MLB Bets – Thursday May 2 – Can Colorado Crush Milwaukee Again?
By John Fazio
Good day and welcome back. The Rockies piled up runs at Milwaukee yesterday. MLB Bets says they win again today.
Using 1 unit as a base and allowing for the lay and take, MLB Bets is now plus 23.80 on the season. A rough Baltimore game, both in the first 5 innings and in the game, made us a fractional loser yesterday and the day before a crazy beat in the Texas game prevented us from being a 2 unit winner.
Such is the nature of gambling – it’s been mostly good but it was not fun being a part of those two brutal games. It really is a shame we didn’t advance these last 2 days. The system seems to be on the right track, however, so here we go with more. All bets valid even with pitching changes. All times Eastern.
San Diego (+1.15) knocks off Atlanta, 12:10 pm
The Padres should be favored here according to MLB Bets. The pitching differential is too wide.
Matt Strahm takes the hill for San Diego posting a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. The only bad start he has had this season was the first one.
Mike Foltynewicz goes for Atlanta posting a 6.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. He’s been all or nothing, sometimes showing good form and then very erratic in others. That said, Atlanta is 1-6 in his last 7 home starts and 1-9 in his last 10 tries against the National League West.
As for the Padres, they are 10-4 against a right-hander on the road. Away from home has not been a negative this year.
Overall Strahm is the better bet and the team is better overall than it has been in many years. At least so far. And since we are going game by game, the ‘now’ is the only time frame that matters.
MLB Bets To Win – Reds topple New York
Cincinnati (+1.60) upsets the Mets, 12:10 pm
The Reds inched by New York yesterday. They seem to have just enough to be a profitable team.
The starting pitchers on tap for Thursday have the makings of a wild affair. Cincinnati seems to be trading wins and losses, so as long as they are getting high plus odds, the strategy will be to continue on them.
MLB Bets looks at this game as more of a pick than either side being a large favorite. The Mets have a better overall record but the Reds have done better in the last 10 games than New York.
Both pitchers in their last 3 starts have left a lot to be desired. Tyler Mahle has an ERA approaching 7 and Noah Syndergaard has an ERA of over 8. Both teams have a 1 run victory in this series.
The strategy here is to take the team getting at least +1.50 in a game that looks as if it should be a pick. In this case that team is Cincinnati.
Colorado (+1.07) downs the Brewers, 1:10 pm
The Rockies pounded their way to a win yesterday. With Jon Gray back on the mound, Colorado is on track to win again.
Gray had a brutal game in his last appearance but all his other starts have been quality. Even with getting shelled, the Rockies are 3-0 in his last 3 starts. The bats are coming alive and Miller Park provides a great venue for more.
The Brew Crew sends Freddy Peralta to the hill showing a 7.13 ERA. He had one great game at Cincinnati tossing 8 innings allowing no runs, yet you can tell how bad the other games were to get his ERA that high.
Gray does pitch up to the competition as Colorado is 5-1 in away games against winning teams. Even as only a small dog the Rockies are the value play.
MLB Bets To Win -White Sox stop the Red Sox
Chicago (+1.61) can handle Boston, 8:10 pm
Anyone giving this game a quick look would like Boston. MLB Bets likes Chicago.
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David Price is beginning to pitch very well and puts the Red Sox in a good position of having to score just a small amount of runs to win. That’s been missing with them for a while.
Lucas Giolito has been up and down but mostly down recently, although the White Sox overall are 2-2 when he starts and Boston is 2-3 when Price starts. Both Boston and Chicago have won 6 of their last 10 games, but Boston is 6-10 on the road while Chicago is 7-7 at home.
Even though this game ‘feels’ like it should go easily to Boston, and public sentiment in the form of wagers certainly concurs, these small nuances are tilting MLB Bets on the home dog. Betting against Boston in this game will not be the popular thing to do, but hopefully will be the profitable way to go.
St Louis (+1.46) beats Washington again, 4:05 pm
The Cardinals are a late addition to the play list from MLB Bets. They are in a negative starting pitcher formation but they have controlled this series and the odds are too high to give to this quality team. The system says try the Cardinals again.
MLB Bets Recap For Thursday May 2nd:
San Diego +1.15
Cincinnati +1.60
Colorado +1.07
White Sox +1.61
St Louis +1.46
Here’s to quality underdogs and the quality of life they can bring. See you back here tomorrow.
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