DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/4 – Your Best Betts
By Jacob Zook
Love, Like, Leave is a DFS segment that breaks down the slate into three main options at each position; a “love”, a “like”, and a “leave”. The love is my favorite play, the like is another good play, and the leave is one I would rather not have in my lineup.
Welcome to the first Saturday edition of DFS MLB Love, Like, Leave. We had another day of middling success yesterday. Our pitcher calls were okay, with Kershaw turning in a less than ideal start (for Kershaw standards) and Gibson giving a serviceable game. Brandon Lowe and Lorenzo Cain both had fantastic games, but unfortunately, my Chris Sale and Ketel Marte hate was unfounded, as they both had great games.
Yesterday was a bad day for home run calls. I boldly predicted that both Vladdy Jr. and Justin Smoak would go deep against a much improved Mike Minor in Texas, and I could not have been more wrong. The Blue Jays got shut out by Minor, who threw 8 strong innings.
We’ve got another lovely slate today, with 10 games on tap, including a later game at Coors that just screams of a barnstorm. Patrick Corbin is the highest priced pitcher on the slate, with very few other elite arms available. Like most days with Coors in play, I suspect the ownership will flock there by the thousands, even though they’ve received a massive price boost.
Without further adieu, let’s take a looking at the DFS MLB slate for Saturday, May 4th!
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/4
Starting Pitcher
Love
Chris Bassitt (8,000 DK): There are days where you want to spend up for pitching, and then there are days like today. Corbin is the only true ace on this board, and he gets a very tough matchup against a very good Philly team. Bassitt has been really impressive in his first two starts this season, combining for 12 innings and 16 strikeouts. Pittsburgh isn’t an offense that you should fear, and Bassitt could easily be the highest scoring pitcher on this slate.
Like
Tanner Roark (6,700 DK): San Francisco is bad. Like really, really bad. That’s a good thing for us today, as it brings Tanner Roark into play. I normally try to avoid Roark, who carries a disappointing 1.67 WHIP and a pedestrian 8.6 K/9 this season. He may not be the flashiest of pitchers, and he lacks the elite upside of some of the higher end options, but against this San Fran offense, every pitcher is in play.
Leave
Patrick Corbin (10,400 DK): As I mentioned above, Corbin gets a very tough matchup against the Phillies. Hoskins hit another home run yesterday, bringing his total to 10, and there’s still another 3 or 4 all-stars Corbin will have to get through. Corbin can rack up strikeouts in a hurry (10.6 K/9), so there is always the chance he does fantastic, but in this matchup, I think it’s best not to take the risk.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/4
First Baseman
Love
Ji-Man Choi (4,400 DK): Like I mentioned yesterday, I love attacking Baltimore pitching, and the Tampa Bay bats continue to be priced very fairly. Choi is hitting very well this season, carrying a .859 OPS. The only thing he hasn’t contributed much of is power having only hit two home runs, but with Tommy Pham and Brandon Lowe hitting as good as they are, he should have plenty of chances to drive in a bunch of runs. The Tampa Bay stack is once again one of my favorites of the day and a good way to separate yourself from the Coors crowd.
Like
Pete Alonso (4,900 DK): Alonso continues to be a pleasant surprise this season, having reached in 8 straight. He still has an OPS over 1.000, and he gets another matchup against Gio Gonzalez. The more Alonso sees of Gonzalez, the more likely he is to get a hold of one, and another matchup against him this quickly has me chomping at the bit for some Alonso ownership.
Leave
Eric Thames (4,800 DK): On paper, this matchup looks good for Thames. He gets to face a right-handed pitcher, which he specializes against, and he gets to play at home, in a park that yields a lot of homers. Zach Wheeler is no slouch though, and although he’s been as different as night and day in his starts this year, there’s always a good chance you get the ace version of Wheeler. Thames is a play best left to GPP’s, and even then I’m not the biggest fan.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/4
Second Baseman
Love
Brandon Lowe (4,800 DK): Lowe is another Tampa Bay bat that I’m all over tonight, and he won’t be the last. I recommended him last night, and he rewarded owners by reaching base multiple times and also scoring multiple runs, good for 14 DK points. He’s recently been moved to the leadoff spot, and if continues to get on base, the guys behind him will continue to drive him in.
