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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: Monday April 29, 2019

By Matt McGarvey

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 28: Josh Donaldson #20 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates with Ozzie Albies and Tyler Flowers #25 after hitting a three-run home run against the Colorado Rockies at SunTrust Park on April 28, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 28: Josh Donaldson #20 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates with Ozzie Albies and Tyler Flowers #25 after hitting a three-run home run against the Colorado Rockies at SunTrust Park on April 28, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images) /
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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: April 29th

Tonight’s Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks slate features nine games with, Atlanta (5.1), Boston (4.9), Houston (4.9), and Washington (4.7) , holding the best projected team totals. With a handful of high priced pitchers available, finding value will be imperative for success.
We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, and line movement.

MLB DFS Standout Picks: Batted Ball Stats

Matt Adams – DK $4300, FD $2700

Washington holds one of the highest projected team totals on the slate, and Matt Adams could be a beneficiary. Adams is boom or bust as always, however, his recent batted ball stats would indicate that he may be a bit under priced in this spot. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 32 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 7%, and his exit velocity is up 4 MPH, over his yearly average. This isn’t necessarily a buy low spot, but I think Adams offers value. He’s especially cheap on FanDuel, at only $2700.

Matt Carpenter – DK $3800, FD $3600

Matt Carpenter is simply too cheap tonight on DraftKings. He is priced down given the matchup with Corbin, however, he’s been hitting the ball well enough of late to overcome this. In the last 15 days his distance is up 11 feet, his exit velocity is down 7%, and his hard hit percentage is up 1 MPH. So while his batted ball stats aren’t all that different, the price drop is too much. Carpenter was priced as a high as $5000 earlier this month.

Batter Splits

Ronald Acuna – DK $4900

While he has a steep price tag tonight, Acuna is worth considering if you’re a fan of batter splits. Acuna will draw an enticing matchup tonight, as he’ll face the lefty, Nick Margevicius. Acuna is much better against left handed pitching, with a .442 wOBA split (.075 better than when facing a righty) and a .328 ISO split (.102 better than when facing a righty).

Line Movement

Atlanta will play host to the visiting Padres, in a game in which Atlanta opened as -145 favorites. Since opening, they have been bet out to as high as -161 favorites. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has also seen some action. The game total opened at nine, with -120 juice on the under and has now flipped to -120 juice on the over, and trending towards 9.5.

Tonight’s game will be the fourth of the Padres’ east coast trip. They played well against Washington, but are on the third leg of a consecutive back to backs. I would expect the Braves to put up runs tonight and exceed their team total. You’ll need to find unique ways to obtain low ownership, but I like Atlanta batters to fill out the chalk portions of my lineups.

Next. MLB DFS Pitching Primer - Monday, April 28. dark

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