Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top MLB DFS Value Plays – Saturday, May 4th
Daily Fantasy Baseball is in full swing, and whether you play on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, or Fantasy Draft, this article is designed to help you find the best value plays across the board for today’s slate. These low salary targets are my top players to help you roster your stud bats and pitchers.
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While most of our content is site specific, whether it be for hitting or pitching, this article is going to be different. What I will do here, is evaluate potential value plays for that particular day, across the four major DFS sites.
So the plan of attack here is, first I will highlight my top value plays for Yahoo and Fantasy Draft. I will dig up certain plays that I think fit their scoring systems, and possible flaws in pricing. I will then do the same for FanDuel, and then for DraftKings.
Finally after I break down my favorites from each site specifically, I will then finish up with top overall multi-site value plays. These are the top players viable across the industry, who are in line to out produce their respective salary, no matter what the site. All of these plays are just simply the best value plays that stand out across the industry, regardless of site.
Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Value Plays – Yahoo!
2B – Wilmer Flores – Arizona Diamondbacks – $12
Flores got the scoring started last night at Coors Field, as he drove in two runs with a double in the second inning. At just 27-year-old, it feels like Flores has been around forever, and the right-hander remains a power threat against left-handed pitching. The Rockies will have another lefty out there tonight in Kyle Freeland.
With the usual massive price bumps on FanDuel we normally see for Coors Field, surprisingly Flores once again looks to present the best the value as he did yesterday. He is simply too cheap for this match-up with Freeland at just $3,100. Here on Yahoo, this game is not priced up as much as it is elsewhere, and while I five man stacked the Rockies last night here, I think I will be on the Diamondbacks side tonight.
SP – Gio Gonzalez – Milwaukee Brewers – $29
Yes it is risky, but at first look today, I am not sure there are any pitchers that I want to pay up for on these two pitcher sites. Going with two cheap pitchers here will allow me to stack up Coors Field with an eye on Diamondbacks, and maybe sprinkle in some Red Sox lefties against White Sox rookie Manny Banuelos.
Gonzalez just has one start under his belt thus far since joining the Brewers, and it was against the same team he faces today in the New York Mets. He will be at home this time, and so far the Mets are struggling to put up runs in this series. Gio scattered six hits through five innings in that first start, allowing two earned runs and striking out just two. If he can get stretched to the sixth or further and pick up few more K’s this time around, Gonzalez could hit value here.
Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Value Plays – FantasyDraft
SP – Chris Bassitt – Oakland Athletics – $15,100
Bassitt has been nothing short of fantastic through his first two starts, and he finds himself in another favorable match-up today against the light-hitting Pirates offense. Even with Josh Bell heating up, and Gregory Polanco back, this team was still on the wrong side of a lopsided loss yesterday at home in the first game of this interleague series with the A’s.
Bassitt is somehow the most expensive pitcher on this slate, even more than Patrick Corbin which seems absurd. Therefore, being slotted right in the middle here on Fantasy Draft looks to be presenting some tremendous value.
Bassitt has only given up one run in 12 innings for an early 0.75 ERA, but he has surprisingly struck out 16 in this span, striking out nine Blue Jays in his last start through seven innings. If he can continue to strike guys out he will easily make value here. $8K on DraftKings is very fair in my opinion as well.
IF – Ian Kinsler – San Diego Padres – $5,500
Not quite a free square like the $4,600 or whatever he was yesterday, but this is close enough. Kinsler helped me into the cash last night on Fantasy Draft, as he connected for a third inning home run off of Clayton Kershaw. Tonight another lefty in veteran Rich Hill will be on the mound for the Dodgers, and that means Kinsler should find himself in the lead off spot once again.
Kinsler has been bad enough at times this season to lose playing time, as his batting average sits below the Mendoza line at .179. The homer last night was only the third of the season for Kinsler, but if I am going to play him against Kershaw, I am going to play him again against Hill.
Hill was solid in his first start this season last week, scattering five hits and striking out six through six innings, while allowing just one earned run. That was against the Pirates however, and this Padres offense is built to crush lefties. This will be a much tougher task tonight for Hill.
Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Value Plays – FanDuel
3B – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays – $2,700
Mike Minor was lights out once again at home against these Jays last night, but things will likely be a little different for both offenses, as the Rangers and Toronto will obviously see more runs scored today than the zero total that were scored in regulation last night. They are scoreless through ten right now, and we still do not know who will pitch for Toronto now tonight as I write this, but Lance Lynn will take the mound for the Texas tonight, and I am looking at these cheap Jays here once again.
Vlad Jr. is now getting the price drops everywhere, as he continues to have mediocre games, and his early batting average has dipped to .174 now after his 1-for-5 night to this point. There are so many value plays at third base on this slate, and this could be a great GPP pivot play if today is the day that Guerrero finally breaks out.
1B – Rowdy Tellez – Toronto Blue Jays – $2,700
Sticking with cheap Jays and picking on Lance Lynn a little bit more, these two cheap bats in Tellez and Vlad Jr. in the middle of this lineup have some appeal. Tellez also is 1-for-5, as he ripped a line drive right to the center fielder for the final out of the 10th inning, but the rookie has hit five home runs off of right-handed pitching this season, and Lynn is likely to give up one or two here.
