MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Saturday 5/4 – You Ain’t Nothin’ But a Hound Dog

MLB DFS Pitching: Saturday, 5/4

Welcome back to the Saturday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

We have a classic split-slate Saturday with four games on the early slate that locks at 4:05 and then a rather large 10-game main slate that locks at 7:05. I’ll be covering both slates of MLB action for you with my top pitching recommendations, including my rankings for both cash and GPP contests.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Early Only

Michael Wacha vs. Yu Darvish

Mike Leake vs. Carlos Carrasco

Homer Bailey vs. Tyson Ross

Mike Soroka vs. Trevor Richards

Main Slate

Patrick Corbin vs. Jake Arrieta

Ryne Stanek (opener) vs. Dylan Bundy

Chris Bassitt vs. Trevor Williams

Wade Miley vs. Trevor Cahill

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Manny Banuelos

Zack Wheeler vs. Gio Gonzalez

Luke Weaver vs. Kyle Freeland

Thomas Pannone vs. Lance Lynn

Dereck Rodriguez vs. Tanner Roark

Rich Hill vs. Joey Lucchesi

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace (Early)

Carlos Carrasco (10k FD, 10.2k DK) vs. Seattle

Season Stats: 5.86 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 3.29 xFIP, 33.6K%

Carrasco is arguably the only true ace on the four-game early slate and despite his elevated ERA, most of his numbers suggest he’s been pitching well so far this season. His WHIP is out of whack, too, but a BABIP of .420 suggests that he’s been pretty unlucky with balls dropping in for hits (average BABIP for a pitcher is around .300).

His xFIP of 3.29 also suggests that his ERA is artificially inflated and he’s striking hitters out more often than he did last season. I am willing to trust him in cash games today based on the lack of other available options and my belief that he’s been a better pitcher than his surface numbers show.

There’s no denying he’s had two really bad starts, but he dominated this Seattle lineup two weeks ago to the tune of 12 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings and as I mentioned yesterday when I wrote up his teammate Shane Bieber, this Seattle offense isn’t as scary as their early season numbers would have you believe they are. Lock him in on FanDuel as your cash pitcher where he’s only 100 bucks more than Soroka and as your SP1 on DraftKings.

MLB DFS Pitching: Top GPP Pivot (Early)

Mike Soroka (9.9k FD, 8.9k DK) @ Miami

Season Stats: 1.62 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.81 xFIP, 29.6K%

The early returns on Mike Soroka are good…really good. This talented young pitcher cut his teeth in the big leagues last year, making five starts for the Braves before running into some injury issues. He doesn’t project to be an ace, but he definitely has the skillset to be a really effective major league pitcher and he’s showing that already.

We are looking at a really small sample size so far (3 starts, 16.2 innings), but Soroka is doing everything we are looking for from a DFS perspective other than walking a few too many batters. His groundball percentage is up over 50% and he’s limiting hard contact while also missing bats and piling up strikeouts.

Soroka has allowed only one earned run in each start and has a prime matchup here today against the light hitting Marlins in their spacious stadium. Soroka’s early season form, coupled with this matchup caused FanDuel to price him all the way up to near 10k, but he’s still under 9k on DraftKings and I’m really going to try to smash him and Carrasco in together for my cash games as they have significantly higher floors than the rest of these pitchers on the early slate.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2 (Early)

Homer Bailey (6.9k FD, 6.2k DK) @ Detroit

Season Stats: 5.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 4.00 xFIP, 24.2 K%

Here’s where I am going to pivot in GPPs. I believe Bailey’s opponent in this game, Tyson Ross, is going to be a more popular pick due to his strong outing against the Royals earlier in the season (7 innings, one earned run, 8 strikeouts). I think that performance was the outlier and we’ve seen Ross be fairly mediocre in the rest of his starts this season.

Bailey, on the other hand, has been a more boom/bust option this year as he’s pitched really well several times and also been chased early in a few starts. His underlying numbers are all pretty solid other than his ERA and some really high hard contact rates. I’ve mentioned before that Bailey retooled his arsenal this year, throwing more splitters than sliders and it had been paying off for him. Shortly after I wrote him up, he went out and threw all fastballs and sliders the next game and got lit up by Devil Rays.

He bounced back last game with six decent innings against the Angels, and you’d have to think that he and his pitching coach would continue to break down his film to see that when he throws his splitter and curve more often, he’s getting better results than when he relies on his slider, which is getting hit hard by righties. The matchup here today is against a mainly right-handed team in Detroit, so he’s either going to figure it out, or he’ll get knocked around. That’s what makes him a GPP play ONLY.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace (Main)

Chris Bassitt (9.5k FD, 8k DK) @ Pittsburgh

Season Stats: 0.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 2.93 xFIP, 34 K%

Bassitt has looked like really damn good in his first two outings for the A’s and there’s reason to believe he can keep it going tonight against the Pirates and the rest of the season. I was skeptical about his potential after his stats last year didn’t suggest that he was anything more than an end-of-the-rotation innings eater, but so far this year he’s pitching at a really high level.

