NFL Draft – Fantasy Football: Winners and Losers

NFL Draft – Fantasy Football: 3 Winners and Losers

With the 2019 NFL Draft now officially in the books, the fantasy football community has a much better idea of which rookies are set to make a year-one impact. An extensive run on defensive players and offensive linemen early in the draft left a ton of options open for teams seeking skill-position players. Without further ado, let’s dig into the good stuff!

"DISCLAIMER: These picks are not based off potential long-term success, but instead the impact these players will have for your fantasy squads in their rookie seasons."

Winner: WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

As the third receiver off the board in this year’s draft, former-Gamecock Deebo Samuel was selected by the 49ers with the no. 36 overall pick.

While Samuel’s statistics don’t pop off the sheet like some other receivers in this draft, he remained a consistent producer throughout his time at South Carolina. While compiling 883 yards through the air in 2018, he showed a knack for reaching pay-dirt with 11 touchdowns. He’s a superior athlete, as well, scoring in top-15 percentile on his SPARQ test with a 118.5.

What truly separates him from the bunch, however, is his running-back-like vision once he’s got the ball in his hands. While he may lack size at 5’11”, Samuel is a shifty, physical runner and tough for defenders to bring down once he hits the second level.

https://twitter.com/Rob_Lowder/status/1121920607036121088

In head coach Kyle Shanahan‘s system, Samuel should slide into the starting slot position right from the get-go, running alongside fellow wideouts Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin. San Francisco should also get back a fully-heathy Jimmy Garoppolo this season, which is a huge boost to the entire offense. Samuel’s physicality and red-zone prowess should make him a factor from day-one, even helping take some of the attention off TE George Kittle.

At 23 years old, Samuel is one of the oldest pass-catchers in his class, bringing plenty of experience to the table. His crisp route-running and after-the-catch ability should earn him enough playing time to flirt with low-end WR3 numbers in his rookie season.

Loser: WR D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

It took much longer than anticipated, but D.K. Metcalf finally heard his phone ring when the Seattle Seahawks selected him with the final pick of the second round.

A player who was projected as the first receiver off the board by many analysts, Metcalf’s draft stock plummeted. While the Ole Miss alum contains freakish athletic ability, posting a 4.33 forty-time and 40.5″ vertical at the Combine, he wasn’t even the first wideout on his own team taken in the draft. Scouts simply weren’t willing to pull the trigger on him early. Why?

It turns out, his otherworldly body fat percentage of 1% wasn’t enough to win over GMs around the league.

In all seriousness, the biggest knocks on Metcalf’s seem to be his poor route-running and lack of lateral quickness. In his 3-cone and 20-yard shuttle drills, he finished with miserable times of 7.38 and 4.5 seconds. His sub-par route-running is something he’ll have to fine-tune at the professional level, which can often take some time.

While there are, admittedly, worse places for a player to end up, playing on the run-heavy Seahawks offense isn’t going to do Metcalf any favors. While this doesn’t seem like an ideal landing spot, Metcalf is still a phenomenal athlete who could still see enough opportunity in 2019 to make an impact, especially in the wake of Doug Baldwin‘s injury news. He’ll be a long-term project for Seattle, however, making him a risky WR3 to start the season.

Winner: RB David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

When the Bears traded up in the third round to nab Iowa State running back David Montgomery, head coach Matt Nagy finally got a perfect fit for Chicago’s West Coast offense, a system that works primarily out of the gun.

The biggest reason Jordan Howard was never seen as a particular good fit for Nagy’s scheme was his lack of elusiveness and quick burst. Good news, Montgomery’s got both of those things. According to Pro Football Focus, Montgomery is the only RB in the PFF era to force over 100 missed tackles in a single season. The crazy thing is… He did it twice.

Montgomery, like Howard, lacks some straight-line speed, but makes up for it with his patient run-style and ability to burst through the hole. He’s proven his merits as a receiver in college, as well, totaling 58 catches as a sophomore and junior. As you can see, he has a knack for making defenders look foolish in the open-field.

He should slide right into the starting role on first and second-down, but could also begin to take some snaps from the versatile Tarik Cohen, who can be used in various other ways throughout the formation. The Bears did add both Mike Davis (Free Agency) and Kerrith Whyte Jr. (Draft) to the backfield mix this offseason, but neither should pose much of a threat to his workload. In an offense that’s aiming to take a big step forward in Year 2 of Nagy’s regime, Montgomery has RB2 potential.