Like
Eric Sogard (4,400 DK): Sogard, Toronto’s new leadoff spark-plug, continues to get on base like its nobody’s business. He has 7 XBH to go along with a .370 average and an amazing 1.094 OPS. The honeymoon phase will wear off eventually for Sogard, who has shown little sign that he has this ability in the past, but until that day comes, continue to roster him. He’s only dropped one 0 in the 13 games he’s played for Toronto and has 7 games with 10 more DK points. Lance Lynn is nothing special, so look for Sogard to keep the ball rolling, or should I say flying, today.
Leave
Ketel Marte (5,300 DK): Yes, yes, Marte hit 2 homers yesterday and proved me wrong. I don’t particularly care though, as history is still on my side. Marte hasn’t been a great bat at any point in his career, and even though he’s doing better this year, he still isn’t great. Freeland is a better pitcher than Anderson, so look for the ball to stay in the park today. 5,300 is simply too much to pay for this bat.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/4
Shortstop
Love
Jean Segura (4,300 DK): This play is based on two factors. One, I think Philly bats will be VERY low owned, and two, Jean Segura has been HOT over the last dozen games. He’s hit for a .340 average, with an OPS approaching 1.000 over that time. He has also only struck out 6 times in his last 42 at-bats. This neutralizes some of Corbin’s elite K ability, and I love Segura when he’s priced this low. With so many big-name bats ahead of him and a tough matchup on paper, Segura likely goes completely unnoticed. A play like this can swing the tide in your favor. For example, taking Manny Machado against Kershaw last night would have been a great idea, as he went yard at low ownership. Segura could be that play today.
Like
Tim Anderson (4,900 DK): Anderson failed to get anything going against Sale yesterday, but then again, the entire White Sox line up looked off all day. Anderson has still been one of the best hitters in the league this season, so I’m going right back to the well today. He gets a softer matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, and it’s been impossible to keep Anderson quiet for too long this year.
Leave
Trevor Story (5,500 DK): Up until last week, Luke Weaver had been quietly having a fantastic April, striking out 28 batters over 22.2 innings to go along with a 2.38 ERA. It’s always tempting to stack the big bats at Coors, and it can pay off on any given night. Story is a fantastic hitter though, so this is more of a caution than a full stop
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/4
Third Baseman
Love
Michael Chavis (4,500 DK): Chavis has hit the ground running since his call up a few weeks ago, mashing 3 homers, stealing 2 bases, and picking up 8 RBI over that time. His dual eligibility on DK makes him a good play at either second or third today, but Lowe and Sogard are getting locked into the majority of my lineups, so Chavis is my recommended play at third instead.
Like
Manny Machado (4,000 DK): Machado continues to be priced like he’s just some run of the mill batter, and he continues to give DFS owners great ROI. He homered yesterday off of Kershaw and had an RBI double the night before to go along with two runs scored. I’m going to continue rostering Machado until his price gets adjusted to where a player of his caliber should be. For example, Yandy Diaz is priced at 4,800, and while I love Yandy Diaz, he’s no Machado.
Leave
Nolan Arenado (5,600 DK): It feels like I’m either suggesting a Colorado bat or advising against one in every section. Such is the nature of Coors, and such is the nature of the inflated pricing. If you spend down on pitching as I suggested, you can afford to roster one or two of these big bats, but if I’m chasing homers at Coors, I’d much rather look at Charlie Blackmon (5,500) or David Dahl (5,000).
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/4
Outfielders
Love
Nick Senzel (4,300 DK): Senzel played in his first game yesterday, and immediately showed what makes him such a highly touted prospect. While he didn’t tear the cover off the ball, he took more than 30 pitches, showing resiliency and an eye that most young batters don’t have. His price has been adjusted upwards accordingly, but I’m still a big fan of his today. Rodriguez is an alright pitcher, but I think Senzel builds on a great first game.
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Like
Mookie Betts (5,400 DK): Watch out MLB, Mookie Betts is flaming hot right now. He’s collected 12 hits over his last 7 games, going 12/28 in that span with 6 XBH, including two home runs. When Betts is on, there aren’t many pitchers who can get him out, and Betts is very clearly on right now. Pairing him with Chavis gets you a nice little mini-stack, at what is likely very low ownership. I know I keep stressing ownership, but for MLB DFS, ownership is king.
Leave
Joey Gallo (5,200 DK): Gallo is a hitter who struggles to put the ball in play on his best days, and against a lefty in Pannone, I won’t be home run chasing. Gallo is the epitome of TTT baseball, delivering a home run, strikeout, or walk in what seems like every AB. Playing Gallo is always going to be chasing after the long ball, and tonight I don’t think he’s able to hit one.
Next. MLB DFS value picks May 4. dark
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