DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/6 – Ghost in the Snell
By Jacob Zook
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/6
DFS MLB Love, Like, Leave is a DFS segment that breaks down the slate into three main options at each position; a “love”, a “like”, and a “leave”. The love is my favorite play, the like is another good play, and the leave is one I would rather not have in my lineup.
Welcome back to another edition of DFS MLB Love, Like, Leave. With our first weekend officially in the books, I think today is a good time to look back on our results. The last two days show the complete hit or miss nature of DFS, especially for MLB. On Saturday nearly all my predictions came right, and I was able to pinpoint some massive bats at great ownership. Sunday on the other hand was very different. Tampa Bay got rained out, the Phillies bats did OK, and nearly everyone else put up a dud or didn’t end up playing. On what may be the only positive note, both recommended pitchers did well.
While Hoskins came within a few feet of a homer, neither he nor Harper managed to knock one out of the park. I’ve been struck by some very hard luck in these calls. I will be taking a few days off from them to try to fix the issues that keep plaguing me.
Overall, I’m happy with how the first few days of the article have gone. I haven’t knocked everything out of the park, but that’s DFS. I think I’ve been consistently on the right path, and have just deviated a little bit from what would be killer advice every day.
It’s a new week though; so let’s put everything else behind us, and dive into the first Monday edition of DFS MLB Love, Like, Leave.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/6
Starting Pitcher
Love
Marcus Stroman (8,000 DK): Stroman may be the most hard luck pitcher of the season, somehow possessing a 1-4 record with a minuscule 2.20 ERA. While it isn’t quite as bad, that is eerily similar to what happened to Jacob DeGrom last year. Stroman carries a K/9 of 8.6, and a fantastic WHIP of 1.2, which is inflated due to his last start, which was poor. Minnesota doesn’t scare me, and I think Stroman delivers a great outing today, and also picks up the win.
Like
Blake Snell (9,700 DK): So it turns out that Blake Snell is human after all. He got roughed up by KC last week, giving up 7 runs over only 3 innings. If you remove this anomaly, Snell still carries a fantastic 2.56 ERA, and a K/9 north of 10. Snell will be just fine, and I suspect he gets back on track against a suspect Diamondbacks offense.
Leave
Walker Buehler (9,400 DK): Buehler has been nothing remarkable this season, which should be viewed as a major disappointment. I know a lot of people who had him pegged as a Cy Young candidate, but he has taken a step backwards, instead of forwards. He has a xFIP of 4.48 and a FIP of 3.38, which both suggest he is due for some positive regression, but his 12.5 K-BB% is scary. He’s not striking out batters at a clip that could even be considered decent (24 in 29.1 innings), so his price of 9,400 seems to be a little inflated.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/6
First Baseman
Love
Justin Smoak (4,200 DK): Blue Jays bats always seem priced too low to me, but then I remember how bad they’ve been this year. Eventually you have to suspect they start putting it all together, and a home matchup against left-handed hurler Martin Perez could be when it finally happens. Smoak has at least been decent this year, hitting .252 with a .816 OPS. Many people have the Blue Jays on their red list, so their ownership shouldn’t be too high. This is a good spot for the bats today, and it all starts with Smoak hitting cleanup.
Like
Freddie Freeman (4,700 DK): What isn’t there to love about Freddie Freeman? The dude can do it all, and he is consistently underrated by the rest of the world. Like I mentioned during my pitcher breakdown, Buehler has been nothing special this year, and Freeman had an OPS of .923 against LHP last season. He loves hitting at home (.895 OPS in 2018), and he loves hitting lefties, so Freeman is a great play today. He may not be the safest cash play, but if you want to take down a GPP, you need to take some risks, and Freeman is as good a risk as there is.
Leave
Pete Alonso (5,000 DK): I was right about Alonso once again yesterday, as he failed to do anything of note. His price has jumped up into the elite levels recently, but Chris Paddack has been fantastic all year. I think Alonso fails to do much of anything once again.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/6
Second Baseman
Love
Jose Altuve (4,400 DK): Wow. I know Altuve has had a slow start to the season, but seeing him priced down with the likes of Bote, Sogard and Mike Moustakas (against Scherzer!) seems like a massive over-correction. The DK algorithm sometimes allows amazing players to fall through the cracks due to slow recent production, like Manny Machado and now Jose Altuve. We all know how Machado paid off our faith, with a massive 2 homer game. Altuve is going to do something like that soon, and there’s no time like the present.
Like
Brandon Drury (3,800 DK): Make way for the best third baseman prospect in the Blue Jays system! I may be kidding about that, but Drury is no joke. He’s homered 3 times in the last 10 games, including a walkoff jack, and he has started to showcase some of the potential the Jays saw when they traded for him. Vlad getting called up hasn’t affected his playing time, and if he continues to hit for a .250+ average while contributing some power, he could stick around for a long time.
