MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday 4/29 – Wheels up!

MLB DFS Pitching: Monday, April 29

Welcome back to the Monday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

We have a 9-game slate on tap tonight, which means 18 pitchers taking the hill for their respective teams. I’m only to suggest five pitchers today, and I am usually pretty picky when it comes to pitchers I’ll endorse.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

I am going to change up the format of this article today and try to go into a little more detail with each of my pitching selections. I’ll still include pitchers from each pricing tier and my
gas can of the night.” I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Micheal Wacha vs. Patrick Corbin (-150)

Frankie Montas vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (-140)

Tanner Roark vs. Zach Wheeler (-150)

Mike Soroka (-145) vs. Nick Margevicius

Kyle Freeland vs. Zach Davies (-130)

Justin Verlander (-180) vs. Jake Odorizzi

John Means vs. Manny Banuelos (-140)

Ryne Stanek (opener) vs. Brad Keller

Kenta Maeda (-150) vs. Jeff Samardzija

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Justin Verlander (11.3k FD, 10.8k DK) @ Minnesota

2019 Season Stats: 4-0, 38 innings pitched, ERA 2.61, SIERA 3.52, xFIP 3.51, K rate 30.5%

Verlander has been every bit as good as he was last year, for the most part, to start this season. His only bad start came early in April against Texas, and since then he’s reeled off three excellent outings in which he’s allowed only one run each time out. These have not been cupcake matchups either, as he faced Seattle, Texas again, and then this Twins team last time out.

JV’s numbers look good in every category other than groundball rate (34%) and hard contact (44%) and these are areas that he’s always struggled with. He is a fly ball pitcher and because he still throws hard (usually sitting 95-96 on his fastball) the ball is going to get hit hard when hitters do make contact.

Minnesota isn’t an ideal matchup at first glance as they have the lowest K-rate on the slate at 17.9% and some pretty talented hitters. However, JV has shown that he can dominate any lineup and handled these Twins hitters in his last start. The Twinkies stats might be a little inflated so far this season as they’ve been feasting on some bad pitching early on with several series against Baltimore and Toronto.

I expect Verlander to pitch well here on the road and I see no reason to fade him in cash games. Locking him into cash lineups is really the first thing you should do when making those lineups.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot

Patrick Corbin (9.7k FD, 10.2k DK) vs. St. Louis

2019 Season Stats: 32.2 innings pitched, 2.38 ERA, 3.16 SIERA, 3.48 xFIP, 30.7% K rate 

Corbin has the toughest matchup of any of these guys I’m writing up today as St. Louis is loaded with right-handed bats that will make you pay for mistakes. However, you simply can’t ignore the potential that Corbin brings to the table every time out. His slider has been one of the best out pitches in the league since last year and he continues to hammer hitters with it around 40% of the time.

His hard contact rate against righties is alarming (39.8%) when you consider that he’s facing Goldschmidt, Martinez, DeJong, Molina, and Ozuna in the middle of that lineup. But the matchup should also keep his ownership low. A pitcher who strikes out 30% of his opponents and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any start is going to gain my attention regardless of his opponent. Corbin isn’t walking hitters either, sporting a tidy 1.65 BB/9, which is the best of the five pitchers I’m recommending today.

Don’t just cross him off due to the matchup, he’s an elite pitcher and worth consideration tonight!

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot

Mike Soroka (9.2k FD, 8.6k DK) vs. San Diego

2019 Season Stats: 10.2 innings pitched, 1.69 ERA, 3.67 SIERA, 3.02 xFIP, 26.5% K rate 

Soroka has made only two starts for the Braves this season, but he’s pitched really well in those outings with the only real red flag being the high walk rate (4.2 BB/9). He’s a groundball pitcher who already shown that with a 55% GB rate.

I don’t expect him to keep up the 10.9 K/9 pace as far as strikeouts go, but things do line up really well for him tonight as he faces off against a Padres team that is striking out 27% of the time and has the third lowest wOBA of any offense on the slate.

The FanDuel price is a bit steep as Wheeler is 600 cheaper, but the DK price is cheap enough that I will entertain it. The real issue here is how deep will he pitch into this game? Having not made it through 6 innings yet in either outing doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in me. However, it’s not like he’s a converted reliever like John Means, he’s fully capable of pitching efficiently enough to make it into the 7th, but he has to cut those walks down.

As I’ll mention later, I love the Braves offense tonight so I expect Soroka to get a ton of run support. We really just need him to get through six innings relatively unscathed for the quality start and win (crucial points on FanDuel) while not walking too many guys (walks penalized on DK).

