MLB Bets and NBA Bets – May 7 – Can Miami Shock The Cubs Again?
By John Fazio
Good day from MLB Bets. A clean sweep as the system fires a 3-0 shot at the bookies.
MLB Bets saw its main play Minnesota annihilate Toronto while NBA Bets wins with Milwaukee and Houston. More on NBA Bets later in the article.
Using 1 unit per bet and allowing for the odds, either lay or take, MLB Bets is now plus 22.73 units on the season. Here we go for this Tuesday – all games valid regardless of pitching changes unless otherwise noted. All times Eastern.
Chicago (+1.36) powers past Cleveland, 6:10 pm
The White Sox have a weird history in Cleveland – They come up with unexpected wins.
They won as a huge dog Monday and now Cleveland carries much shorter odds. This will undoubtedly keep the public on the Tribe but it looks to MLB Bets like another Chicago win.
The pitchers don’t really support that outcome though. Lucas Giolito takes the ball for Chicago. He’s had some moderately good games and some really bad ones.
Jefry Rodriguez starts for Cleveland posting a good ERA of 2.13 in less than 13 innings of work. He is untested but leaning toward the impressive side.
However the MLB Bets network is picking the White Sox. They may be on them until they lose in Cleveland.
Cardinals subdue the Phillies
St Louis (+1.07) takes another from Philadelphia, 7:45 pm
The Cardinals routed Philadelphia on Monday. The pitching formation would indicate a repeat performance is possible.
The Phillies line started at pick and now is moving toward a small favorite. As of this nighttime writing a whopping 74% of all bets are piling in on Philly, presumably because Aaron Nola is starting. He’s posted an impressive 2.50 ERA in his last 3 starts.
MLB Bets doesn’t agree. His last 2 games were very impressive but they were both at home. The four starts prior to that were rough, including the road outings.
Dakota Hudson goes for St Louis with some mediocre starts and some excellent starts behind him. Being that the Cardinals are 13-4 at home while the Phillies are 5-8 away, the edge should be given to St Louis unless the pitching formation resides clearly on the Philadelphia side.
That does not exist today. At best for Philly the starters are about even – both have a chance to throw a good game. If that is the case, as MLB Bets believes it is, then getting St Louis at pick or certainly at any plus odds is a bargain.
Kansas City (+2.05) really can beat Houston, 8:10 pm
The Royals lost a close game yesterday with a terrible pitching formation. The tables have turned today.
Kansas City now can boast the better pitching match-up. That, coupled with their gutsy performance yesterday, makes this a play with the listed pitchers Danny Duffy for KC and Collin McHugh for Houston.
Collin McHugh has an ERA of almost 10 over his last 3 starts. And it wasn’t confined to 1 really bad game, he’s thrown poorly in all 3 games. Duffy has an ERA of 3.27 over his 2 season starts.
Although KC lost those 2 games Duffy started, Houston is 0-3 in McHughs’ prior 3 starts. MLB Bets thinks the line is too high and the dog should get some attention today.
Marlins shock the windy city
Miami (+1.59) can win again versus the Cubs, 8:05 pm – half wagers in the 1st 5 and half game
The worst team in baseball pulled out a miracle Monday. Miami has their best pitcher going today.
Wow – what was that with the Marlins? They get 3 in the 9th to score a huge upset at Chicago. If nothing else last night has proven Miami is not phoning it in. They are trying their best, and even though they don’t have developed talent right now, this team is 3-0 in the last three starts by Caleb Smith.
Caleb has a 1.42 ERA in those last 3 starts. And believe it or not, Jon Lester for the Cubs is even better posting a 0.64 ERA in that span. MLB Bets will be taking Miami in the 1st 5 innings plus 1/2 a run, and Miami in the game at +1.59. This represents a 1/2 unit bet on each piece, not 2 separate full unit wagers.
San Diego (+1.33) stymies New York, 10:10 pm
Great pitching by Paddack closed the door on the Mets yesterday. Today’s pitching formation favors the Padres again.
Noah Syndergaard pitched a superb game last outing, firing a complete game shutout and striking out 10 batters. MLB Bets doesn’t think that will happen again tonight. The road has not been kind to Noah, and this Padre squad is not the pushover of the past.
This pitching formation on the average modestly favors San Diego. The Padres hold a slight edge in the won/lost standings and are 11-8 against winning teams while New York is 8-13 in that venue.
All these are minor advantages but it means the Padres should be the favorite, not the dog. Public betting percentages are still high on the Mets however, with nearly 70% of the wagers coming in on New York. That is why the lines maker had to put the Mets out as a fairly solid favorite.
He probably could have set the line even higher by the looks of it, although I would expect a value play to come in on the dog at some point in the afternoon. In any case MLB Bets will be on the Padres.
That’s all the baseball plays today but hit the NEXT button below for NBA Bets.
Take the big profit on the adjusted series bet!
Houston +6 against Golden State in game 5.
Houston has tied the series as expected. NBA Bets wants to take profits on the adjusted series line of +5.40 and let the other one ride.
For those following NBA Bets, we took Houston in the series plus 1 game before the series started, and then took Houston at +5.40 when Golden State was ahead 2 games to none. NBA Bets wants to lock in the profits on the adjusted series wager providing the new series price is where it should be.
As of this writing, the game 5 line has been posted but not the new adjusted series price. NBA Bets will advise on twitter and in tomorrow’s fantasycpr article if and at what price profits were taken.
In any case, keep the original series prop bet of Houston +1 game +2.00. NBA Bets still has hopes the Rockets will win the series. This bet wins in that outcome along with being a shield against losing the series in 7 games.
The prediction of both Milwaukee and Toronto winning their series still stands
Milwaukee came thru nicely for us Monday night. The next game lines do not represent a value however, so NBA Bets is remaining without a play until something else develops.
The system won’t lay a favorite over -1.40 so the series prices are too high. And the game lines hold no mathematical advantage in laying the favorite.
You have to wonder how game 1, an easy Boston win at Milwaukee, could have happened after seeing the next 3 games play out with Milwaukee being dominant and controlling each game. Life is strange with sports being no exception.
MLB Bets Recap For Tuesday May 7th:
White Sox +1.36
St Louis +1.07
Kansas City +2.03 listed pitchers Duffy and McHugh must start
Miami half the wager on the 1st 5 innings +1/2 a run – half on the game +1.59
San Diego +1.33
NBA Bets Recap – Take Profits As Explained Above
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