MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Friday 5/3 – The Key of M. Minor

MLB DFS Pitching: Friday, 5/3

Welcome back to the Friday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

We have a rather large 13-game slate on tap tonight, which means 26 pitchers taking the hill for their respective teams. I’m only to suggest seven pitchers today, and I am usually pretty picky when it comes to pitchers I’ll endorse. This is by far one of the best pitching slates we’ve had in weeks so I had a hard time keeping it only at seven and there are a couple of really good pitchers that I’m going to write up today.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

The new article format allows me to go into a little more detail with each pitching recommendation and help you understand why I am on each pitcher.  I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Tyler Glasnow (-190) vs. Dan Straily 

Kyle Gibson vs. James Paxton (-150)

Jeremy Hellickson vs. Jerad Eickhoff (-165)

Brett Anderson vs. Joe Musgrove (-110)

Yusei Kikuchi vs. Shane Bieber (-150)

Jorge Lopez vs. Matt Boyd (-145)

Tyler Beede vs. Sonny Gray (-150)

Kevin Gausman (-140) vs. Jose Urena

Trent Thornton vs. Mike Minor (-150)

Chris Sale (-170) vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Steven Matz. vs. Brandon Woodruff (-125)

Robbie Ray vs. Tyler Anderson (-100)

Clayton Kershaw (-150) vs. Eric Lauer

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Clayton Kershaw (11.3k FD, 10.1k DK) @ San Diego

Season Stats: 2.25 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 59.6 GB%, 28.8 K%

It’s only been three starts, but the early returns are good for the man who was the best pitcher in baseball for a several year stretch.   Kershaw’s has not been overpowering hitters but is still striking them out a rate of one per inning and his curveball is one of the filthiest pitches in the game.

I watched his last start against my beloved Pirates and he had them looking silly with bad swings and breaking balls in the dirt. He looked like the Kershaw of old to me in that game, going seven innings with eight strikeouts and allowing only one run on four hits.

Perhaps the most promising thing was that he was allowed to crack the 100 pitch mark (101 to be exact) and pitch deep into the game. His superb groundball rate so far this season means that even when he’s not whiffing batters, he’s getting them to roll over pitches and induce some easy outs.

Despite being on the road, he’s still a solid favorite to win, and I think he provides the most safety of any starter tonight. The Padres have a few solid righty bats he will have to be careful with, but they also strike out 27% of the time and I think Kershaw pitches another gem here. The Padres implied run total of 3.08 is the lowest on the slate, too. He’s expensive on FanDuel and I see why a case could be made to pay down to a few of these other solid options over there, but he’s my cash game lock for SP1 on DraftKings.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot

Chris Sale (9.9k both sites) @ Chicago White Sox

Season Stats: 6.30 ERA, 5.22FIP, 44 GB%, 22 K%

Chris Sale is 0-5 this season. Take a second to let that sink in. His season stats look bad, but you have to remember that he has a long track record of being a dominant pitcher, a guy who 36% K rate and a 15% swinging strike rate. His last two starts we’ve seen some increased velocity on his fastball and a major uptick in strikeouts with 18 over his last 12 innings.

He’s going to dominate sooner rather than later and tonight looks like the perfect spot for him to nail down his first win and reclaim his status as one of the elite pitchers in baseball. The White Sox are a team that we can continue to target with left-handed pitching as they have the lowest wOBA on the slate against lefties (.202) and are striking out 24% of the time.

I’m not a big narrative guy, but if you need one to get you on Sale then consider that he’s returning to the park where he pitched the first seven seasons of his career. His appeal to me is ownership, because with this many good pitchers on the board tonight, I don’t know how many people are going to roll the dice on Sale with his poor current form. I think he’s well worth some shares tonight and if he does, in fact, dominate then we won’t see him under 10k again this season. Buy low now while you still can!

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot

Mike Minor vs. Toronto

Season Stats: 2.88 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 41.7 GB%, 24 K%

Some here at FantasyCPR might say I have an unhealthy obsession with Mike Minor (which is obviously not true). Others might continue to say that regression is coming for Minor and that he’s pitching at an unsustainable rate based on his lack of previous success. Only time will tell if this 31-year old journeyman has indeed figured out how to be a top-of-the-rotation arm or not. I do know that he’s drawing interest from some teams around the league as a trade target already and turning some heads with his new and improved changeup.

Minor has been doing it so far this year with excellent control, locating his fastball and changeup in the right spots to avoid hard contact (33% HC rate). He’s still not a strikeout pitcher, but he did strike out 13 Mariners in his last start and faces a Blue Jays team tonight that whiffs 27% of the time. He’s mixing his pitches so well and keeping hitters off balance (as seen in the video).

There’s some risk here with Minor still giving up a good amount of fly balls and the Jays have some power from the right side of the plate, but I’ve seen enough from Minor this season to believe that he has the confidence in his pitches to shut down any lineup (and has already done so against Seattle, Houston, and Arizona) so I definitely think he can do it again tonight against the Blue Jays, too.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot

Matt Boyd (10.4k FD, 9.3k DK) vs. Kansas City

Season Stats: 3.13 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 39.0 GB%, 31.8 K%

Matt Boyd is yet another lefty who has emerged a bit out of nowhere to post some awesome stats so far. His FIP suggests that his solid ERA of 3.13 could be even lower and the guy is striking out hitters like an ace thus far. At this point in the season, we have to try to figure out if this is sustainable or just a product of a small sample size. Can he keep it going or is he just starting out hot and hitters will eventually adjust?

