MLB DFS – Love, Like, Leave – 5/2 – Charlie and the Win Factory
By Jacob Zook
MLB DFS – Love, Like, Leave – 5/2
Welcome to the first ever episode of Love, Like, Leave, a brand new segment here at FantasyCPR! Since this is the first time any of you will be coming across this article, allow me to explain. I know MLB DFS can be confusing. There’s a ton of options at every position, and it’s hard to break a slate down into a coherent lineup. That’s where I come in!
Love, Like, Leave is an article specifically designed to give you a clearer picture of each particular slate. It will do this by providing you with three different players at each position. The first player is one that I “love”, which means he is my favorite play at that position. The second player is one that I “like”, who is usually in a good matchup in a position of lower ownership. Finally, the last player is one that you should “leave”. This player won’t be in any of my DFS lineups.
Each day, I will break down the MLB slate in this way, using a collection of advanced stats, such as xWOBA, ISO, and a few others. I will also consider the matchup, park, recent form, and a smattering of other factors, with the goal of providing you with the most accurate advice possible.
Finally, as one last challenge to myself each day, I will be attempting to call a hitter who will go yard. I will be keeping a running record of how I am doing in this regard, with a called home run counting as a win, and a failed home run call counting as a loss. While this is nothing more than a bit of fun, it may help keep track of the success of the picks.
Now, by this point in the life of DFS, we know that it isn’t an exact science. A fantastic play can always bust, and a horrible play can always explode for a huge night. In fact, it’s this variance that makes DFS so wildly entertaining and challenging. Hopefully, however; reading this article provides you with valuable insight into each slate, and allows you to inch ever closer to that elusive GPP takedown!
Without further adieu, let’s jump right into the inaugural episode of Love, Like, Leave!
MLB DFS – Love, Like, Leave – 5/2
Starting Pitcher
Love
Charlie Morton (9,000 DK): Morton has gotten off to another great start this year, going 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA through his first six starts. He gets a middling matchup against a Kansas City team that has a few impact bats but also strikes out a lot. Morton possesses a 10.7 K/9 this season, which is right in line with his 10.8 K/9 from last season. Look for Morton to keep rolling today.
Like
Mike Foltynewicz (7,800 DK): Folty made his season debut last week, giving up 4ER in 6+ IP with 5K’s. While those numbers don’t pop off the page, they don’t tell the whole story. Foltynewicz breezed through the first six innings before allowing 3 straight hits to begin the seventh. He then got pulled and sat on the bench as the Atlanta bullpen blew his lead. He gets a softer matchup against San Diego today, and with the first start rust shaken off, I think he goes the same length, but without the late game blowout.
Leave
Noah Syndergaard (9,400 DK): Thor, is that you? I almost couldn’t tell. Syndergaard has been a huge disappointment through his first six starts, stumbling to a 6.35 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP. While the strikeouts haven’t gone anywhere(10.3 K/9), I don’t think Thor can limit baserunners enough against this Reds team. He’s just not safe enough for me to consider using, especially considering the options below him in price, which I think carry similar upside with less risk (See: above).
MLB DFS – Love, Like, Leave – 5/2
First Baseman
Love
Daniel Murphy (4,400 DK): Fresh off of a fractured finger, Murphy has been hot, hitting both his home runs since his April 24 return. While he doesn’t get the friendly home confines of Coors, playing in Miller Park is a pretty good consolation prize. Peralta is a mixed bag. The talent is there, but the execution doesn’t seem to be, and he’s already allowed five homers this year. Murphy gets to play in the heart of a potent Rockies lineup that is getting very, very hot. This could be a huge game for the first baseman.
Like
Eric Thames (4,900 DK): On the other side of the diamond, Eric Thames gets an intriguing lefty on righty matchup against Jon Gray. Gray is a very capable pitcher and is usually good outside of Coors, so I’m banking on ownership flooding away from the Brewers. Thames has a career BAbip of .327 against right-handed starters, and if Thames can put a couple of balls into play today, one of them could easily leave the park.
Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman (4,800 DK)
Leave
Pete Alonso (5,300 DK): This isn’t anything against Alonso. The rookie is having a phenomenal start to the season, mashing to the tune of an absurd 1.005 OPS with 9 homers. I just think ownership may flock to him in a perceived soft matchup against Mahle, so I am going to avoid him, and spend that extra cash elsewhere. I don’t think anybody would fault you for playing him, least of all me, but I will be fading Alonso today.
