MLB Bets – Sunday April 28 – Can Tampa Bay Overpower Boston?
By John Fazio
Good day from MLB Bets. A good day Saturday posting a 2.35 unit gain sends the seasons profits to an all time high.
MLB Bets had 3 losers of 1 unit each, Cleveland was a wash winning first half and losing the game, Detroit rained out, and 4 dog winners came thru. Using 1 unit as the base and allowing for lay and take, the system is now up 24.75 units on the season.
Here we go today, hoping the system keeps rolling along. For tracking purposes all plays are valid regardless of pitching changes. All times Eastern.
Tampa Bay (+1.42) brushes past Boston, 1:05 pm
The Rays have it together this season. Sending their best pitcher out today can’t hurt either.
Tyler Glasnow has a 1.53 ERA on the season and looks poised to win another game. He is 4-0 so far. Chris Sale had a decent game last time out but he owns a 7.43 ERA mark. He is personally 0-4 and the Red Sox are 0-5 when he starts.
If Sale wasn’t a big name from the past it’s doubtful he would be in the rotation. They are sticking with him hoping for past glory. Who knows, it may return – but Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball by win percentage so mathematically this is not the game to bet he will succeed.
The Rays are now 6-1 in road games against a left-handed starter. As pointed out above, Boston is 0-5 in Sale’s starts this season.
Miami (1st 5 innings +1/2 and game +1.52) surprises Philadelphia, 1:10 pm
Philly has had their way with the Marlins. Sunday is Miami’s best chance to reverse course.
This wager remains a total risk of 1 unit. Half and half on the description above.
Sunday the Marlins trot out Pablo Lopez who is pitching better and better with every start. Just as importantly, Zach Eflin for the Phillies has lost his last 3 games after an impressive 2-0 start.
Just as we split the Indians bet yesterday, the 1st 5 innings saving us, so too this looks like a game we should gain a win in at least one and hopefully both wagers. It’s the best pitching match-up the Marlins could hope for at this time.
MLB Bets churned out a play on Miami here, even though there are no trends to support a Marlin win. The system has been right in the past going against the grain, and this game is no exception. Really though, most of this season’s hefty profits have been on the lowly teams in their better pitching match-up scenarios. Here’s hoping for another good result.
MLB Bets – Sunday April 28
Milwaukee (+1.06) sweeps the Mets, 1:10 pm
The Brewers are a streaky team. They’ve found a rhythm in New York.
MLB Bets is not making this wager against New York’s starting pitcher. In fact, both Zach Davies and Steven Matz have been pitching very well except for that one bad outing Matz had which will unfairly destroy his ERA.
This wager is based on the Brew Crew owning the series so far. The fact they are a streaky team makes this a legitimate angle to address and exploit. This is similar to the Tampa Bay betting strategy when they play in Boston.
Milwaukee is now 7-3 in away games against a left hander. Amazingly, the Mets are now 3-10 when Matz starts at home against a team with a winning record.
For whatever reason, probably just coincidence which then gets into players heads and becomes a trend, the Brewers win a lot on Sunday’s while the Mets are now 0-4 on that day.
Kansas City (+1.04) upends the Angels, 2:15 pm
The Royals powered past Los Angeles on Saturday. They should be able to obtain the same results today.
Matt Harvey gets the call for Los Angeles posting an 8.03 ERA and a 0-2 record. He has looked good at times but mostly he has been rocked.
Homer Bailey goes for the Royals with mixed results himself, but he is capable of pitching truly outstanding ball. Before getting drilled at Tampa Bay he threw 13 combined innings over 2 games allowing 1 earned run.
Amazingly Los Angeles is now 3-14 in their last 17 away games, 3-9 this season and 2-9 against a right hander. KC has a positive trend in beating sub 500 teams at home with a record of 12-4.
MLB Bets – Sunday April 28
Yankees (-1.14) too much for San Francisco, 4:10 pm
New York is on a roll winning 2 already from the Giants in this series and winning 8 out of their last 10 games overall. When New York starts dominating, they are tough to slow down.
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The Yankees are only 1 1/2 games out of first in the AL East even after their slow start. In addition they are 4-1 when Domingo German starts on the road and 6-1 when facing a right hander.
Even though Giants starter Dereck Rodriguez has been pitching fairly well, San Francisco is 0-7 in his last 7 home starts. And overall the Giants are 2-9 at home against above .500 teams.
San Francisco could win this game of course; nothing is a lock. However the odds are New York will keep on winning today. MLB Bets believes the odds New York wins this game exceed the -1.50 level, so the value lies in laying the 1.14 on the away favorite.
MLB Bets Recap For Sunday April 28th:
Tampa Bay +1.42
Miami half on the 1st 5 innings +1/2 and half on the game +1.52
Milwaukee +1.06
Kansas City +1.04
Yankees -1.14
This is a fun time of year with NBA and NHL playoffs going plus of course baseball. MLB Bets sincerely hopes everyone does well, but please remember this system won’t win all the time and probably won’t win at the rate it has in April.
Betting $100 as a base bet on each play listed in the fantasycpr articles and additional plays posted on twitter since the beginning of the season, you would be ahead nearly $2500 today.
No way to fib these figures since every play is posted publicly and no reason to fib since MLB Bets asks for no money.
Just please always be careful since an 0-fer any day is always possible. The system has been a winner over the course of time so wager cautiously geared toward the long term. Don’t let a bad short term swing knock you out.
Next. Late DraftKings MLB plays April 28. dark