Kentucky Derby 2019: Let’s break down what horse you should bet on

Against all odds

Another hallmark of Kentucky Derby winners is they are fairly precocious. As a result, surprising prep-race performances generally aren’t repeated in Louisville.

Horses that went to post at odds of 15-1 or greater in their last race have completed the Kentucky Derby exacta just twice since 1992 — and the last such horse to visit the Churchill Downs winner’s circle was Dust Commander in 1970.

This eliminates PLUS QUE PARFAIT (15-1 in the UAE Derby, according to the bookmakers), BY MY STANDARDS (22-1, Louisiana Derby) and BODEXPRESS (71-1, Florida Derby).

Versatility is important

The unique distance of the Kentucky Derby (1 ¼ miles) demands versatility. While horses have won the roses from both on and off the pace — even far off the pace — very few one-dimensional closers have posed for pictures in the Derby winner’s circle.  In fact, 41 of the past 52 Kentucky Derby champs (78.8 percent) were leading or within five lengths of the lead at the first call in their final prep.

This includes Street Sense and Mine That Bird, both of whom rallied from 19th after the opening half-mile to win the roses in 2007 and 2009, respectively.

While I wouldn’t necessarily toss the following horses, I would view them with a certain degree of skepticism: TACITUS, TAX, WIN WIN WIN and COUNTRY HOUSE.