MLB DFS Pitching: Top GPP Option

Zach Wheeler (8.6k FD, 9.3k DK) vs. Cincinnati

2019 Season Stats: 29.2 innings, 4.85 ERA, 4.22 SIERA, 3.86 xFIP, 26% K rate

So your first reaction might be, “wait this guy has the worst stats of any pitcher so far, so why is he the top option?” Well, the answer is multi-fold here but it has a lot to do with his price, matchup, and some underlying indicators that show he’s a better pitcher than he’s shown so far.

Let’s start with the bad. His walk rate is troubling as he’s currently sitting at 4.25 BB/9, however, 7 of those walks came in one game against the Nationals and his ERA paid dearly as he allowed 7 earned runs in only four and two-thirds innings. His walk rate last year was only around 8% so I think that one game is inflating his walk totals quite a bit.

He’s primarily a ground ball pitcher, getting over half of his outs that way. However, he showed some serious K upside in his last start, striking out 11 Phillies over seven scoreless frames. I don’t think he’s a double-digit K pitcher on most nights, but I definitely like the fact that he seems to be rounding into form and gets a matchup with a Reds team that been striking out 25% of the time so far this season.

Wheeler’s strength is inducing soft contact and getting ground balls; He throws hard and mixes in a slider and heavy sinker. He’s really tough on righties, with lefties having significantly better numbers against him. He’s pitching at home in a good pitching environment and he already does a pretty good job keeping the ball in the yard. I expect him to pitch really well tonight and on FanDuel I think he may be the best bang for your buck based on his salary there.

MLB DFS Pitching: DraftKings SP2

John Means (7k both sites) @ Chicago White Sox

2019 Season Stats: 20.2 innings pitched, 1.74 ERA, 3.66 SIERA, 4.18 xFIP, 26.7% K rate

We have another pitcher in the same matchup that they succeeded in their last start here as Means pitched very effectively against Chicago last week, allowing only one run on four hits and walk while striking out six. It would be very lazy analysis to just say “use Means again in the same spot because he pitched well the last time,” though wouldn’t it?

I’ve been on Means since the Orioles first started using him a starter back against Oakland a few weeks ago. He was pitching so well out of their bullpen they had to consider moving him into the rotation and you could argue he’s been the best pitcher on their entire staff so far this year (which is impressive for him, and downright depressing for the rest of the staff).

There are some numbers that really stand out here on Means that grab my attention, and I’m well aware that we are dealing with a really small sample size here. He’s allowed a crazy low 19% hard contact while also striking out over a batter per inning and walking no more than one batter in any appearance or start. He’s also carrying a 14% swinging strike rate.

He’s doesn’t throw that hard (91-92 MPH fastball) but has been incredibly effective with his changeup that he is throwing almost 40% of the time. Against a Chicago team that strikes out nearly 25% of the time against lefties this season (and whiffed 9 times against Matt Boyd yesterday in 6 innings), Means has a ton of appeal even as his price has risen a bit. He’s getting stretched out and could possibly pitch deeper than five innings in this one if he works efficiently. He might just be the best value of any pitcher on the slate!

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can of the Night

Nick Margevicius vs. Atlanta

2019 Season Stats: 25 innings pitched, ERA 3.60, SIERA 4.19, xFIP 4.27, K rate 22%

You might be wondering by looking at his stats, “why is this guy a gas can?” Well, the rookie lefty has only made five major league starts this season, pitching five frames in each. The SIERA and xFIP indicators show us that his ERA is too low for how’s he pitched and if you dig a little deeper you’ll see that his swinging strike rate of 9% means that his 22% K rate is also likely unsustainable.

Now, consider that he’s throwing his fastball an average of 88 MPH and really using only one other pitch, a slider, which he throws about 79 MPH. I’m just not sure how he’s going to continue to get big league hitters out using those two pitches. There are a ton of advanced stats you can dig into with pitchers, but I found it compelling that 33% of the balls put in play off him have had exit velocities of 95 MPH or higher. His 34.8% hard contact rate also suggests that hitters striking the ball well when they hit it.

The Braves are an offense that can destroy left-handed pitching. They were my top target yesterday against Tyler Anderson and came through with 8 runs in that game and 3 homers off Anderson. A soft-tossing lefty like Margevicius stands little chance against this solid lineup of hitters and he’s shown reverse splits tendency so far which means the lefties are firmly in play, too (NEVER SKIP FREDDIE FREEMAN WHEN STACKING BRAVES AGAINST LEFTIES!)

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Verlander and Means, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Wheeler and Soroka/Means.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. Verlander
2. Wheeler
3. Corbin
4. Means (SP2)

GPP Rankings

1. Wheeler
2. Corbin
3. Verlander
4. Soroka (SP2)
5. Means (SP2)

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!