Fantasy Football 2019: Rookie mock draft for dynasty leagues

With the NFL Draft in the books, it’s time to take another shot at picking rookies for our dynasty leagues using a 12-team format.

About three weeks ago we took a look at the top 36 rookies for dynasty fantasy football in a three-round rookie mock draft. In a sense that exercise was being done in the dark, without knowing where those players might land – which determines what offense they’ll be in, how they might be utilized, and who their surrounding cast will be.

While the draft order was based off of numerous articles, insights from industry gurus like Matt Waldman, and what I had seen of the players myself, we always get the best information about players from the draft itself, as it shows what capital an NFL franchise is willing to invest in the talent of a player. Further, the more a team has invested in a player, the more likely it is that a player is going to get several chances to step into a key role on that team.

That said, a player being drafted lower than analysts thought he would be drafted is no death knell; it can sometimes be a result of a player not fitting a particular scheme, or certain positions being devalued across the board, or for a host of other reasons. So while the draft certainly alters one’s rankings, it should not turn them upside down. If you valued a player highly pre-draft, they might be docked some if their landing spot was not ideal or because of their draft slot, but they should not fall off the map.

Finally, as a reminder, these rankings are based on FFPC dynasty league scoring, which is PPR with 1.5 PPR for tight ends, so the tight ends will be a bit higher in my rankings than in a league that does not use tight end premium scoring.

Round 1

1.1 – Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders – He jumped from 1.3 up to 1.1 due to the draft capital the Raiders invested, and due to the situation. The job is wide open for him to grab, as Isaiah Crowell should not stand in the way of him getting the vast majority of the touches.

1.2 – N’Keal Harry, WR, Patriots – This is just a wonderful landing spot for him, and it bumped him up several spots as a result. Since the Patriots did not draft a tight end replacement for Gronk, Harry could be asked to do a lot of similar things in the passing game.

1.3 – A.J. Brown, WR, Titans – Many are also down on Brown due to this landing spot, and of course it would have been preferable for Brown to land on a better offense. But he has no one preventing him from playing every snap, and Mariota has showed flashes. He should grab a ton of targets and catches.

1.4 – T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions – Supremely talented and drafted early, the only downside is that the Lions have historically not been good for tight end scoring. I think Hockenson changes that.

1.5 – Parris Campbell, WR, Colts – What a perfect landing spot for him. He gets to study how to be a wide receiver under TY Hilton, just like Hilton got to study under Reggie Wayne, and just like Wayne got to study under Marvin Harrison. Oh, and Andrew Luck is his quarterback.

1.6 – David Montgomery, RB, Bears – The Bears traded up to get him, and then head coach Matt Nagy said he was very similar to his former back Kareem Hunt. Montgomery should become the starter relatively quickly and will be given every chance at early down work.

1.7 – Noah Fant, TE, Broncos – Flacco loves to throw to tight ends, and after investing a first-round pick in him, they will work to get him the ball and help him succeed.

1.8 – D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks – Metcalf fell four spots from the last mock to this one, and the reason is due less to landing spot than to changes in how I view him as a talent over the past few weeks. He needs a good bit of development; if he improves as a route runner in time, he could become a stud.

1.9 – Hakeem Butler, WR, Cardinals – Many are down on Butler after he “fell” to the first pick of the fourth round. I personally was shocked he went this low, but the flip side is that he landed in an amazing offense. Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense will be airing it out a ton, and Butler should be a top receiver in the league within a year or two based on talent. He is still one of the top talents in this draft, but you can get him in the second of rookie drafts, so no need to rank him at the top.

1.10 – Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles – Many have Sanders much higher in their rankings. Sanders is very talented, but Doug Pederson is just a bit too interested in running back platoons to completely trust that Sanders will get loads of touches. If Sanders becomes a workhorse back, he deserves to be at the very top of this board, but that seems unlikely.

1.11 – Andy Isabella, WR, Cardinals – Here is an example of a player pushing way up the draft board from our previous mock due to when and to whom he was drafted. He lands in a wonderful spot for fantasy relevance, and clearly the Cardinals love him, even picking him well ahead of Hakeem Butler. He should learn from and then replace Larry Fitzgerald in the slot.

1.12 – Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers – This is another player many have higher. Samuel is very similar to Golden Tate, so he should do quite well in the slot in this offense, but he is fighting George Kittle for similar targets, and he is not likely to become a fantasy superstar.