MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 9 – Houston, We have a Minor Problem

Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Wednesday’s early MLB DFS slate started off with a bang as the popular offenses in Milwaukee and Pittsburgh launched home runs from Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas and Josh Bell and went into the main slate where Chris Sale ruled the night alongside a powerful Minnesota Twins HR stack from guys like Jorge Polanco, CJ Cron and Eddie Rosario.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

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As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Early Slate Breakdown:

We get another split slate day of MLB DFS with 5 early games starting at 1:10PM EST and another 4 games kicking off at 7:45PM EST so sit back and enjoy another full day of tilt!

At first glance when looking at this early slate a few things stood out to me – first and foremost, we have some serious wind impacting the games in Cleveland and Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out at 12-15 MPH and in Detroit where the wind is blowing in at over 15 MPH. Oh and we have a game in Coors Field where it will be in the 30’s at game time – gotta love May baseball!

In my opinion, I think this is a slate where you build around your bats and work backwards into your arms so let’s start first and foremost with our hitters and go right back to Coors Field against LHP Derek Holland. We touched on this yesterday but Holland is a massive fly ball pitcher, giving up over a .250 ISO mark against RHB this season and has to navigate through Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond and Mark Reynolds. I do not care that is is cold – I am finding a way to jam in the Rockies right-handers on this small slate against a soft tossing lefty in Coors.

Anytime the wind is blowing out like it is today in Wrigley Field, I think you have to prioritize the bats and although I respect the talent of Trevor Richards, I am going to side with the elite talent of the Cubs roster in an ideal hitting environment – mid to high 60’s with the wind blowing out to RF..

Richards is a fly ball pitcher – over 50% to RHB and 48% to LHB so far in 2019, who has struggled with walk to left-handed batters especially, sporting a 19% walk rate versus only a 12% K rate. Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber make for an ideal power stack from the left side while the right-handed bats of Kris Bryant and Javier Baez would be musts in any Cubs stack.

Much like the Twins last night – look up and down this Cubs line-up and it is loaded with power – with the 1-4 stack all sporting .220+ ISO marks against RHP this season. Richards relies heavily on his change-up, throwing it well over 30% of the time to hitters from both sides of the plate and the one hitter that seems to profile extremely well here is Schwarber – who has a .423 ISO, 43% HC rate and average distance of 331 against the change-up from RHB in 85 batted ball events since 2016.

MLB DFS – Finding our early arms:

Let’s start here – Carlos Carrasco ($19.5K) is the clear SP1 on this early slate and you could argue is the only one worth prioritizing against a high K line-up like the White Sox – but yet, I think spending up on the bats is far more important than paying this freight for a chalky volatile SP1.

Carrasco can absolutely go out and dominate – we have seen it already this season with 12 K outings against the Mariners and Blue Jays where he put up 30 and 40 fantasy points. However, for an arm that costs nearly $20K today, there is also a ton of risk with Carrasco who also has two starts with negative fantasy points – Opening Day against the Twins and a -12 stinker against the Royals.

The White Sox strike out a ton for sure but this is also a very powerful line-up and wit the wind blowing out in Cleveland, where Carrasco has historically been worse, I think you take a stand and fade the chalk arm in tournaments.

It is easy to say fade and play the bats but I still have to give you arms – fun fact, FantasyDraft will not accept your lineup without two pitchers – I tried.

Tanner Roark ($14.9K) is not an arm I would normally recommend and with Oakland having a 5 IRT, there is certainly some Vegas warning signs here but let’s dig deeper. Roark has always been a lineup dependent arm – if the opposition is lefty heavy you avoid, but if they are righty heavy as Oakland is, well he becomes interesting.

In 2019 the splits have been even more pronounced, well above his career norms, with a 28% K rate to RHB with only a 14% K rate to LHB and his .038 ISO to right-handed batters is exactly what you expect from Roark against righties – he does an exceptional job at limiting hard contact.

Not only are the A’s right-handed heavy but they will also likely be without arguably their best bet today in Khris Davis who left the game early last night after aggravating an injury. The A’s do have Matt Olson back, which admittedly scares me a bit however with this game in Oakland with a moderate pitcher’s umpire behind the plate, I think Roark could actually be in play here today at this price point.

LHP Ryan Carpenter ($11.9K) gets the call-up from AAA for the Tigers against the Angels and we can once again attack the Angels with a lefty with the wind blowing in at 15+ MPH in Detroit. Carpenter is not a high K arm (20% or so at AAA) but he has always had strong command and has thrown 90+ pitches in each of his last four games at AAA. Carpenter is dirt cheap and allows you the salary flexibility to load up on bats which is where I think this slate is won.

MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and not a plug and play build. 

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

SP: Tanner Roark

SP: Ryan Carpenter

IF: Nolan Arenado

IF: Mark Reynolds

IF: Trevor Story

OF: Curtis Granderson

OF: Kris Bryant

OF: Kyle Schwarber

UTIL: Anthony Rizzo

UTIL: Javier Baez

Slate Overview: This slate is a total dice roll in my opinion and a great one for a GPP focus because there is clear variance and volatility on either side you want to argue.

There is no pitcher with the kind of upside that Carlos Carrasco has – if he drops a double-digit K game and 30+ fantasy points and you don’t have him, you are likely done for. However if you eat the Carrasco chalk and he gets shelled and puts up a negative outing as he has done twice this year, you are flying past the field and hoping the high-priced bats you have, that Carrasco owners could not afford, carry you to a winning afternoon.

So, who you got? Carrasco or the bats?

MLB DFS – Main Slate Breakdown:

The four game main slate is honestly fascinating for such a short slate as you can make strong arguments for nearly every arm and yet conversely nearly every offense.

When looking at the pitching, you have a ton of name value with Rich Hill and Patrick Corbin in LA and we have our very own Thunder Dan’s MLB DFS man crush in Mike Minor taking the hill in Houston.

However the two best plays may end up in the same game, in Arizona, as the Braves and Diamondbacks play each other with Luke Weaver and Mike Soroka on the mound. Soroka ($17.6K) has a solid mid 20’s K rate but what really stands out with him is his ability to limit HC (under 30% to both sides of the plate) with sub .100 ISO marks to both LH and RH hitters. Soroka has struck out at least 6 in his each of his first four starts and has racked up 23, 28 and 28 fantasy points in his three most recent outings.

Weaver on the other side is an arm I stacked against the last time he faced Atlanta in Atlanta and boy was I wrong – Weaver ($15.3K) was dominant, striking out 9 batters in 5 innings and he has continued that pace with 7 K’s against Pittsburgh and a 8 K’s, 1 run gem in Coors Field the last time out – good for 31 fantasy points.

Over his last five starts, Weaver has a 32.3% K rate and 12.6% swinging strike rate – elite numbers for any pitcher, especially one that is priced this low.

Now, the roof is open in Arizona so there is risk – but with Soroka’s ability to limit HC and Weaver putting up these kinds of performances in ballparks like Coors Field, I think you could take both arms in this game and simply move on.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Bats:

A year ago, Mike Minor pitching in Houston against this loaded Astros lineup would have been an all-in stacking spot but as we know, Minor has re-invented himself this year with a new arsenal that has led to a spike in his K output and has pushed his price today above Patrick Corbin – who would have thunk it?

Vegas is telling us that the Astros are still THE stack of this Main Slate, as they have a 5+ IRT, which is the highest on the slate and with the pricing on this stack a bit too cheap – it becomes a spot where I think you either go all-in or fade (and play Minor as leverage).

Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa are all priced in the $8-$9K range and with Tyler White ($5.4K) likely to get the start – at this price point – you have all the salary savings you need to stack up against Minor with arguably the best pure offense on the slate.

Speaking of best offense – there are some one-off’s here that we cannot over-look with the red-hot Justin Turner ($8.1K) who has 4 HR’s in his last 2 games and Joey Gallo ($10.7K) who yesterday became the first player in MLB history to get to 100 HR’s before he hit 100 singles.

The two man Rangers stack of Gallo and Nomar Mazara ($7.3K) may be a sneaky way to attack this slate as they get the L/L match-up against Wade Miley which will keep the traditional splits folks off them, however these two bats are both sporting high ISO marks with Mazara at .211 and Gallo over .330 versus LHP since the start of 2018.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and not a plug and play build. 

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

SP: Mike Soroka

SP: Luke Weaver

IF: Alex Bregman

IF: Jose Altuve

IF: Carlos Correa

OF: George Springer

OF: Joey Gallo

OF: Nomar Mazara

UTIL: Tyler White

UTIL: Justin Turner

Slate Overview: These two slates look and feel very similar to me as great GPP slates where you are going to be forced to take a stand. Much like we did with Carrasco versus bats on the Early Slate, I think the Main Slate becomes – Astros versus Mike Minor. With how great Minor has pitched this season, I would have no issue rolling him out in this spot, especially as leverage against a popular Astros lineup but I think there is a strong argument for simply building around the best pure lineup on the slate and finding your pitching elsewhere.

Enjoy these slates guys – they should be good ones!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.