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MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday, 5/7 – Let’s Go Canning!

ByDan Palyo|
ANAHEIM, CA - APRIL 30: Griffin Canning #47 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pitches in the first inning of the game in his major league debut against the Toronto Blue Jays at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 30, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA - APRIL 30: Griffin Canning #47 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pitches in the first inning of the game in his major league debut against the Toronto Blue Jays at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 30, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – MAY 01: Martin Perez #33 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros during the first inning of the game on May 1, 2019 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) MLB DFS pitching
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – MAY 01: Martin Perez #33 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros during the first inning of the game on May 1, 2019 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) MLB DFS pitching

MLB DFS Pitching: Tuesday, 5/7

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

We have a massive 13-game slate tonight so there are 26 pitchers taking the bump. I’m going to give you my favorite five pitchers at different price tiers today, significantly narrowing down the field.   I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end, don’t worry!

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Hector Velasquez vs. David Hess

Adrian Sampson vs. Steven Brault (-135)

Taylor Clarke vs. Jalen Beeks (projected reliever)

Jose Berrios (-130) vs. Aaron Sanchez

Griffin Canning (-125) vs. Daniel Norris

Stephen Strasburg (-110) vs. Freddy Peralta 

Aaron Nola (-110) vs. Dakota Hudson

Danny Duffy vs. Colin McHugh (-235)

Caleb Smith vs. Jon Lester (-170)

Madison Bumgarner (-110) vs. Antonio Senzatela

Tyler Mahle vs. Mike Fiers (-120)

Max Fried vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Noah Syndergaard (-130) vs. Cal Quantrill

MLB DFS
PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 10: Noah Syndergaard #34 of the New York Mets steals the Phillie Phanatic’s ATV before a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on April 10, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Noah Syndergaard (10.4k FD, 10.1k DK) @ San Diego

Thor is the hands-down easiest play of the day in my opinion. He may have struggled a bit for a stretch there with a few sub-par outings, but his batted ball data showed that he was getting really unlucky with a BABIP over .400 and we also have to cut him some slack as he went through a tough stretch of opponents (St. Louis, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Minnesota).

Fresh off a complete game shutout with 10 strikeouts against Cincinnati, Thor is primed to keep it rolling and mow down the Padres tonight (gotta love that picture, right?). DeGrom pitched well in this same spot last night but was outdueled by the young gun Chris Paddack. Meanwhile, Thor faces a much worse opponent tonight in Cal Quantrill, so hopefully, the Mets can give him some run support. Thor’s strikeout stuff coupled with the Padres 27% K rate should mean the potential for a big performance tonight. Lock him in!

MLB DFS
SAN DIEGO, CA – AUGUST 1: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on August 1, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1

Jose Berrios (10.7k FD, 10.4k DK) @ Toronto

Berrios is emerging as an ace this season after he battled fits of inconsistency last year in his first full season in the big leagues. He’s in a great spot here against this Blue Jays team that continues to whiff at a high rate (27%) and was held in check last night by his teammate Martin Perez. Picking on Toronto with strikeout pitchers is a pattern I’m going to continue to follow until they prove they can make more contact.

The reason he’s GPP only for me has to do with his troubling home/road splits which is something that has carried over from last season. He’s been superb at home with a sub-2 ERA but sports a 4.26 ERA on the road. I’m not a huge home/road splits guy in general, but the sample size on Berrios going back to last season is rather large. Perhaps there’s something to it, but if it keeps his ownership down here in a great spot, then I want some shares of Berrios.

DraftKings MLB
SAN DIEGO, CA – MAY 28: Caleb Smith #31 of the Miami Marlins pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on May 28, 2018 in San Diego, California. MLB players across the league are wearing special uniforms to commemorate Memorial Day. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #2

Caleb Smith (10k FD, 9.5k DK) @ Chicago Cubs

I have a confession to make. I have a major man-crush on Caleb Smith and he’s my dark horse candidate for the NL Cy Young this year (is that too bold of a prediction?). He’s at least been one of the best pitchers in the league through his first six starts.

