MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday, May 8 – Yeli Meet Helli
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate was dominated by two stand out performances with the first being a no hitter from Oakland right-hander Mike Fiers who despite the 6 K no-no, was actually outscored on the night by the Dodgers Justin Turner who launched not one, not two but three home runs as both players went for 50+ fantasy points on a crazy night of baseball!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Breakdown:
Happy Wednesday all! We get a nice split slate MLB DFS day with 4 games kicking off on FantasyDraft at 12:35PM EST and I have to say, as far as small slates go, this one has a ton of ways you can go about roster construction.
The toughest decision you will likely have to make is which offense do you want to hitch your wagons to as we have multiple high-octane offenses in action with the Rangers, Brewers, Rays, Phillies, Cardinals and Nationals all on the slate while the Pittsburgh Pirates get a date with arguably the worst pitcher on the slate in Shelby Miller.
In my opinion, the place to prioritize on this small slate is in Milwaukee as the Brew Crew takes on Nationals RHP Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson this season is giving up a .304 ISO to LHB with a 45% fly ball rate and has to go into Miller Park and face what is arguably the most talented and dangerous lineup on the slate, that just so happens to be filled with lefties.
Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames all stand out right away and the fact we can roster Travis Shaw at $5.7K in this match-up is free square city and allows you to stack up the top offense and give yourself plenty of salary flexibility for pitching. Every single left-handed batter mentioned has a .220+ ISO mark against RHP since the start of 2018 with all but Grandal having a 44% or higher HC rate.
Listen, you can make the argument that Shelby Miller is the bigger “gas can” to attack but comparing the Pirates lineup and the hitting environment in PNC Park to the Brewers lineup in Miller Park’s home run hitting environment is apples and oranges. This is a spot where you side on the talent – and considering Hellickson is a sub 20% K rate arm, I expect the Brewers to jump on him early and often and get into that Nationals awful bullpen which has a league worst 6.57 ERA.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
With a keen focus on the Brewers bats today, I actually think this is a slate where you can back into your pitching, but with the salary savings you get on a guy like Travis Shaw, you have the ability to still spend up at pitcher – in fact, you can spend all the way up with ease for Charlie Morton ($19.6K).
Morton is the elite arm on this early slate as evidenced by his 30% K rate on the season, 13% swinging strike rate and his ability to induce an over 50% GB rate with a sub 30% HC rate. Pitching at home in Tampa Bay today against an Arizona team with a near 23% K rate in their projected line-up against RHP, should make him the “safe” SP1 arm early.
Now, safe has rarely worked out this season when selecting pitchers in MLB DFS – see Mr. McHugh on yesterday’s slate, so there is always merit to fading for ownership and hope variance is on your side but with a great pitching park, a pitcher’s umpire in Jim Wolf who calls 10% more K’s than the average umpire and a consistent arm in Morton that has put up 20+ fantasy points in 5/7 starts this year – Morton feels like the guy to anchor to considering you really do not have to stretch your salary far to get him.
Brandon Woodruff ($15.5K) looks like the ideal SP2 to pair with Morton on this slate as a -180 home favorite, sporting an elite 28.1% K rate in 2019 with an 11% swinging strike rate. Woodruff has absolutely dominated right-handed hitters this season – over 82 at bats, he has limited them to a .080 ISO with a 31.7% K rate and this Nationals team without Juan Soto or Matt Adams is likely going to be limited to only 2 lefties – Wilmer Difo and Adam Eaton, which sets Woodruff up to dominate here today at home.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample line-up is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
SP: Charlie Morton
SP: Brandon Woodruff
IF: Mike Moustakas
IF: Yasmani Grandal
IF: Travis Shaw
OF: Christian Yelich
OF: Eric Thames
OF: Ryan Braun
UTIL: Matt Carpenter
UTIL: Daniel Robertson
Slate Overview: On a short slate like this one, the ownership is going to be highly concentrated which is why I tend to take the approach of planting my flag and going all-in on one spot offensively. Grabbing 3 or 4 Brewers will certainly not be ‘sneaky’ with their slates highest IRT at well over 5, but how many will max out their Brewers exposure to 6 hitters? Not only are you loading up on what is arguably the best offense on the slate but you are attacking one of the worst starting arms with perhaps the worst pen in baseball behind him.
The fact you can do this, with the salary savings from heart of the order bats like Shaw or Daniel Robertson ($6.4K), allows you to easily pay up for your high K arms as well in a roster build that feels cash game viable with massive GPP upside.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
Pitching or Coors Field. Coors Field or Pitching.
