FanDuel PGA: Top Picks – The 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson

Welcome to this edition of FanDuel PGA Picks from FantasyCPR.com. Here you will find players to target for this weeks Wells Fargo Championship, which takes place at Trinity Forest Golf Club, just outside of Dallas, Texas. 

In this article, I will present to you some Fantasy Golf players to consider from each price tier for FanDuel PGA. Some plays will be geared toward cash games, and some for GPP tournaments. Some of course will also technically qualify as both. As we break each play down, I will be sure to specify which type of contests I am targeting that player in.

I will give two players to target from $11K up to the top salary, two targets from the $10K-$11K range, and two from the $9-10K range. After that will come my top value plays from the $8-9K range, along with a couple of GPP flyers to consider for tournament play. Last but certainly not least, I will end the article the ever popular sample lineup we like to do here at FantasyCPR.

I used to give a quick recap here from the previous week, but with MLB in full go, I am forced to scrap that portion of this article in an attempt to shorten things up. If you are ever curious as to how things worked out, my picks along with the other top experts in the field are tracked at Daily Overlay.

This week we have the AT&T Byron Nelson, which takes place at Trinity Forest Golf Club, outside of Dallas, Tx. Basically a brand new course, established in 2016, last year was the first season a PGA event was played here. Always played in the Dallas area but formerly at TPC Four Seasons and others, the Byron Nelson is in its 75th year as a PGA Tournament. This is a wide open course with no trees and forgiving rough, and low scores are expected.

FanDuel PGA: Top Tier Picks: ($11,000+)

Hideki Matsuayama – $11,500 – (Cash/GPP)

Well the first thing that should be obvious this week, is that I am fading the two top names in the field in Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth. First of all, I know Koepka looked fully healthy and back at the Masters, but the track record of him actually caring about a tournament in this position is not good.

I will not be surprised if Koepka simply works on a few shots here, with no intentions of making the weekend. With that thought stuck in my head, I can’t pay the outrageous $12,600 price range. Same can be said for Jordan Spieth at $11,200. Fade City for me.

That brings me to the Hideki-Bot for this week to anchor my cash team. My hope is that he is not too happy with his last two tournaments, and really uses this weekend to hone in on his game before Bethpage Black next week. He could easily go the same route as these other top names may if things go south in a hurry, but this is a course where these guys can excel if they want to.

Matsuyama has not missed a cut since the new season began this fall, a perfect 12-for-12. He went on a fantastic four-week run from late January to late February of four straight top-20’s, that included two top-tens. More recently, he T-8 at the Players Championship in a loaded field, then slipped a bit at the Masters with a T-32. He returned to action last week at Quail Hollow, and T-31.

Patrick Reed – $11,100 – (GPP)

I wish it would go away, but for the last two days while breaking this down, I just keep getting the feeling like this is setting up for a win for Reed. I don’t exactly know why, but I can see him going for it and playing really well here at Trinity Forest.

He is no doubt trying to get it right before the PGA Championship next weekend. as he T-36 at the Masters, and a rough Sunday last week at the Wells Fargo Championship led to a T-28 finish in his only action since. When Reed won the Masters in 2018. he was in the midst of a stretch of five straight top-tens.

He is nowhere near that form, so this is just a risky, expected low ownership GPP pivot this week. My gut feeling about Phil Mickelson last week literally ended up making me sick, and this pick has a 50/50 chance of doing the same damage, but I have to trust my breakdown once again this week. Reed should be fine in this field, but like Phil proved last week, you just never know.

***Also Consider: Nobody.. Fade City!***

FanDuel PGA: Mid Tier Picks: ($10,000 – $11,000)

Aaron Wise – $10,900 – (Cash/GPP)

The mid-tier in my belief is the place to attack this week, and I expect to have as many as five golfers in this range in my player pool this week. With back-to-back top-20’s including a solo 17th at the Masters, and back to defend his title at Trinity Forest, Aaron Wise is at the top of that list.

Never in a million years did I think I would consider Wise at close to $11K, but you can throw relative pricing out the window this week with the strength of this field. He has missed just one cut which came at the Players Championship in his last five events, and he has cracked the top-20 three times in that span. With a win here last year, and the fact that he is playing well, I am using Wise in all formats this week.

Keith Mitchell – $10,200 – (GPP)

Bombers off the tee will popular this week, and Killah Keith is another guy long off the tee, playing well, who sets up to continue his recent stretch of great golf. I think Mitchell will be popular this week, even in cash games, but I never get those things right so I guess I will wait and see on that.

I don’t think I am going here in cash games, although I fully expect him to make the cut. I can just also see this becoming a huge chalk bomb, and am going to choose to limit my exposure to GPP play. Mitchell is already good for Bethpage with his win at the Honda Classic this year, so a slow start for him could easily lead to an early exit to get moving on to New York.