Smith has become an elite strikeout pitcher this season behind one of the nastiest pitches in MLB, his change-up. It’s been devastating to right-handed hitters.

He’s throwing a 93-95 MPH fastball and mixes in a curveball occasionally to keep hitters off-balance. With the wind blowing in today at Wrigley (10-12 MPH), Smith’s biggest weakness (hard contact and fly balls) could be mitigated by the wind.

Some might balk at his price as he’s getting up near the stud pitchers in that 10k range, but I’ll argue that he’s worth every penny for GPPs tonight in this spot against the Cubs. If you’re not willing to take a risk on a pitcher you think is coming into their own, even against a good offense, then you shouldn’t be playing GPPs in MLB DFS.

ANAHEIM, CA – APRIL 30: Griffin Canning #47 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pitches in the first inning of the game in his major league debut against the Toronto Blue Jays at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 30, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA – APRIL 30: Griffin Canning #47 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pitches in the first inning of the game in his major league debut against the Toronto Blue Jays at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 30, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Griffin Canning (6.7k FD, 8.7k DK)

Look at the price disparity on FanDuel! Apparently, they didn’t get the memo that this kid is really talented or they’re just being stubborn about it, but DraftKings quickly priced him up to almost 9k after seeing what he can do in his debut.

The boxscore doesn’t tell the full story here. Sure, he allowed three earned runs and didn’t finish the fifth inning, but he was also on a pitch count and his manager yanked him at only 82 pitches before he had a chance to finish the fifth. He was spectacular the first time through the order, striking out 5 of the first 9 hitters he saw.

He’ll have to improve how he mixes his pitches to hitters the second and third time through the order, but that’s something that all young pitchers need to work on. His stuff is excellent – a mid 90’s fastball that he mixes with a curve, slider, and change-up. The matchup here against the Tigers couldn’t be any better as they are a team full of right-handed hitters and they are sporting a 26.6% K rate this year. I will have a ton of Canning on FanDuel at that price and I think he could actually go under owned on DK based on how expensive he is over there for an unproven commodity. Get in on Canning now before the rest of the field does and his price is finally adjusted to where it should be!

DraftKings MLB
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA – APRIL 23: Jalen Beeks #68 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during a game against the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana Field on April 23, 2019 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Jalen Beeks (5.5k FD, 7.1k DK) vs. Arizona

Beeks is the projected reliever for the Rays tonight after Ryne Stanek likely pitches one inning and exits. This is a dangerous game to play, as Tampa has trolled us before with this reliever stuff, but you can’t ignore his upside in this spot.

For one, Beeks is rolling right now, having thrown 11 consecutive scoreless innings in his last two appearances against the Royals while notching 13 strikeouts. He’s a talented young lefty that the Rays acquired from the Red Sox last year and he’s shown some flashes of having an above average arsenal of pitches.

The price here is really appealing, especially when you consider the D-Backs were dominated by Beeks’ fellow lefty Blake Snell yesterday to the tune of 9 strikeouts over 6 frames. Can the Coors effect the last two days? I’m willing to find out, as Beeks has a positive matchup in his home park. He’s a much more affordable SP2 option on DraftKings than Canning at this price.

DraftKings MLB
NEW YORK, NY – JUNE 15: Pitcher Noah Syndergaard #34 of the New York Mets runs back out to the mound to pitch the ninth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates during a game at Citi Field on June 15, 2016 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. The Mets defeated the Pirates 11-2. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

More from FanSided

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Syndergaard and Canning while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Smith and Beeks.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

  1. Syndergaard
  2. Canning
  3. Berrios
  4. Beeks (SP2)

GPP Rankings

  1. Syndergaard
  2. Smith
  3. Canning (FD)
  4. Berrios
  5. Beeks (SP2)

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!