MLB Bets and NBA Bets – Wednesday May 8th – What A Wild Ride
By John Fazio
Good day from MLB Bets and NBA Bets. Modest winner yesterday of 1.39 units advances the season win to 24.12 units.
The win is calculated by using 1 unit as the base for every wager, allowing for the odds on the lay and take. The Marlin game was a push as we won the 1st 5 innings bet +1/2 a run and lost the game bet. St Louis and San Diego were the losers with the other 2 winning at dog odds. Especially KC which made us 2.03 units.
Due to time constraints the analysis will be shorter, but the plays are the same strength as always.
The profit taking on the Rocket series will be explained in the NBA Bets section later in the article. All plays valid regardless of pitching changes unless otherwise noted. All times Eastern.
White Sox (+1.85) beat the Indians again, 6:10 pm
Today the pitchers are fairly equal if not a slight advantage for Chicago. Add to that the White Sox are winning in Cleveland and they are getting big plus odds.
According to MLB Bets this line should be closer to a pick than where it is. But with Cleveland getting 65% of public support, there’s no reason to set the odds any differently.
San Diego (no line yet) over New York, 3:40 pm
The Padres look good here with their best pitcher Matt Strahm starting. MLB Bets will confirm this play on twitter when the opposing pitcher is named and the line comes out. This most likely will be split between the 1st 5 innings and the game.
Minnesota (-1.06) continues the road dominance over Toronto, 7:07 pm
What a road series these 2 clubs play. Whoever is on the road wins. It’s still the Twins, and MLB Bets will stay with this trend.
Royals Craziest Team In Baseball
Kansas City (+2.12) too good of a deal against Houston, 8:10 pm
Got to love the Royals. Smashmouth winner Tuesday as a huge dog and here we are again today. MLB Bets says give them another try.
How’s this for a crazy meaningless trend: Kansas City is 4-0 last 4 Wednesday games, while Houston is 1-6 on Wednesdays with Peacock starting.
Baltimore (+2.55) good for half a unit play over Boston, 7:05 pm
This crept into the MLB Bets play zone as the line has moved up from the dog getting +2.11 on the opener to its high of +2.55 as of this writing. Maybe it goes even higher. Half a unit play here will win us enough if successful. Will be a full play at +2.83 if the line zooms up even more.
NBA Bets Advises Taking Profits On The Adjusted Series Wager
NBA Bets made 2 series wagers – one made before this series began taking Houston plus 1 game @ +2.00. The other was Houston +5.40 on the adjusted series price after the Rockets were down 2 games to none.
There are 2 ways to take profits on this adjusted series bet which now stands at Golden State -2.35. Let’s use the example of your 1 unit wager being $1,000.
Your holding the Rockets to win the series, 1000 to win 5400. Bet 4477 to win 1905 on the Warriors adjusted series, which locks up a profit of over $900 no matter who wins out from here.
Or you can bet 2350 to win 1000 on the Warriors series, which gives you a free shot at Houston advancing to the Western Conference Finals, breaking even if Golden State wins and making $3050 if Houston wins the series.
Either way is good, your choice. In either case, NBA bets is keeping the Houston plus 1 game in the series open and active expecting the Rockets to at least hold home court and hopefully steal a game in California and win this series.
Rockets Keep It Close
Houston +6 against Golden State, 10:30 pm
This has been an incredibly hard-fought and close series in these first 4 games. The highest margin of victory was 6 points (2 free throws were made by the winner with 1 second left) with one game going into overtime.
NBA Bets cannot find a reason why the favorite would be compelling here. Amazingly, Golden State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 home games. Meanwhile Houston is 12-4 ATS last 16 games.
While anything is possible, a Warrior blowout or Golden State making foul shots at the end exceeding the 6 point spread, the odds favor Houston covering and possibly even winning outright.
The Clippers did win 2 games at Golden State in the prior series so it would not be beyond belief to witness an upset here. Three point shooting percentage will play a big part, and that could go either way. In a projected pick game, NBA Bets is taking the plus 6 points.
MLB Bets Recap For Wednesday May 8th:
White Sox +1.85
San Diego (no line yet)
Minnesota -1.06
Kansas City +2.12
Baltimore +2.55 (half a unit: becomes a full play at +2.83)
San Francisco is close to a play but the negative pitching formation is holding MLB Bets back from making this a release. A sharp line move or pitching change could result in this being a play. If so MLB Bets will send a tweet.
The same goes for Miami against the Cubs. Miami could easily become a play from here and if so a notification will be sent. The 5-2 Cub win is a little deceiving in the margin of victory as Chicago blasted a 3 run homer in the bottom of the ninth.
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