Bassitt has a wide arsenal of pitches at his disposal. He’s a bit of a throwback in that he’s not trying to overpower guys with a high 90’s fastball (his sits around 92-93 MPH). Instead, he’s using mainly a cutter and sinking two-seamer to keep hitters off balance. He’s getting great movement on these pitches that are resulting in soft contact or swings and misses. He also has a slow curveball (about 70 MPH) that he can drop on a hitter once in a while to slow down their bats and help his fastball seem faster.

He’s showing that he’s figuring out how to pitch and I’m ready to go all in on him in a good matchup against my beloved Buccos. It’s a pitchers’ park and a mediocre lineup that I think he can stymie tonight. He got seriously priced up on FanDuel (like Soroka) but I still think he’s the safest option there. And the 8k price tag on DK is going to allow us to get a lot of bats in our lineups which is awesome.

MLB DFS Pitching: Top GPP Option (Main)

Rich Hill (9.4k FD, 9.6k DK) @ San Diego

Season Stats: 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 3.89 xFIP, 25 K%

Hill made his 2019 debut for the Dodgers last week and came away with a no-decision after allowing 5 runs (only one earned) against the Pirates. He gave up three home runs (two to Melky Cabrera of all people) but managed to settle down after a rocky start to the game and pitch effectively.

I’m trying not to read into that first start too much (though 3 homers are never good) and focus more on Hill’s body of work. He’s been a solid pitcher in the late stages of his career now for the last 4-5 years after reinventing himself in his 30’s. He had pitched well in his minor league rehab starts and I’m willing to give him another shot here in a matchup with San Diego on the road.

The Pads got to Kershaw for 3 runs last night, but are a team that strikes out a lot (27%) and they don’t walk very much. That plays right into Hill’s strengths, as he is a control pitcher who likes to work ahead in the count and then use his big curveball as his strikeout pitch.

It’s definitely not a safe spot as the Pads have some power from the right-hand side of the plate such as Reyes, Machado, and Renfroe, but I do like Hill’s upside tonight in this matchup.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2 (Main)

Wade Miley (6.8k FD, 6.9k DK) @ Los Angeles Angels

Season Stats: 3.24 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 4.52 xFIP, 15 K%

And here I am writing up Wade Miley for the first time this season! Yes, this is the moment I have been waiting for all Spring! This is where my six-year-old daughter would say to me, “wait, are you being sarcastic?” Yes, kiddo, I am indeed.

Anyway, I have to acknowledge that Wade isn’t really a gas can anymore and that he’s turned himself into a very serviceable fifth starter for the Astros. He’s using his cutter a lot more often and getting a healthy amount of ground balls to get some easy outs and he’s really not trying to strike anyone out anymore – and it’s working!

He’s got excellent control and a solid ground ball rate and many of you know I pretty much HAVE to attack the Angels with any decent left-handed pitcher. It’s purely a run prevention spot as they have a tiny strikeout rate (15%) against lefties and Miley also only has a 15% strikeout rate of his own. He’ll have to be efficient and pitch around Trout, but I think six solid innings from Miley is certainly well within the range of outcomes today and for his price, he could actually be a nice bargain as your SP2 on DK. Consider that the other option is a projected reliever (we know how that can end up) and I think he’s actually our safest bet even for cash games.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2 (Main)

Yonny Chirinos (7.6k FD, 6.8k DK) @ Baltimore

Season Stats: 3.48 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 4.17 xFIP, 22.6 K%

Happy Chirinos Day! The Rays have decided to use Yonny in relief today instead of letting him just be a normal starter (for some unknown reason they keep yanking him in and out of this role). There’s always a little bit of uncertainty in this situation based on how Tampa has screwed us over before with not pitching who they said they were going to pitch in relief, but this feels like a relatively safe spot today considering this would have been Chirinos day to start anyway.

Anyways, this kid has been good this year, just take a look at that WHIP. Anytime I see a pitcher with a sub-1.00 WHIP I take notice. Simply said, if there aren’t runners on base that often, you’re not going to give up as many runs. Chirinos has pitched really well for the Rays this year whether he has started the games or not, with only one bad blowup against the Blue Jays back in early April.

He went five scoreless against these Orioles with five strikeouts in his only appearance against them this season and at his price, especially on DK, he really presents a lot of upside with his ability to strike out hitters. He’s certainly still risky as he gives up too many fly balls and is pitching at Camden Yards, but he certainly has a higher ceiling than our other SP2 Wade Miley. I’m going to fire him up as my top GPP option at SP2.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Carrasco/Soroka for the early slate while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Carrasco or Soroka with Homer (gulp) Bailey.

For the main slate, I’m taking a leap of faith and paying down for a Bassitt-Miley pairing in cash, while I like spending up for Rich Hill in GPPs and pairing him with the Rays projected reliever Yonny Chirinos.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

Early: 

1. Carrasco
2. Soroka
3. Bailey/Ross

Main:

1. Bassitt
2. Miley
3. Hill
4. Corbin

GPP Rankings

Early:

1. Carrasco
2. Soroka
3. Bailey

Main:

1. Hill
2. Chirinos 
3. Bassitt
4. Corbin

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!