My gut says Mitchell is not that guy, and with just one missed cut in his last six, and three top-tens in that span as well including his win, he will likely come to play. Mitchell shot 19-under here at Trinity Forest last year, and T-3.

***Also Consider: Marc Leishman $10,800 – Kevin Na $10,000***

FanDuel PGA: Low Tier Picks: ($9,000 – $10,000)

Lucas Bjerregaard – $9,900 – (Cash)

Back on the Beer Garden this week. Bjerregaard has been hit or miss since his memorable performance at the WGC-Dell Match Play. He missed the cut terribly by shooting rounds of +6 and +3 at the Valero Texas Open, but bounced back fairly well at the Masters, finishing T-21. This will be his first action since then, so he should well rested and ready to get dialed-in.

With a less than stellar field around him, I think Bjerregaard is a bit under priced this week. I put a ton of faith in him at the Valero and missed big time, but I am ready to give the solid ball-striking Dane another go here. Like others, he should be able to post a great score at Trinity Forest, and this his first time playing here.

Russell Knox – $9,200 – (Cash)

The 33-year-old Scot is always a cash game favorite of mine when he is around this price, and that fact that we have a weaker field and he still sits under $9,500 puts him in near lock mode for me. Knox is coming off of a missed cut at the RBC Heritage in his last action, so that likely kept his salary down. He skipped Quail Hollow, and should be rested up for Trinity Forest.

I am not worried in the least bit about the missed cut. Sure he could totally go off the rails, but this was his first MC since the Safeway Open back in October of last year. His best finish in that stretch was his T-10 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, so I do not really expect him to fully contend here, but twelve straight cuts prior to the RBC Heritage makes Knox among the most consistent in the field this week.

***Also Consider: Thorbjorn Olesen $9,900 – C.T. Pan $9,500***

FanDuel PGA: Top Value Picks: (Below $9,000)

Sung Kang – $8,400 – (Cash)

I have really been missing my value plays for the most part the past couple of weeks, and like a good handful of these golfers, I too am looking to get back on track before the PGA Championship next week. In all seriousness, with so much to sift through in this price range and not a whole lot to get excited about, I have narrowed it down to Sung Kang at $8,400 to be my absolute favorite value play, and by quite a bit actually.

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Relatively speaking about pricing relative to player this week, while I said earlier we have to throw that out the window, I think I really only meant that for the expensive guys. When you flip it around and look at value, I would consider Kang at close to $9K among this field.

Here is why. Kang is in a very similar situation as Knox, in a sense that he is coming in off of a missed cut, but was on a pretty good stretch prior. He has had a few more missed cuts this FedEx Cup season than Knox, but he has also had some better finishes. Kang’s best finish was his T-6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and his overall body of work in 2019 is not that bad. Certainly not $8,400 bad.

Kang has played 11 events thus far in 2019. He has missed just two cuts, and has notched five total top-20’s. If I can put it any simpler, if you are going top-20 half of the time you tee it up, your salary should be over $9,000 at the very least. I will have much higher ownership on Kang this week than most of my top picks when I am all done filling out my lineups, and I hope my simple logic pays off here.

Matt Jones – $8,900 – (GPP)

I thought about playing Matt Jones in cash last week, then ultimately pivoted off of him in favor of another favorite of mine in Kyoung-Hoon Lee. This week, I am going right back to Jones, and going to fade Lee, so you know what to do here. Jones has been more consistent than Lee as of late, and I also like the fact that he teed it up here last as well, and cracked the top-20 with a T-13 finish.

Jones has not missed a cut since the Desert Classic back in January, and that gives him eight straight. His best finishes in that span are his two T-13’s at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Valspar Championship. Jones added another top-20 at the Corales Championships, he comes into Texas off of a T-38 at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. He doesn’t quite fit my cash build this week, but things could very well change. Regardless, I will certaily have some GPP exposure here.

***Bonus GPP Flyers: Adam Schenk $8,500 – Hank Lebioda $8,100***

FanDuel PGA: The 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson – Sample Cash Lineup:

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides. It is not an optimal line-up. It is in fact, just a “Sample Lineup.”  

G – Hideki Matsuyama – $11,500
G – Aaron Wise – $10,900
G – Kevin Na – $10,000
G – Lucas Bjerregaard – $9,900
G – Russell Knox – $9,200
G – Sung Kang – $8,400

That is all for this weeks FanDuel PGA Picks for the 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson. If you have any questions, give me a follow on Twitter with the link at the top of the article.

You can also leave a question right here in the comments, and I will do my best to respond before lock Thursday morning. Thank you for reading this weeks FanDuel PGA preview. Time to go make some lineups, and may your golf tilt be minimal this weekend!