I try looking for major changes that pitchers have made to their repertoire to first see why they might be having new and improved success when compared with prior seasons. For Boyd, it looks like he’s almost entirely abandoned his changeup and curveball and is throwing his slider close 40% of the time which is something another lefty who emerged last season as a big-time strikeout pitcher did (Patrick Corbin).

Throwing more sliders has resulted in more strikeouts and he’s sporting a nifty 41% whiff rate with his so far this year. Some baseball guys will tell you that it’s too hard on a pitchers arm to throw that many breaking balls, so we will have to keep an eye on it in the long term, but in the short term all I know is he’s pitching really well right now with his fastball-slider combo and having success so I don’t see him changing that approach any time soon.

The matchup with KC isn’t an easy one (just ask Blake Snell what they can do when they’re locked in against lefties), but it’s certainly not one that I’m willing to fade Boyd in either. James Paxton whiffed 12 Royals just a few weeks ago so we’ve seen dominated by good left-handed pitching, too. I love the ownership on Boyd tonight as I think he’ll likely get overlooked with all the other big names on the slate.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Shane Bieber (9.4k FD, 8k DK) vs. Seattle

Season Stats: 3.68 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 34.7 GB%, 27.6 K%

I know his FanDuel price is NOT cheap, but at 8k on DK, Bieber is in play for me as my SP2 tonight. He’s been really solid in his sophomore season for the Tribe, with an impressive K rate that you can’t ignore. He’s only had one bad start (against Atlanta) and four really good starts this year including an impressive six-inning win against these Mariners back on April 16th.

There’s definitely some risk here as Bieber has been more of a fly-ball pitcher and last year was really vulnerable to left-handed hitters. He’s pitching in his home park, which is a great stadium for left-handed power and the Mariners have some guys who are home run hitters.

Having said all that, I do think we can continue to attack Seattle with solid pitchers at really low ownership based on the perception that Seattle’s offense is elite. And while I do think they are good, I don’t think they are a top 3 offense, which they have been statistically so far. Their 25% K rate means they are still likely to strike out enough to give Bieber some upside in this matchup.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Joe Musgrove (8.7k FD, 7.2k DK) vs. Oakland

Season Stats: 1.54 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 47.4GB%, 23.0 K%

Joe is my dude! Yes, I am a Pirates homer, but I’m not letting that bias affect my judgment here. Musgrove has been solid this season so far for the Buccos with an elite ERA of 1.54 and a FIP of 2.50 that suggests that it’s not smoke and mirrors.

He’s not a strikeout pitcher by any means, but he does have elite control and a promising ground ball rate working for him. He throws four or even five pitches and locates them well, keeping hitters off balance. He’s really learned how to pitch the last few years and it’s showing with his results.

The matchup here is really ideal for Joe, as he’s facing an Oakland team that will send 7-8 righties to the plate and lose their DH in the lineup, too. PNC Park has a spacious left field that suppresses right-handed power, which also works in Musgrove’s favor. I love watching Joe pitch, he’s a bulldog who can gut out 6-7 solid innings even if he doesn’t have his best stuff. His price on DK makes him an appealing SP2.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Jerad Eickhoff (8.6k FD, 7.4k DK) vs. Washington

Season Stats: 2.12 ERA, 1.65 FIP, 43.6 GB%, 30.8 K%

I have to acknowledge that we are working with a fairly small sample size here with Eickhoff (17 innings over two starts and one relief appearance) when compared with the other pitchers in this article. But these numbers are hard to dismiss and Eickhoff isn’t coming out of nowhere. He was a rising prospect in the Phillies rotation before injuries derailed his entire 2018 season.

Eickhoff has a really nice curveball that he’s using to freeze right-handed hitters and rack up a 36% strikeout rate against them. The matchup here isn’t ideal at first glance, but consider that the Nationals best hitter, Juan Soto, has been battling an injury and might not be in the lineup again today. If that’s the case, they will likely be sending 6-7 righties to the plate tonight against Eickhoff and they’re already without their best right-handed bat with Anthony Rendon injured, too.

He’s the cheapest guy I like on FanDuel and his price makes him an appealing SP2 option on DK for tournaments. He’s not quite as safe as Musgrove, but has more strikeout upside I think for GPPs.

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can of the Night

Tyler Anderson vs. Arizona

Poor Tyler Anderson! This kid went from being a guy who looked like he had figured things out last year and was trending up as a reliable arm for the Rockies to a guy who just can’t get anyone out in 2019. He’s allowed five earned runs or more in each of his four starts this season and has to take the hill tonight in his home park at Coors Field, a task that isn’t easy even for elite pitchers who are pitching well.

He’s walking too many guys (something he’s always battled) and getting hit hard, allowing 6 home runs in only 16 innings so far this year. He has to face an Arizona lineup today that is loaded with good right-handed hitters and a really good lefty in David Peralta. The D-Backs will likely be a popular stack tonight, but for good reason as Anderson is struggling badly and is a guy I would stack against even if he wasn’t pitching in Coors tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Kershaw-Musgrove, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Sale-Eickhoff.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. Kershaw
2. Minor
3. Bieber (SP2)
4. Musgrove (SP2)
5. Sale

GPP Rankings

1. Sale
2. Boyd
3. Eickhoff (SP2)
4. Kershaw
5. Minor

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!