DFS MLB Love, Like, Leave – 5/3 – It’s Senzel Time

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/3

Love, Like, Leave is a DFS segment that breaks down the slate into three main options at each position; a “love”, a “like”, and a “leave”. The love is my favorite play, the like is another good play, and the leave is one I would rather not have in my lineup.

Welcome back to another edition of DFS MLB Love, Like, Leave. This is the second-ever episode, and starting today, I will break down my results from the previous day. Ideally, this will let me improve, as over time I can see where I went wrong in judgment, and slowly fix those errors.

Yesterday was a mixed bag. Thor managed to pitch a complete-game, 10K shutout, so I was way off on that one. Morton pitched well though, and I was also able to nail some of my bats. Swanson, Machado, Moustakas, and Blackmon all had good games, and Trevor Story didn’t live up to his price tag. All in all, it was an alright first day. Perhaps not as good as I would have hoped for, but not a bad place to start nonetheless.

Unfortunately, Moustakas failed to go deep, bringing my home-run call record to an early 0-1. Hopefully, I can rectify that today, and start to go on a bit of a tear in the coming weeks.

We get a loaded 13 game slate tonight, with multiple aces taking the mound, like James Paxton and Clayton Kershaw. These big slates are always fun to predict since one low owned pitcher or bat can swing the entire slate

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/3

Starting Pitcher

Love

Clayton Kershaw (10,100 DK): Kershaw, fresh off an injury, is back and in mid-season form. He hasn’t pitched less than 6 innings in any of his three starts, giving up a maximum of two runs, while striking out 21. San Diego may have lit up Atlanta yesterday, but Kershaw is one of, if not the best, pitchers in the MLB, and when he’s in form like he is right now, the sky is the limit. Don’t get sneaky here, play the man.

Like

Kyle Gibson (6,700 DK): Now, you might be wondering how crazy someone would have to be to roster a mediocre pitcher against the Yankees in New York. If the Yankees even remotely resembled the team they can be, I’d agree. Unfortunately for Yanks fans though, the team has been decimated by the injury bug, losing Stanton, Judge, Gregorius, and more already this year. Gibson has fired off two consecutive quality starts and didn’t yield a walk in either start. If that trend continues, you could get one of the top scoring pitchers on the slate for a bargain of a price. Gibson isn’t the flashiest of starts, but rostering him allows you to plug-in some big bats.

Leave

Chris Sale (9,900 DK): Common sense and logic dictate that Chris Sale will eventually get back to his dominant self, but I’m not sold. The velocity issues continue to persist, his spin rate is down, and he’s simply not looking like the man he once was. He was lucky to come away from Tampa with a quality start, and even though he is still striking some people out, the elite hit and miss stuff just doesn’t work without the fastball. Maybe he does well today, maybe he doesn’t, but I’m not sticking around to find out.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/3

First Baseman

Love

Jose Abreu (4,600 DK): This play is mainly based around Chris Sale and his issues, but don’t sleep on Abreu. He’s hit .299 with a .879 OPS against righty starters in his career, and until Sale starts looking like his old self, we can continue to roster players against him at discounted prices and low ownership.

Like

Justin Smoak (4,600 DK): Mike Minor has been good this year. In fact, Mike Minor has been extremely good this year. I’m not letting that scare me away from Smoak, who has historically been slightly better against lefties than righties. This game is being played in Texas, where the ball likes to fly, and Smoak is my call to get a hold of one today. This play is home run or bust, and I think there’s a good chance for a home run. HOME RUN

Leave

Cody Bellinger (5,800 DK): I can already hear the masses screaming at me for recommending Bellinger stay off the roster. At 5,800 though, Bellinger is starting to approach starting pitcher prices, and if he doesn’t leave the park, he isn’t likely to pay that price off. Bellinger has been far and away the best hitter this year (sorry Yelich), but at that price, he handicaps the rest of your lineup. After rostering him, Gibson, and Kershaw, you’re only left with about 3,900 per player. I’m looking elsewhere for my power today.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/3

Second Baseman

Love

Brandon Lowe (4,800 DK): Lowe has been one of the biggest surprises of the young season, mashing to the tune of a .945 OPS with 7 homers. With Wendle out, Lowe figures to be cemented into the heart of a surprisingly potent Rays lineup. I love attacking Baltimore pitching, and Straily is no exception. Tampa Bay is one of my favorites stacks today, and it all starts with Lowe.

