Why Now Is The Time to Buy Low on Brian Dozier

Why Now Is The Time to Buy Low on Brian Dozier

Brian Dozier had hit 76 home runs and stole 34 bases with the Twins in the two seasons prior to 2018. From a fantasy baseball perspective, he was an excellent 4-category option at second base and was universally owned. His disappointing 2018 season, in which he batted .215 with 21 homers, burned a lot of owners who were expecting near-elite production. Dozier’s slow start to the 2019 season has chased ownership rates further down to around 50%. Is this a continuation of a decline which started a year ago, or is he good bet to rebound ?

Second base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball these days. So the ownership rates of 43% in Yahoo and 58.5% in ESPN leagues show that most owners are viewing Dozier’s weak April as a continuation of his decline which started in 2018. However, we now know that he was dealing with a recurring knee injury since the start of last season which undoubtedly affected his production. Dozier says he is no longer dealing with any lingering effects of the injury and is positioned in a great Nationals lineup when healthy.

Then what can we attribute his punchless April numbers to this season? Looking at his career stats, the truth is Dozier struggles in March/April every year. He has a career OPS of .680 in March/April, .825 in June, and .870 in August. In 2016, the 31-year-old had an OPS of .617. He finished that year with 42 home runs, stole 18 bases, and an OPS of .886. Dozier had an OPS of .679 in March/April 2017 and finished with 34 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and an .856 OPS. An offensively feeble April has never derailed a healthy Brian Dozier.

Dozier opted for a one year deal with the Nationals which is likely sufficient motivation to show major league clubs what he can do when healthy. With teammate Trea Turner just a few weeks away from coming off the injured list; however, Dozier does need to start putting up impressive numbers soon. Trea Turner’s return could push rookie Carter Kieboom over to second base cutting into Dozier’s at bats. Kieboom has struggled to the tune of a .143 average but is clearly in the Nationals’ long term plans. Veteran Howie Kendrick has a long history of fielding Dozier’s position and is also putting up a strong bid for increased reps with a .959 OPS in 68 super-utility at bats.

Dozier is on the wrong side of 30 for an athlete, and his stats since 2016 clearly show his best years have come and gone. Furthermore, there is no batted ball data to suggest he has been unlucky. His expected batting average is .194 and his slugging percentage is .394.

His health, however, does provide some optimism for an uptick in production during the summer months. His history of rebounding after slow starts and his presence in a solid lineup should be enough to vault him back into a top 10 hitter at second base. That would be enough to justify ownership rates decidedly above 50% at the second base position. With the counting stats he’s capable of in Washington, you may be better served to be early rather than late on a still potent Brian Dozier.

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