MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 1 – Keep it on the down Lowe
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate saw Gerrit Cole dominate the Twins with a slate leading 40 fantasy points on the back of 11 K’s at sub 20% ownership due to the concerns in Minnesota while a late night Dodgers stack came through in a big way with 10 runs against the Giants with HR’s from Justin Turner, David Freese and Enrique Hernandez.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Breakdown:
We get a nice 5 game Early Slate on Wednesday with no weather concerns and the roof closed in Chase Field so we should be able to play this slate straight up.
What stands out to me at first glance is that this early slate has some big time offensive potential with two games having 10+ IRT’s and conversely we do not have a ton of pitching options that feel like must plays. With that context, I think this becomes a slate where you build backwards – lock in the bats you want first and work your way into the pitchers.
The Boston Red Sox have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.28 with Mike Fiers on the hill in Fenway Park, a reverse splits right-hander who since the start of 2018, is giving up a .210 ISO, 44% fly ball rate and 40% HC to RHB and he will have to navigate a red-hot Mookie Betts ($10.8K) who is 12-24 with 6 doubles and 2 HR’s in his last six games. On a short slate like this, the duo of Betts and J.D. Martinez ($9.1K) will likely be popular but they make for a scary fade.
The Rangers/Pirates will likely be a popular stacking spot early today with a 10 IRT game total, but rather than eat that chalk, especially with a talented arm like Jameson Taillon in that game, I would rather pivot to a high upside Tampa Bay Rays stack in GPP’s.
The Rays line-up is dangerous top to bottom with a projected line-up that has a .200+ ISO and 46% HC rate this season against RHP which could spell trouble for Jakob Junis who has given up 4 or more runs in three of his last four starts.
Junis has really struggled with lefties in 2019, with a 2.5 HR/9 rate and .273 ISO and this Rays line-up has four lefties in it with massive power upside – Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Kevin Kiermaier and recent call-up Nate Lowe. The right-handed power here in Tommy Pham and Yandy Diaz may get over-looked but there is merit to going with a 6 man Rays stack here early as this line-up not only has immense power but they profile exceptionally well against Junis pitch type.
Junis relies heavily on his slider to the RHB, throwing it well over 40% of the time, and Pham has a .246 ISO and 47% HC rate against that pitch type while Diaz has an 85% contact rate against that pitch. Against the lefties, all of Brandon Lowe, Choi and Kiermaier have 300+ average distance traveled against the slider with Kiermaier sporting a team high .232 ISO mark against it. Flip to the sinker and Lowe (.273 ISO) and Choi (.396 ISO) both hammer this pitch from RHP so no matter which pitch type you drill into, there is a standout on either side of the plate here.
My gut instinct is that the Red Sox/A’s and Rangers/Pirates are where the ownership lands today but I would argue that from a pure upside perspective, this Rays team has the ability to match anything those other offenses can offer.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Arms:
You know during March Madness how the term “Survive and Advance” is quite popular? Well, when picking your early slate arms today, I think that term certainly applies as I simply do not love any arm but I also recognize there are clearer paths than others.
Masahiro Tanaka ($18.6K) is the top priced arm in Chase Field against Arizona with a 25% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate so while he seems “safe,” this is also an arm that has given up 5 ER in two of his last three starts.
Carlos Rodon ($18K) is a step down in price but arguably has the higher upside with a 28.6% K rate and 12% swinging strike rate and will face an Orioles team with a 24% K rate against LHP since the start of 2018.
Rodon is the largest favorite on the slate at -176 and Baltimore has the lowest IRT of any team on the early which puts Rodon in SP1 cash game territory and I think on this slate, even if you use Rodon, you put #FreeSquare Stevie Wilkerson ($4.7K) in your line-ups as a one-off to help you pay for all the bats you want.
Rather than go with Tanaka here, I would look to the other side with Merrill Kelly ($14.9K) who will face a watered down Yankee line-up without the DH in Chase Field. We saw last night with Zack Greinke the benefit of getting this AL pitchers in the batters box as Greinke got 2 K’s from opposing starter CC Sabathia which gives you some built-in K equity right off the bat.
Kelly has flashed upside already this year with a 9 K outing against the Red Sox where he dropped 31 fantasy points and his 24% K rate against RHB this year should work well against a Yankee line-up that may only have 1-2 LHB in it today.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview
Please note this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play lineup.
SP: Carlos Rodon
SP: Merrill Kelly
IF: Brandon Lowe
IF: Nate Lowe
IF: Ji-Man Choi
OF: Mookie Betts
OF: JD Martinez
OF: Tommy Pham
UTIL: Yandy Diaz
UTIL: Stevie Wilkerson
Slate Overview: This slate is all about the bats and finding the arms you can stomach to survive and personally, outside of Tanaka/Rodon/Kelly – I would avoid the rest of the arms on the slate. The goal with your arms today is to simply survive and I think you can pay up for them (with the Stevie Wilkerson free square as a salary off-set) to help you stack the big bats you want.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Breakdown:
Remember the Early Slate that had no pitching – yeah, that is not a problem on the Main Slate as we have a ton of aces including Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber and Aaron Nola all taking the mound and a whole lot of value bats to afford two of them.
Let’s start with the bats because if you want to pay up for arms, you need value stacks and guess where I am going – right back to the Dodgers against Madison Bumgarner in San Francisco.
Mad Bum is certainly not a bad pitcher but let’s not pretend this is the elite arm from years ago as he is still giving up a 40% plus HC rate with a 42% rate to RHB. As I said yesterday with the Dodgers against Drew Pomeranz, this was not about picking on Pomeranz or in this case Bumgarner – it is about a massively under-priced Dodgers line-up that has five players with .200+ ISO marks against LHP if you go from 2017 to the end of 2018.
This becomes a talent/pricing argument over ballpark/opposing arm and I am fine going right back to the Dodgers right-handed value – Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, David Freese and Justin Turner and you can round out the stack with the low-owned L/L match-ups of Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager. Belly was 2% owned in GPP’s last night and my guess is that will be the high water mark as folks will once again balk at paying slate high pricing for him in a L/L spot in a pitchers park.
Here again is why I love the Dodgers – I can go with a full 6 man stack with the bats noted here – pay up for the top two arms on the slate in Mad Max and deGrom and I still have $7.6K for the last two bats in my line-up.
Again, this is where you are betting on the talent and sure Scherzer has a tougher match-up against a strong Cardinals team and deGrom has been struggling – but you have the opportunity here to get two arms with 30% K rates, arguably the top two arms in all of baseball and still stack up an elite offense like the Dodgers.
So can you drop down and get Corey Kluber in Marlins Park or Aaron Nola at home against the Tigers – of course, but I would argue the salary savings are not needed when you consider the value that exists in the Dodgers stack.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play lineup.
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SP: Max Scherzer
SP: Jacob deGrom
IF: Justin Turner
IF: David Freese
IF: Corey Seager
OF: Cody Bellinger
OF: Chris Taylor
OF: Enrique Hernandez
UTIL: Travis Shaw
UTIL: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Slate Overview: The Main Slate tonight feels so much like last night and I intend to attack it the same way. I do not see any “must have offenses” that are worth prioritizing so why not stack the talent level of the Dodgers at bargain basement pricing and pay up for both arms? I took this approach last night with the Dodgers stack and Bauer/Castillo and tonight I get even better arms with Scherzer/deGrom.
Listen, sometimes in DFS we get so bogged down in the stats and the trends etc – but what if I told you that you could take the two best arms in baseball and stack arguably the best offense in baseball alongside it – why are we over complicating it?
Good luck today all!
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