Leave
Ketel Marte (4,900 DK): Hey there, old friend, or should I say old enemy? Those of you who have read this article before know how I feel about Marte, and now that he’s out of Coors, I can’t even begin to fathom why he’s priced so highly. He gets what is likely the toughest matchup out of any player against Snell, so once again, fade away.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/6
Shortstop
Love
Corey Seager (3,600 DK): Another elite hitter that is priced far too low due to recent performance, Seager finally came alive this weekend, hitting a pair of doubles and walking once. Seager has a career average of .295, so I’m not too worried that he suddenly forgot how to swing the bat. A hot streak could be coming for Seager, and at 3,600 you don’t need him to be great, just good. Rostering Seager gets you quality upside at a discounted price, allowing you to roster a star bat elsewhere,
Like
Xander Bogaerts (4,800 DK): Oh look, another DFS MLB Love, Like, Leave article that includes me picking on Baltmore pitching. The Red Sox offense has woken up as of late, and with the players they have in the lineup, there’s nothing to suggest they won’t be one of the elite offenses of 2019. Bogaerts has been decent this year, with a .264 average and a .834 OPS, and I think he gets the job done here today.
Leave
Javier Baez (5,900 DK): For much the same reasons as Cody Bellinger, I don’t think I can roster Baez today. 5,900 is an absurd price to pay for a batter, and even though he’s been great all season, you’re basically banking on a home run or he doesn’t hit value. I’m not a fan of ever spending north of 5,500 on a player, so Baez will be staying on the bench today.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/6
Third Baseman
Love
Michael Chavis (4,900 DK): While I cautioned against the use of Chavis yesterday, he gets a much better matchup against Means and the Orioles today. Chavis has been a revelation in his last 10 games, hitting an absurd .378 with a 1.288 OPS, and 5 homers. While much of that is buoyed by his two homer performance on Saturday, there’s no taking away from what Chavis has done this season.
Like
Vlad Guerrero Jr (3,900 DK): Vlad picked up his first RBI of his career this weekend, driving in Smoak on an RBI single. He’s still looking for his first career dinger, and I’m calling that it will come today in front of the home crowd. Vlad is simply too talented to keep down forever, and eventually quality will shine through. If I was making a home run call today, it would be Vlad.
Leave
Kris Bryant (4,600 DK): Historically speaking, Bryant “struggles” against right-handed pitching. Alcantatra is by no means a world beater, but neither is he a slouch. I’m already fading Baez, and will likely have little to no exposure to anybody in this game. Bryant has also failed to become the MVP candidate he was in previous years. Hard pass.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/6
Outfielders
Love
Mookie Betts (5,500 DK): Betts will be my most expensive bat today, coming in at a pricey 5,500. Betts is worth it though. Everything about today screams vintage Mookie, from his recent form to the matchup. Fresh off a day’s rest, I think Mookie continues to breath life into his season, and picks up another multi hit game, also driving in a couple.
Like
Teoscar Hernandex (3,600 DK): I truly think today will be a get right game for a lot of the Blue Jays bats, including Hernandez. He hasn’t been very good this season, but has mainly been hitting out of the heart of the lineup, and eventually opportunity is going to equal results. Today may very well be that day!
Leave
Andrew Benintendi (4,900 DK): While I’m all over a few of the Rox batters today, Beni is not one of them. He’s hit a respectable .300 over his last 10 games, but has struggled to hit lefties in his career, posting a .650 OPS. There are a lot of great Boston bats tonight, but I don’t think Benintendi is one of them.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/6
Sample Lineup
Something new that I will be providing at the end of every article is a sample lineup, made entirely out of picks that I recommend (plus one more outfielder). It was brought to my attention that I may be suggesting a ton of great players, but unless you can fit a combination of most of them into a lineup, there isn’t too much benefit to the picks.
Please note that this isn’t a set lineup, but instead a collection of players I think go well together. Please use it as a starting point, and not the finish line. With that being said, the first DFS MLB Love, Like, Leave sample lineup goes as follows:
SP: Blake Snell (9,700)
SP: Marcus Stroman (8,000)
C: PUNT (3,100 or below)
1B: Justin Smoak (4,200)
2B: Brandon Drury (3,800)
SS: Corey Seager (3,600)
3B: Vladdy Jr. (3,900)
OF: Mookie Betts (5,500)
OF: Teoscar Hernandez (3,600)
OF: Adam Eaton (4,600)
MLB DFS value plays May 6. dark. Next
Total: 50,000, 0 salary remaining