Like

Kike Hernandez (4,300 DK): Hernandez cooled off in a big way after a torrid start to the season, but he’s shown signs of life again, with multiple hits in 3 of the last 4 games. He remains one of the biggest split hitters in baseball, hitting for a .869 OPS against lefties, while only hitting for a .666 OPS against righties. The conclusion here is simple; if there is a lefty pitching, Kike can go in your roster. Lauer is a lefty, therefore Kike is in play.

Leave

Ketel Marte (5,400 DK): Look, I know Coors is as good a hitters park as they come, but I refuse to pay 5,400 for a player with a career OPS of .722. Marte is not one of the elite hitters in baseball, but because of Coors, he’s priced like one. If you are going to chase the Colorado air, be my guest, but I don’t care if they are playing on the moon, Marte for that price is a huge no-no for me.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/3

Shortstop

Love

Trevor Story (5,600 DK): Fresh off of telling you to avoid the high-priced bats at Coors, I’m going to go back on that advice and propose Trevor Story. Story is by far the most expensive bat I’m considering today, but I’m a big fan of the matchup. Ray is a high K guy who struggles to limit baserunners, especially to walks. Story has proven he can hurt you on the base paths, stealing 7 bags this season, while also clubbing 8 homers, with 3 in his last 10 games. I think Story may go a little under-owned tonight, but I’m all in on him.

Like

Tim Anderson (4,700 DK): I will be tripling down on this articles assault of Chris Sale by suggesting Tim Anderson, who continues to pace the AL in batting average and stolen bases. While he’s cooled off a little recently, he is still snagging bags left, right, and center, and he has yet to be caught stealing. I’m going to make a bold prediction and say Sale goes less than 5 innings today. Please, Chris, don’t prove me wrong.

Leave

Elvis Andrus (5,100 DK): Another example of a bat that I think is overpriced due to the situation, Andrus is a slightly different case, as he does carry a fantastic .974 OPS on the season. Trent Thornton has been a mixed bag this season, but he’s only given up a middling 5HR in 28.1 innings (1.6 HR/9). I don’t think Andrus is a bad play, but once again, I think it’s prudent to look elsewhere. I think if you spend up at shortstop today, it has to be Story.

DFS MLB  – Love, Like, Leave – 5/3

Third Baseman

Love

Nick Senzel (3,800 DK): Finally, after what seems like forever, Nick Senzel is going to get his shot. I wrote him up yesterday against Thor, and with all signs pointing to a Friday debut, I love him against Beede today. It’s going to be rookie versus rookie, with both players playing in their first career game. I think Senzel gets the better of him, and for this price, you’re rarely ever going to find a better bat. While I don’t think he’s quite Acuna or Soto, Senzel can mash, and mash he will.

Like

Vlad Guerrero Jr. (4,200 DK): Slow start or not, Vladdy is still likely the best young bat in the entire MLB prospect system. He is simply phenomenal, possessing all the tools to succeed in a big way at the major league level. There’s going to be bumps in the road, but that’s all this slow start is. I’m doubling down on my Justin Smoak home run call and saying Vladdy joins in and makes it a dinger party. HOME RUN

Leave

None: Third base is a very interesting position for me today. None of the top bats pop out to me as bad plays, and I can even understand paying up for Escobar at 5,500. I’m not sure why he’s the same price as Arenado, but there just isn’t a bad play at the top of this board. If I had to suggest one bat that I’m not the biggest fan of, it would be Donaldson at 4,600 against Urena in Miami, but even JD is a good play today. Roster whoever your favorite is, and don’t second guess it.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/3

Outfielders

Love

David Dahl (4,500 DK): Scrolling, scrolling, scrolling. Where is David Dahl? All the way priced down at 4,500, that’s where. For some reason, Dahl has missed the Coors price boost, even though he’s hitting a fantastic .333 with a .959 OPS. You won’t see me complaining, as I’ll gladly take the discount and roster him against Ray. It is lefty on lefty, which gives me some pause, but even if Ray gets the better of him, I don’t think he works very far into this game, and there’s always at-bats against the bullpen. I love Dahl in this spot at this price.

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Like

Lorenzo Cain (4,300 DK): Another player who seems underpriced to me, Lorenzo Cain is in a decent spot today, facing off against Matz and the Mets. With Yelich likely back in the lineup, Cain just got a boost in the runs scored department, and he’s another one of those guys who can wreak havoc on the base paths. Cain recently broke out of a mini-slump, and he has as good a shot as anybody to score a couple runs today.

Leave

Mitch Haniger (5,200 DK): Haniger has been mired in a slump recently, having only collected one hit in his last 21 at-bats. Shane Bieber is no slouch either, and he is proving why people were so high on him as a rookie last year. With the abundance of fantastic options in the outfield today, I think it’s best to stay away from Haniger.

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