I probably will not stack much more than these two as far as Jays go, and it all depends on where I go for pitching, but a two-man value stack here could fit will with a full on Diamondbacks stack. With not much value here for bats today, and everyone likely jumping on the Giants/Reds value chalk after the 23 run outburst yesterday, again these two Jays look like solid GPP pivots.
Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Value Plays – DraftKings
3B – Justin Turner – Los Angeles Dodgers – $3,900
I just mentioned the cheap Giants and Reds, and some Giants will make sense today against Tanner Roark, but we will get there on the last page. For DraftKings today, I wanted to single out a couple hitters having completely opposite seasons, but both the exact same price.
The Dodgers will face another lefty in Padres rookie Joey Lucchesi tonight, and it seems like all they do is face lefties nowadays. What that means is that Justin Turner should be right in the middle of this lineup once again. He remains cheap everywhere for the most part, but once we get under this $4K threshold with a guy in a match-up like this it becomes a hard fade.
Turner had a slow start to the season, but he has been heating up a bit over the last few days. Up until last night, he had hit safely in five straight games, including two multi-hit games and a home run. Lucchesi is a good pitcher, so I don’t think I am going too crazy on Dodgers, but Turner offers solid value here as a one-off tonight.
OF – Josh Reddick – Houston Astros – $3,900
While Turner started a bit slow this season, Reddick has just been raking pretty much all year. If I have interest in a full stack anywhere other than Coors tonight, it will be with the Stros as they face Trevor Cahill and the Angels in Anaheim. Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are noticeably too cheap as well, and Reddick under $4K continues to feel like a steal.
Reddick isn’t hitting for power as he has just three home runs and seven RBI’s, but the .344 batting average is pretty impressive. He is only playing against right-handed pitching for the most part, and there is a solid chance his lack of AB’s is forcing him to have better AB’s. Reddick went 5-for-13 in the four game series with Minnesota, and should slide right into the six spot in the order tonight against Cahill, after a day off for Houston.
Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Value Plays – Across the Industry!
Welcome to the most important, and final page of the article. On most days, certain value plays will line up well on 2 or three, or even all of the sites covered in this article.
From the looks of it, I have a piece of every player coming up here on at least two sites in my early lineups, so just because you did not see somebody yet on another site specific slide from earlier, he could be coming up right now.
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2B – Joe Panik – San Francisco Giants – ($3,400 DK, $2,500 FD, $7 Y!, $6,500 FantasyDraft)
The Giants are an offense I target about 1% of the time. Okay maybe if they have a couple of good match-up’s at Coors at some point it could bump up to 2%, but you get the point. Today all of this San Francisco value will be given a much harder look by everyone after their incredible six-run comeback, and eventual 12-11 extra inning win last night. The park factor is favorable, and Reds pitching is struggling everywhere, with the exception of ace Luis Castillo.
I am going to avoid stacking it up although it is tempting here against Tanner Roark, but in an effort to avoid some possible chalk bombs, I am focusing in on Joe Panik as a one-off. Panik is hitting just .202 on the season, but he took Wily Peralta deep in the sixth inning for his first homer of the season last night, and finished 1-for-6 with two RBI’s.
Second base is actually a semi-loaded position today so I really only like this play on DK personally, and possibly Fantasy Draft, but Panik is certainly a viable value play across the industry tonight.
1B – Nate Lowe – Tampa Bay Rays – ($3,900 DK, $2,400 FD, $13 Y!, $7,600 FantasyDraft)
New Rays 23-year-old first baseman is off to a solid start through five games since being called up, and he is really only gotten any price bump on Yahoo. Lowe is a big dude, standing at 6’4″ and weighing 245 pounds, and will be a power threat at some point in his career. He has hit safely in every game he has played thus far, and is currently 5-for-19 with a double, and he picked up his first major league RBI last night.
This Rays offense is still hot, and the addition of another Lowe to go along with Brandon Lowe has been another spark. Tonight they will get struggling right-hander Dylan Bundy, and the Rays stack looks like another solid GPP pivot away from obvious Coors chalk once again. For me, Lowe will be a lock in cash games on FanDuel at this price, and I will likely fit him in on DK as well.
SP – Wade Miley – Houston Astros – ($6,900 DK, $6,800 FD, $30 Y!, $13,900 FantasyDraft)
If you are seasoned MLB DFS veteran like me, is it safe now to say what in the actual eff is going on with pitching in general this year??? Seriously Mike Minor tweaks his change-up a bit and is now Cy Young, and meanwhile aces like Chris Sale and others got off to very slow starts, and now nobody knows what will happen next on certain days.
One thing I do know, is that some pitchers I used to target over the last few years with bats like Minor and Wade Miley here, are now pitchers I want to roster if the match-up and other factors are in line. Miley is not sexy, but he is getting the job done quietly. His K upside is limited, and he faces an Angels team that does not strike out a ton, but they have really struggled with left-handed pitching all season long.
Through six starts, Miley has compiled a very respectable 3.24 ERA, but his 4.52 xFIP does suggest regression will come, but in the three starts that Miley has made it through six innings, he has picked up a quality start in all three. With another good match-up on tap, Miley looks like my SP2 on all two-pitcher sites, and I will likely at least use him for GPP on FanDuel.
MLB DFS Pitching Primer - Saturday, May 4. dark. Next
That is all for today’s edition of MLB DFS Top Value Plays. I hope you like the format, as I think this is the best way to talk about which value bats and pitchers to consider, no matter what site you play on.
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