NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: GEICO 500 – Cup Series from Talladega

Welcome to NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s Geico 500 from Talladega Superspeedway! For the first time in over 30 years, the Monster Energy Cup Series teams will race without the restrictor-plates at Talladega, instead teams will race with the 2019 rules package with adjustments for the 2.66-mile superspeedway that include a 0.922-inch tapered spacer, an increase in the height of the spoiler to nine inches and a 1-inch bolt-on track bar mount to change the height from 11 to 12 inches, raising the rear of the car by one inch. In another change teams will run a brand new left-side tire code and the same right-side tires that were used last season, the new tire set-up came after a test at Daytona in February. 

Ford has won the last seven races here at Talladega, and 56% percent of Talladega winners have come from a top-five starting spot. The second starting spot has produced the most winners (20) which is where last falls winner, Aric Almirola, starts today. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is the last of 14 drivers to win from the pole with his win back in the spring 2017 race. Only Brad Keselowski (3) and Joey Logano (2) have won multiple races here at Talladega over the last 5 years (10 races)

NASCAR DFS – Vegas Odds:

Joey Logano 8/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Clint Bowyer 10/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Kyle Busch 10/1
Aric Almirola 14/1
Ryan Blaney 14/1
Chase Elliott 14/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 18/1
Kurt Busch 18/1
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
Jimmie Johnson 18/1
Paul Menard 18/1
Daniel Suarez 18/1

NASCAR DFS – Leaders of the Pack 

Kyle Busch ($12,000)

Qualifying Position: 22nd

Kyle Busch in a fast car, starting 22nd, and only $12,000? This seems like a trick, right? Unless there is something wrong with the #18 car that we don’t know about, this seems like the chalk spot for today and almost a play I can’t fade. Busch had the 7th best combined practice ranking and has led 67 laps over the last 3 years here. This is also the first time in 7 races that Kyle is priced this low, and in that race he picked up a 3rd place finish (Penzoil 400 3/3 @ Vegas)

Brad Keselowski ($10,700) 

Qualifying Position: 4th

Keselowski has 3 wins in the last races at Talladega and even though he didn’t great practice sessions this week it doesn’t mean that Keselowski won’t produce a great finish. I still think he wins this race today, based on just how well he does here in his history and the fact he’s led 276 laps over the last 6 races.  Keselowski has led at least 30 laps in 4 of the last 5 races this season as well.

Ryan Blaney ($9,800)

Qualifying Position: 7th

I feel like every week is Blaney’s week, but then something happens and he just doesn’t get it done. Blaney does have 4 top 5 finishes in the last 6 races, but does also have a 37th (engine blew up) and a 25th place finish during that 6 race span. While he hasn’t won here, Blaney does typically run well , averaging 70% of time inside the top 15 with an average run position of 11.8 over the last 6 races

Other Options: Joey Logano ($11,200), Martin Truex Jr. ($10,100)

NASCAR DFS – Middle of the Pack

Denny Hamlin ($9,200)

Qualifying Position: 23rd

If Kyle Busch isn’t the chalk play of the day, then Hamlin definitely is. Hamlin starting 23rd at this price with an average finish of 11.5 over the last 6 races here makes Hamlin probably my 1A play tied with Busch. Hamlin is the closest thing to a sure thing this season not with the last name Busch, coming into today Hamlin has finished no worse than 11th this season with 8 top tens in 9 races.

Aric Almirola ($8,100)

Qualifying Position: 2nd

Almirola hasn’t fared well in his last two races but does own the last win here at Talladega and is starting 2nd, which I mentioned earlier is where the most winners come from. Almirola has a fast car and if he can get out front right away he could lead a bunch of laps if this race stays clean.

There is not a lot I like in this price point today, there is one more driver in this range I really like, but you will see him in the place differential section later.

Other Options: Jimmie Johnson ($8,300), Ryan Newman ($7,800) – FAST! Dark horse winner candidate

NASCAR DFS – Back of the Pack

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,400)

Qualifying Position: 6th

Stenhouse is fast this weekend, 2nd fastest in final practice and ran the top 10 lap average as well. Over his last 6 races here Stenhouse has an average finish 9.3 and is averaging 34.25 DKFP per race here during that span.

Paul Menard ($6,700)

Qualifying Position: 17th

Menard may be one of the most pleasant surprises this season with 8 straight top 20 finishes, including back to back top 10’s. While he hasn’t had great history here as far as DK points (28.5 average over the last 6) Menard did run the 8th best lap in final practice. Menard will most likely be low owned again this week and if he manages another top 10 he could be the difference to a small and large pay-day.

Matt Tifft ($6,100)

Qualifying Position: 18th

Tifft looked real fast this weekend, after 15th in first practice Tifft improved to 4th fastest in final practice. This car looks good and could surprise with a top 15, or top 10 if things break his way and he avoids the “Big One”.

Justin Haley ($5,100)

Qualifying Position: 38th

Haley is filling taking over the #77, the 5th driver of this car this season, but he may be the best. Haley has shown that he can be a great driver in the Xfinity Series this season and drove his #11 car home to a 7th place finish on Saturday at Talladega. For his price and where he starts there is really only positive points that can come from rostering Haley, as well as being able to build a competitive team with three of the top guys on the track today.

Other Options : Alex Bowman ($7,200), Bubba Wallace ($6,000), Ross Chastain ($5,800)

NASCAR DFS – Place Differential Play

Erik Jones ($8,700)

Qualifying Position: 27th

Erik Jones still seems to be getting such little respect in NASCAR DFS, but this week he could be worth some real big DK points. Starting 27th is a big reason to roster him, as well as his 5th best combined practice speed over the two practices on Friday. His car looks fast and he will probably be climbing through the field quick and could run towards the front all day today.

Other Options: Chris Buescher ($6,900) – Starts 31st, has a fast car and is another amazing place differential play today. 

NASCAR DFS – Lineup Build

This is going to be short and sweet, I am locking in Hamlin and Kyle Busch and then see which low price drivers I want to roster after (probably Buescher and Haley for sure). If I can roster Keselowski comfortably I will definitely be locking him in, but if I feel like it’s forced and I have to take drivers I am less confident in, I will move off him and see what fits better (like Erik Jones).

Thank you for reading my NASCAR DFS Pit Stop article this week and make sure you look for my Xfinity Series and Truck Series articles each week they race as well. Be sure to check out Fantasy CPR daily for all your DFS needs, and remember all content is ALWAYS FREE here!