MLB DFS – Love, Like, Leave – 5/2
Second Baseman
Love
Ozzie Albies (4,900 DK): Albies has followed up a fantastic season with another great start, hitting .296 with six homers. In his last ten games, he has hit .325 with a slugging percentage of .725. He’s also getting on base at a high clip this season, gathering ten walks in thirty games. He’s been batting out of the leadoff spot recently, allowing him to score more runs, and with 8 RBI in his last 10 games, it doesn’t seem as if the RBI production is going anywhere. Continue to ride the Crazy Train with Ozzy Ozzie.
Like
Mike Moustakas (4,500 DK): For many of the same reasons as Thames, Moose is also in play for me today. He hit a homer yesterday, giving him 8 on the season. Miller Park is a fantastic park for power hitters, and I think Moustakas jumps on a Gray fastball and takes him yard. This is a great chance to get Moose at low ownership, in a game that I think could go to each team’s bullpen very early. HOME RUN
Leave
Whit Merrifield (4,600 DK): Even though his 30+ game hit streak has come to an end, Merrifield quietly remains one of the better hitters in the entire league. He can do it all, hitting for average, power, and even throwing in a dash of speed. That being said, I like Morton too much in this spot to play anybody against him. Merrifield may be a good one-off play to try to capitalize on what is likely going to be high ownership on Morton, but not for me.
MLB DFS – Love, Like, Leave – 5/2
Shortstop
Love
Dansby Swanson (4,200 DK): While Swanson isn’t quite a household name, he has quietly hit 6 homers this year, with a .263 average and a .882 OPS. Stacking Atlanta against Strahm is one of my favorite ways to build a roster today. With Mondesi, Story, and Correa filling out the top of the board, I’m jumping down to Swanson to save some salary.
Like
Manny Machado (3,900 DK): 3,900? For Manny Machado? I don’t care if Cy Young is taking the mound against him, that price is far too low, plain and simple. Foltynewicz is a good pitcher, and should succeed in this spot, but Machado is simply too cheap. I know he’s had a rough start, but he remains one of the elite hitters in all of baseball. If his pricing stays this low, keep rostering him, and watch him catapult you into contention.
Leave
Trevor Story (5,000 DK): Every Colorado bat is in play today, but I will be keeping Story away from my lineups. Even though his price isn’t crazy at 5,000, shortstop is thin today, and I think people flock to Story, the safest bat, in droves. This gives us a chance to pivot down, and get another great bat at a discounted price, and at heavily discounted ownership. A lot of DFS is in the leverage plays, and I think shortstop is a great spot for that today.
MLB DFS – Love, Like, Leave – 5/2
Third Baseman
Love
Yandy Diaz (4,700 DK): Squaring off against Danny Duffy, Diaz gets a plus matchup. He’s been relatively hot lately, gathering 5 multi-hit games in his last 11 appearances, not including yesterday’s doubleheader. He carries a very respectable .918 OPS on the season as well. Look for Diaz to continue driving in runs behind on-base machine Tommy Pham.
Like
Nick Senzel (3,800 DK): As of the time of writing this article, Senzel’s call-up is still up in the air. It could happen as early as today against Syndergaard. Talk about getting thrown into the fire. Much like the Mother of Dragons, however; I don’t think Senzel gets burned. Since Vlad got called up, he is my favorite 2019 impact bat that still isn’t it the majors. I’m looking for Senzel to hit the ground running and not look back, all the way to an NLROY title.
Leave
Alex Bregman (4,400 DK): This was a hard column to write for the third basemen, as there is an argument to be made for rostering any of the top 10 priced bats on DK at third base today. Bregman, however; has the weakest argument. He gets a tough righty versus righty matchup against Minnesota ace Jose Berrios. Steer clear of Bregman today, he’s not worth the risk.
MLB DFS – Love, Like, Leave – 5/2
Outfielders
Love
Tommy Pham (4,900 DK): As I said, Tommy Pham gets on base… a lot! He carries an OPS of .406 on the season, and he has an amazing 16.8% walk rate to go along with an 81.4% contact rate. Once on base, Pham is a threat to steal as well, gathering 6 during this young season. Pairing him with Diaz is a great way to get a Tampa Bay mini-stack.
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Like
Charlie Blackmon (4,600 DK): I couldn’ live with myself if I didn’t write up at least one more Rockies bat today. Don’t think this play is just to hit a Colorado quota though. Blackmon is absolutely on fire, gathering an OPS north of 1.1 over his last dozen games. He’s hit three home runs in that stretch as well. I’m looking for the Rockies to beat up on Peralta, and it all starts with Blackmon.
Leave
Ryan Braun (4,200 DK): As much as I’m on board for the Brewers bats today, Braun is not one of them. He has a horrid .154/.236/.262 slash line in the last twenty games, and has sat on the bench for the last few games as a result. Even if he plays, he won’t be part of any of my stacks, and I think he should be on a DFS DNP list for the time being.
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