That is the decision you will have to make tonight (or is it?) as we have a handful of high upside aces on the hill and a Rockies offense that is in a “smash spot” against LHP Derek Holland although we have rain concerns with 40 degree temperatures with the wind blowing in.
Chris Sale ($20.3K) had a rough start to the year but the last three stars have proven it was simply a slow start as he has struck out 28 batters in his last 18 innings with a massive 39% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate. Today, Sale heads to the mound to take on the free swinging Orioles as a slate high -240 favorite…on the road. Sale has double-digit, 30+ fantasy point potential and is the clear SP1 on this slate if you can afford him.
Matthew Boyd ($18.9K) may not get the same name recognition as a guy like Sale or Clayton Kershaw, who is also on this slate, but his metrics stack up to either with a 32% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate in 2019 where he has put up 9 or more K’s in four of his first seven starts.
The price is getting high on Boyd and with Sale/Kershaw and Coors Field on the slate, his may not get the ownership he deserves but he is a viable SP1 pivot against an Angels team that has struggled with LHP all season long.
With a home match-up against the Marlins – Kyle Hendricks ($16.3K) is likely the chalk SP2 on this slate, especially after his masterful outing last time out with a complete game shutout of the Cardinals. Hendricks has been simply incredible in his last two starts at Wrigley – putting up 32 and 38 fantasy points against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks and now will take on a Marlins squad that Jon Lester shut out for 6 innings last night with 6 K’s and 20+ fantasy points.
MLB DFS – Stack up Coors?
Let’s just start with the main course here – the Rockies RHB against LHB Derek Holland. Holland is a fly ball pitcher who since 2018 is giving up a .215 ISO to RHB with a 45% HC rate and has to go into Coors Field today – I do not care if it is 40 degrees and rainy, we had similar weather issues last night and the San Francisco Giants put up 14 runs – plus, this is Derek Holland people.
Now listen – there is weather risk here, rain and even some snow so you may have to make other plans BUT with the Astros/Red Sox in “safer” weather spots in similar high totals – could this be a spot where folks move towards lock assuming this game is not playable and therefore the plays go lower owned?
Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story ($10.3K per player) are not cheap but they are worth every penny in a match-up like this and with “cheaper” bats like Mark Reynolds ($8.4K) and Ian Desmond ($7.6K) behind them – they become easier fits within a Rockies right-handed stack.
One of the ways you can afford a top arm WITH the Rockies bats – oddly enough is to stay in Coors Field with an under-priced Giants squad against RHP Jon Gray. Since the start of 2018, the way to attack Gray has been with left-handed batters, as he has surrendered a .236 ISO and 40% plus HC rate against them.
Brandon Belt ($8.1K) feels way too cheap here today as this is a batter with a .200+ ISO mark against RHP since the start of 2018 with a .277 mark against RHP so far in 2019. You can easily pair Belt with cheaper left-handed batters like Joe Panik ($7.3K) and Brandon Crawford ($6.7K) who combined to go 5-10 with 3 RBI’s in last night’s blow-out of the Rockies.
With seemingly every weather report putting this game as unlikely to play – let’s look at pivots off Coors.
The Red Sox and Astros are going to to be the obvious spots to attack tonight but the team that is really catching my eye as the day goes on is the Minnesota Twins. Trent Thornton has struggled significantly early on in 2019 with left-handed batters, surrendering 4 HR, 11 ER and a .275 ISO mark and with a Twins lineup that has Mex Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Jason Castro and Marwin Gonzalez as a salary saver – you can build a potent Twins stack. This line-up is loaded up and down with power, with 7 of the 9 projected hitters sporting .200+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of 2019.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample line-up is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
SP: Matthew Boyd
SP: Kyle Hendricks
IF: Nolan Arenado
IF: Trevor Story
IF: Mark Reynolds
OF: Ian Desmond
OF: Brandon Belt
UTIL: Joe Panik
UTIL: Brandon Crawford
Slate Overview: On the Main Slate – paying up for Chris Sale is certainly optimal if you can get there, but if you want Coors Field, you may have to opt for a slight step down with a Boyd/Hendricks duo to make it work.
With both Houston and Boston having 5+ IRT on the Main Slate, it will be interesting to see how much ownership those teams siphon from Coors Field especially with the poor weather in Colorado.
Just stepping back, I think the fact you can game stack Coors with an elite high K SP1 and the best SP2 in Hendricks, makes this a build I would feel comfortable with in both cash games and GPP’s. As great as Sale has been, we have sen time and time again that the “can’t miss” pitcher – well, seems to miss quite often.
Good luck all!
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