MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 3 – Thank God it’s Fri-Ray!
Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
After taking Thursday off we are back with a big time Friday MLB DFS slate to dive into. I have to say, sometimes taking those smaller mid-week slates off is a nice way to re-set and take a breath in a long season like MLB.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Slate Breakdown:
Apologies for the later than usual and short Picks and Pivots but after dealing with a sick kid this morning, I was understandably delayed. Having had a chance to look through the slate now, what stands out to me is two things – pitching is loaded and there is an offense that I want to stack EVERYWHERE.
My gut instinct on this slate was to pay up for two arms on this slate and after reading our Pitching Primer by Thunder Dan, it just solidified my thinking. Rather than regurgitate the same stuff, go read this beast by Dan who goes deeper into this slates pitching than I could ever dream.
Now, in order to pay up for two arms – it is going to mean finding value and FantasyDraft has two “Free Squares” today that make for the ideal one-off plays which will open up roster construction for you in a big way.
Ian Kinsler ($4.6K) gets a tough match-up with Clayton Kershaw but after being moved into the lead-off spot yesterday, going 3-6 with a HR and 2 doubles – he has is now 5 for his last 9 and at this price point could pay off his tag with essentially any offensive production. Chris Davis ($5.4K) is a perpetual free square despite the fact he has gone for double-digit fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games and although the match-up with Tyler Glasnow is difficult, pairing Davis/Kinsler basically gives you the path to whatever you want on FantasyDraft.
The reason I am looking here initially is that I want to get two high K arms and then go all-in on a Tampa Bay Rays stack in Baltimore against Dan Straily. I am sure Straily is a pleasant fellow in real life, but let’s be honest – he is THE arm to pick on today and with a game in Coors Field, I hope the shiny high Colorado total keeps the Rays a tad under-owned.
Straily this season has a 6.75 ERA which is actually below 7.04 xFIP and 8+ FIP which suggests he has actually gotten lucky – hard to believe for an arm who has given up 7 HR’s in 18 innings of work. It is warm in Baltimore today (75 at first pitch) and while there is some rain concern, all that means is the bats could be even more risky and thus lower owned.
Straily on the season is giving up a .330 ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate with a 41% HC rate and 47% FB rate overall which is screaming for trouble – and behind him, is a bad Orioles bullpen that DFS players have picked on all year.
Look up and down this line-up – you have five batters in the projected line-up with .200+ ISO mark versus RHP this season and as a team, they have a .215 ISO and 44% HC rate. Now, this is also a team with a high GB rate, but this is when you want to attack that – take GB hitters against FB pitchers.
The Rays bats are not cheap – another reason why the stack may be a secondary route for many. From 1-7, the only bat below $8K is Nathanial Lowe ($7.5K) which is where the Kinsler/Davis duo becomes critical as you can unlock an expensive power stack like Tampa Bay alongside two top tier arms.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample line-up is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play line-up.
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IF: Yandy Diza
IF: Brandon Lowe
IF: Nate Lowe
OF: Tommy Pham
OF: Ji-Man Choi
OF: Avisail Garcia
UTIL: Ian Kinsler
UTIL: Chris Davis
Slate Overview: With so many options at pitcher, what I wanted to do here is show you a roster path where you can stack a high end offense, use the two punt values and basically mix and match your favorite arms up top.
Enjoy the slate all – thanks for hanging in as I got this out late – but appreciate the support as always – enjoy the weekend!
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