Loser: RB Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

This pick is really more about the team/situation and less about the player himself.

Devin Singletary, a running back that was placed atop multiple draft experts’ big boards, may have landed in the utmost worst spot fantasy owners would’ve envisioned when the Buffalo Bills selected him with the no. 74 pick in the draft.

Although the ultra-talented runner out of Florida Atlantic has the talent it takes to eventually overtake the Bills’ top RB spot, he joins LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, and T.J. Yeldon in a nightmare depth chart scenario.

Singletary rumbled for nearly 4,300 yards during his illustrious collegiate career, averaging six yards per carry. He did so while running behind one of the worst o-lines in the country. Additionally, Singletary ranked just behind David Montgomery with 96 forced missed tackles in 2018. His Combine forty time of 4.66 may be underwhelming, but he makes up for this with good footwork and precise lateral cuts.

Coming into camp, Singletary is going to have to fight to earn snaps. He possesses the capability to do so, but it may take time before he receives a deserving workload. He may not have much upside as a receiver either, as his receptions over the past two seasons have dropped from 26 in 2016 to just 6 in 2018. The Bills already have two more-than-capable pass-catchers in McCoy and Yeldon.

Singletary has a bright future ahead of him in the NFL, but we may have to wait until next season before we get to see him in a featured role. He’s best looked at as an upside RB3/FLEX to begin 2019.

Winner: WR Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs

Literally minutes before the start of the draft’s first round, some pretty awful news broke regarding K.C. wide receiver Tyreek Hill and a domestic incident that will have him suspended from team activities for the foreseeable future (that is, if he isn’t released).

Leaving behind a gaping hole in the Chiefs’ receiving corps, the team decided to address the need rather early when they moved up to select burner-WR Mecole Hardman with the 56th overall pick.

When watching his tape, you’ll see that this kid can flat-out fly.

At the Combine, Hardman clocked in at 4.33 seconds for his forty time, second of all receivers in his class behind just Parris Campbell. Standing at just 5’10” with a 185-pound frame, he ironically profiles as a Tyreek Hill 2.0 prototype.

As a junior at the University of Georgia, Hardman averaged 15.7 yards per catch while finding the end-zone seven times. His home-run ability combined with reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes‘ gun-slinger mentality is a match made in heaven.

He’s still a bit raw as someone who didn’t see the field much as a freshman, but his pairing with the Kansas City Chiefs instantly places him on the fantasy radar. He should enter the summer as a boom-or-bust WR4 with plenty of room to grow. Considering where you’ll be able to grab him in drafts, there isn’t a whole lot of risk involved with Hardman. However, owners who take a chance on him could be rewarded handsomely.

Loser: QB Drew Lock, Denver Broncos

Like Metcalf, ex-Mizzou QB Drew Lock had to wait longer than he may have wanted before hearing his name called.

It was none other than John Elway and the Denver Broncos that decided to take a chance on the SEC’s second all-time leading passer, grabbing him with the no. 42 pick in the second round. Much like Singletary, Lock fell victim to landing in a poor situation for his 2019 fantasy outlook.

Lock has an absolute cannon for an arm. In fact, he came into the pre-draft process with what scouts saw as the strongest arm out of any quarterback available. In 2017, Lock made his name known when he threw for nearly 4,000 yards to go along with 44 touchdowns. His production dropped-off a bit last season, but his arm strength remains tantalizing, nonetheless.

However, Lock likely won’t get much of an opportunity in 2019 as he’ll have to ride the bench to begin his career while “learning” under veteran signal-caller Joe Flacco. This notion was backed-up by Elway when he addressed the media Friday, stating the following:

"“Drew, he fell a long way but we always liked him. Felt very good about him. He’ll come in and he’s got a lot to learn but he’s got a very good teacher in Joe (Flacco) and he’ll come in and compete for the backup spot.”"

In fantasy football, hearing a team’s GM say “backup” is the last thing you want to hear. He could still have a bright future in Denver, but it’ll have to wait for at least one, if not a couple of years. Unfortunately, this puts him off the re-draft radar, making him nothing more than a dynasty league stash.

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