ryu 10 strikeouts last night). As a sizeable home favorite with a solid offense behind him, I think Kershaw is a lock for 6-7 good innings, a quality start, and the win that we always after.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Options (Main)

Mike Foltynewicz (9k FD, 8.8k DK) vs. Colorado

Folty returns! I had a bit of a man-crush on him last season as he emerged as the ace of the Braves staff and he was often very good to me at low ownership.

Last year he piled up a 27% strikeout rate behind a mid 90’s fastball and a hard slider. He took a little while to make the adjustment from being a reliever to a starter, but the guy is a hard thrower who can dominate a lineup and pile up strikeouts.

The Rockies offense came to life last night but is still striking out 24% of the time this season. Folty held hitters from both sides of the plate under a .280 wOBA last year and I think he’s well worth a shot tonight as many players will be hesitant to roster him before seeing him in action.

Jon Gray (8.6k FD, 8.5k DK) @ Atlanta

Gray is another GPP target in the same game. He’s been really effective this season with four quality starts in his five outings. This matchup is dangerous as the Braves have an elite lineup of hitters and Gray’s weakness is walks and hard contact to lefties.

However, I still think we can target Gray here at this price and a major park upgrade outside of Coors. He has a solid K rate, huge swinging strike rate (12%) and a solid groundball rate. He should be low-owned tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms + SP2s (Main)

Jorge Lopez (7.7k FD, 6.6k DK) vs. Los Angelas Angels

Lopez is the only cheap guy I care for on this slate. After a rough start to the season, he’s bounced back with two respectable outings his last two times out, allowing 4 earned runs to the White Sox and Yankees each, but piling up 16 strikeouts in 13 innings while only walking three batters.

The Angels are a team I continue to want to pick on with pitchers. It hasn’t gone so well lately with Duffy and Tanaka the last two times out. They don’t strike out a ton but also don’t have a lot of power outside of Trout in that lineup that should scare us.

He’s my preferred SP2 on DK mainly for his price and I have modest expectations here for him. Six innings with only a few runs allowed and 5-6 strikeouts would be all we are asking of him at this price.

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Cans of the Night (and Day)

Early: Dan Straily vs. Minnesota

Dan Straily is BAD! I mean he was once a pretty good pitcher, but that was over 5 years ago. I’m not sure how he still has a rotation spot in the majors at this point. His xFIP is approaching 6 and he can’t really strike anyone out anymore with a high 80’s fastball and nothing special in terms of breaking balls.

He managed to go five innings against the Twins last week and only allow three runs on six hits and three walks. I don’t see that happening again, and the Twins power bats are going to make him pay for walking guys and leaving pitches in the middle of the plate.

Late: Zach Godley vs. Chicago Cubs

Godley is not a true gas can, but he is a guy I want to pick on tonight with Cubs bats. He’s mediocre at best, let’s say. He throws mainly sinkers and curveballs, allows a ton of hard contact and walks too many hitters.

If he’s putting men on base today, it’s going to end badly as the Cubs have some serious power from both sides of the plate who will punish him for hanging curveballs or leave sinkers up in the zone.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Price-Strasburg (if I can make it fit) for the early slate. I don’t often pay up for two pitchers but I really don’t trust any of the value plays.

My favorite cash pairing for the late slate is Kershaw and Lopez, which should give us plenty of salary cap to fit in the bats that you want.

Cash Rankings

Early:

1. Price
2. Strasburg
3. Happ
4. Sanchez (SP2)

Late:

1. Kershaw
2. Lopez (SP2)

GPP Rankings

Early:

1. Berrios
2. Strasburg
3. Price
4. Happ

Late:

1. Foltynewicz
2. Gray
3. Kershaw

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!