Kentucky Derby 2019: Let’s break down what horse you should bet on

Favorites have ruled the Run for the Roses in recent years, but not this year

Saturday marks the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby and, likely, the 149th revision of my selections since the Road to the Derby began in September.

Although the original field contained 20 of the best 3-year-old colts and geldings in the country, presently only 19 will run. Both the pre-race favorite, Omaha Beach, and Haikal were scratches, while Bodexpress, who is still a maiden (winless), drew into Saturday’s main even at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

So, rather than analyze the Run for the Roses horse by horse — a process more tedious than watching reality TV for insightful commentary about anything — I’ve decided to place the most likely Derby entrants into two categories:

Horses that can win.
Horses even Al Michaels couldn’t make a decent case for.
I’ll do this by discussing some historically significant trends and statistics. Let’s start with recent form.

Form matters

As you might expect, being in peak condition on the first Saturday in May is paramount. Horses that finished out of the money (fourth or worse), beaten by more than five lengths, in their final prep are zip-for-74 in the Kentucky Derby since 1992. The last horse to wear the roses after such a finish was Iron Liege in 1957 — and that’s the year Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line aboard Gallant Man, likely costing that colt the win (Gallant Man had previously been beaten a nose by Bold Ruler in the Wood Memorial).

Given this, I think we can safely eliminate WAR OF WILL and LONG RANGE TODDY from further consideration.